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Important Games Down the Stretch

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by wyobuff, Feb 18, 2014.

  1. wyobuff

    wyobuff Well-Known Member

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    After a good showing splitting 1-1 at the LA Schools, our buffs have 5 games left, and just about every one of them has huge implications for P12 tourney seeding.

    Right now, We are sitting alone in 5th place in the conference.

    TeamRecord
    Arizona10-2
    UCLA9-3
    ASU8-4
    Cal8-4
    Colorado8-5
    Stanford7-5
    Utah6-7
    Washington6-7
    Oregon St5-7
    Oregon4-8
    Wazzu2-11
    USC1-11

    We are sitting OK in terms of conference seeding, and have some great opportunities down the stretch ( vs ASU, vs Zona, @Utah, @Stan, @Cal).

    To gain any traction in the conference race, we need to beat ASU - right now, they have 1 game on us, and if we even the series when they visit, and still finish with even records, they'll look at our record v the regular season champ (UCLA or Zona) and compare that with theirs. They have a tough go down the stretch, so I think here we will be OK if we just beat them and move on.

    We are also .5 games ahead (stan) and behind (cal) the bay area teams, with sole opportunities to earn a tie breaker over them the last 2 games of the season. Obviously, by the time we get on the plane to SFO we will know a lot more, but cal is probably the one we'd rather win if we had to split the season. That would give us first cut tiebreaker over them and we wont move on to the second level (they beat zona, as we all remember). They dont have a favorable schedule down the stretch either, with a road trip to the arizona schools, and home vs the LA and Mountain schools.

    Cal and stan dont have a very favorable remaining schedule either - vs LA teams, @Zona teams, vs Mtn Teams.

    Unfortunately, we blew a huge opportunity @UCLA, but that's over and we need to hope that they get a few losses hung on them down the stretch, but they have a pretty favorable schedule going forward (home stand with the bay area and oregon teams, at the wash teams). Unlike everyone else that's in the mix (us, cal, zona, asu) UCLA is playing 4/6 games against the worst teams in the p12.

    Despite the trajectory of our season from early jan to early feb, we are still very much in the mix here and could win (though doubtful). Finishing as high as 2nd or 3rd is very within the realm of possibility, as long as we can beat cal and ASU.

    These other teams at the top are going lose some games too, so all we have to do is hope for a few favors (mainly from the functionally useless up to this point oregon schools).

    We are only 1.5 games behind ULCA (though in a very unfavorable tie-breaker situation), and 2 games behind arizona, with a chance to drop an L on them this week.
     
  2. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Interesting situation we are in right now. It's more important for our conference tourney standing (top 4!!) to beat ASU. However, it's way more important for our March madness chances to beat Zona. We can't afford to go 0-2 in this homestand unless we plan on going 2 out of 3 to finish the season on the road.

    Ugh, **** it, beat them both.
     
  3. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

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    Arizona remaining schedule (ASU inverse)
    @Utah
    @CU
    Cal
    Stanford
    @OSU
    @OU

    UCLA remaining schedule
    @Cal
    @Stanford
    OU
    OSU
    UW
    WSU

    Cal remaining schedule (Stanford inverse)
    UCLA
    USC
    @UA
    @ASU
    Utah
    CU

    CU remaining schedule (Utah Inverse)
    ASU
    UA
    @Utah
    @Stanford
    @Cal

    UCLA has by the far the easiest road to grab the regular season crown. But if CU gets hot down the stretch and goes on a run, it is not inconceivable for us to have a good shot of at least grabbing a share of the title.

    Zona has about as difficult of a run as we do, which sucks for the cats. Luckily we get them at home while they are injured and losing confidence. Going 0-2 is not out of the question for them this week.

    We absolutely must take care of business this week at home if we want any shot at a top 4 seed. That Utah road game scares me the most out of the remaining 3. If we can get that road win and then split the bay area, we will be looking very good for the Pac-12 tournament and the NCAA tourney will be a lock.
     
