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Ideal Roster Breakdown (Math is hard but I'll try)

Discussion in 'University of Colorado Recruiting Archive' started by Buffnik, Jan 14, 2015.

  1. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    We talk a lot about what positions should be the focus of each class. That depends, of course, on both the talent need and the raw numbers at the position. For this thread, I'm going to ignore the "talent" component and just look at raw numbers.

    First, we're working from an 85-man roster.

    Within that, I'm going to make several assumptions based on scheme:

    Specialists

    1 Punter
    1 Kicker
    1 Snapper

    We'll subtract these 3 from the 85-man roster to do the math since no scholarship backups should be signed for specialists, which puts it outside the formula we'll use later.

    Defense

    4-man DL is played at least 90% of the time, so we'll go with 4/22 starters as DLs.
    3 LBs are played about 1/3 of the time and 2 LBs are played about 2/3 of the time, so we'll go with 2.33/22 starters as LBs.
    5 DBs are played about 2/3 of the time (Nickel) and 4 DBs are played about 1/3 of the time, so we'll go with 4.67/22 starters as DBs.

    Offense

    5-man OL is a constant, so we'll go with 5/22 starters as OLs.
    1 QB is a constant, so 1/22 starters as QB.
    1 RB is a constant (we'll see "empty" as often as a 2 RB set so it balances), so 1/22 starters as RB.
    1 TE is the base but 2 TEs is used as is 0 TEs, so we'll say that balances and go with 1/22 starters as TE.
    1 FB is also the base, but we probably only see a FB on 1/3 of the plays so we'll go with .33/22 starters as FB.
    2 WRs or 3 WRs can be the base but we'll go 4- or 5-wide more often than a jumbo set of 1- or 0-wide, so we'll go 2.67/22 starters as WRs.

    Given the above, here's what a roster should look like rounded to a whole number (give or take a player or two from each position group):

    Quarterback: (1/22) x 82 = 4
    Running Back: (1/22) x 82 = 4
    Fullback: (.33/22) x 82 = 1
    Wide Receiver: (2.67/22) x 82 = 10
    Tight End: (1/22) x 82 = 4
    Offensive Line: (5/22) x 82 = 19
    Total Offense: 42

    Defensive Line: (4/22) x 82 = 15
    Linebacker: (2.33/22) x 82 = 9
    Defensive Back: (4.67/22) x 82 = 17
    Total Defense: 41

    +3 Specialists = 86 (fractions suck, so we have to lose a guy from one of those position groups). I'd probably say OL and put that group at 18 to make the numbers work.

    If you compare this with the current CU roster that includes the incoming freshmen, the thing that jumps out is that the team has too many DLs (23). I'd expect that a couple move to LB where we are under at 8 when the freshmen get here. Other spots where CU is under-represented is WR and -- especially -- DB.
     
    GoonieBuff and Darth Snow like this.
  2. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Hmm. You should blog this and put a link to it in all the roster stickies, or at least put in your results. I think it's a good baseline to work off of and will let us know when our roster is getting out of whack.
     
  3. GoonieBuff

    GoonieBuff Not really Club Member

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    Also, if you're going to run an offense with a FB, I'd consider adding at least one more to the count, as even if there are no injuries at all to the FB, you'll want to be able to groom the next one. If FB is really just a luxury, then that's not a problem. Having a guy like George Frasier is a big help, as he fills up two of the spots (one on each side) all by himself.

    I'd also say that an area that can be trimmed a bit from that number once the program is chugging is the OL. Most of the guys are able to rotate between positions or sides on the line, so having a full class signed each year is a big luxury, and not necessarily where you want to use all of your scholarships. However, it's understandable to sign a lot when the baseline level still isn't where you need it.

    That DL number seems really high (the current, not your breakdown). Wow.

    Thanks nik.
     
  4. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    I once read that 16 to 17 schollie offensive lineman is a good baseline. It allows some leeway since there tends to be a few walk-ons at the position, and it allow 3 full squads for practice, scrimmages, etc.

    I wish I could remember where I saw that.
     
  5. buffaholic

    buffaholic Club Member Club Member

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    Strong case for a dedicated RB coach....
     
  6. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    I guess we will see how it plays out in recruiting....
     
  7. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Since teams are playing more WRs and splitting out TEs more often, the way the offensive staff often gets divided is:

    RB/ FB Coach
    TE/ Insider WR Coach
    Outside WR Coach
    OL Coach
    QB Coach (usually coordinator)

    Then on defense, you try to split it up based on similar number of players per coach:

    CB Coach
    S Coach
    LB Coach
    DE Coach
    DT Coach

    That's 10 spots for 9 assistants. Already, that means that some coach is going to have to take on a little extra. In CU's case, that means that Klayton Adams has both RB/FB and TE while Troy Walters takes both the Inside & Outside WRS.

    But for us, we've also got a dedicated ST Coordinator. In 2013, that left Jim Jeffcoat with both DTs and DEs. In 2014, Andy LaRussa took DEs which meant that MacIntyre had to pick up some position coaching with the CBs so that Charles Clark wasn't in a spot of having responsibility for as many as 5 of the 11 guys on the field for the defense (and we usually play Nickel).
     
  8. TDbuff

    TDbuff Club Member Club Member

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    I just don't see the real benefit of having the dedicated special teams coach. I think it's coaches overthinking stuff, trying something new, when they should just stick with what's been working.
     
  9. hokiehead

    hokiehead Gobbler on the Mountain Club Member

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    outstanding analysis, nice refernce for those of us that don't follow recruiting quite that closely
     
  10. buffaholic

    buffaholic Club Member Club Member

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    Ask Elway how those 2 high round draft picks look compared to the two UFA's that carried the load. I don't value the incremental boost in recruiting that a dedicated RB coach over a shared TE/RB coach would give us nearly as much as you and others do. In the end, RBs are 1/22nd of the team (not even counting STs).

    Give me unlimited coaches and I'm with you. But that's not the situation.
     
  11. buffaholic

    buffaholic Club Member Club Member

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    It's the future. Unfortunately, our ST coach has been a rather poor convincing argument!
     
  12. White_Rabbit

    White_Rabbit Club Member Club Member

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    Weird. Alabama and Ohio State both have guys on staff that only coach RBs.

    Oh that's also weird. Neither team has a dedicated ST coach. Maybe someday they'll get with the future and learn some **** about modern football.
     
  13. GoonieBuff

    GoonieBuff Not really Club Member

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    Urban Meyer is obsessed with special teams, so he definitely has his hands in working with them. Just look at how prepared they were for when Oregon lined up for two on the PAT, or when Oregon was ready to do a fake punt. While Ohio State might not have a dedicated special teams coach, their head coach spends a lot of time an energy on it (at least according to the analysts).
     
  14. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    Look at the RBs dominating college football. You are bogged down in the pro debate and missing what is happening in college football.
     
  15. White_Rabbit

    White_Rabbit Club Member Club Member

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    My point isn't that special teams aren't important, by all means we should care a lot about it and spend a lot of time on it, my point is that can be done without a dedicated ST coach who is a **** recruiter and average at best ST coach to boot.
     
  16. BuffUp

    BuffUp W.T.T.F. Club Member

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    All those DL/OL linemen #'s are good. Rotating DL in the championship game really helped ostu stay fresh and win. They also rotated lots at linebacker and DE.. These days rotation is the key, especially on defense.
     

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