  4. wyobuff

    wyobuff Well-Known Member

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    As much as I'm hopeful for this, I really dont think we can get a share (unless UCLA falters). If they end up the champs and we have the same conf record, we'd be down on them because they own the tiebreakers on us for both games. But still, a second place conf finish this year after what happened to the mayor would be something we could look back on and be happy.
     
  5. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

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    Ya it would be tough. Basically UCLA would have to lose twice, and we would have to win out.
     
  6. wyobuff

    wyobuff Well-Known Member

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    The ****ty thing is, UCLA will probably win the conf (again)
     
  7. whatthebuff

    whatthebuff Club Member Club Member

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    After watching Arizona/ASU I am a little more confident in our home stand. Both teams play great defense, however Arizona is not a good outside shooting team. Meanwhile, ASU ran tons of iso plays for Jahii Carson while the team stood around and watched him. I think it would take some bad luck or a weird game (like Josh Scott getting clotheslined or getting a metal folding chair thrown at him) to go 0-2.
     
  8. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Beat ASU tomorrow night and I'll be much more confident in how this breaks for CU.

    UCLA could help us out a lot by sweeping its road trip to Cal and Furd. I want that 3-seed and a rematch with the Bruins in the P12T semis.
     
  9. torerobuff

    torerobuff Dancing is forbidden Club Member

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    I think that 3 seed would probably have us not facing UCLA until the finals. It seems like they're on the path to the regular season crown.

    And I just realized that the ASU game is tomorrow not Thursday. That stinks for me, I won't be able to make it the CEC for the game. Get to watch but not in person.
     
  10. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    Game behind Zona and Zona has the tiebreaker. UCLA is the #2 seed.
     
  11. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    Great scheduling. fucla gets to end the season with 4 straight home games?
     
  12. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

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    UCLA has and always will be the pride and joy of the Pac-12 in basketball. They are the national brand on the west coast. UofA hates the Bruins because they themselves are not to that level yet.
     
  13. Eggon

    Eggon Club Member Club Member

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    This.

    Tomorrow HUGE season implications. Plus hate asu (non cap).
     
  14. CUBuffs2021

    CUBuffs2021 New Member

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    So now what do we need to be a lock? I say beat UA and it's a lock
     
  15. SECOBuffsFan

    SECOBuffsFan Active Member

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    Beating Arizona cinches it...but I believe we are already a lock
     
  16. CarolinaBuff

    CarolinaBuff Weekend Poster Club Member

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    Yea I'd say beating Zona would lock it up for us but if we drop that one we probably need to get at least 1 of the 3 road games. Bottomo line I think we need at least 1 win in these last 4.
     
  17. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

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    1 of these last 4 and we are locked in for the tourney. I think 2-2 (depending on who they are against) locks us in to a top 4 seed in the Pac-12 tourney. 4-0 and we could be down to the wire for a regular season crown, if UCLA can drop a couple.
     
  18. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

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    Current record and standings:
    1. Arizona 11-2
    2. UCLA 10-3
    3. Colorado 9-5
    4. Arizona St 8-5
    5. Cal 8-5
    6. Stanford 7-5



    Project W/L (based on win probability)


    1. Arizona 16-2 (@Colorado W, Cal W, Stanford W, @OSU W, @ Oregon W)
    2. UCLA 15-3 (@Stanford W, Oregon W, OSU W, @Washington W, @WSU W)
    3. Arizona St 11-7 (@Utah L, Stanford W, Cal W, @Oregon L, @OSU W)
    4. Cal 11-7 (USC W, @Arizona L, @ASU L, Utah W, Colorado W)
    5. Stanford 10-8 (USC W, UCLA L, @ASU L, @Arizona L, colorado W, Utah W)
    6. Colorado 9-9 (Arizona L, @Utah L, @Stanford L, @Cal L)

    beat Arizona:



    1. Arizona 15-3 (@Colorado W, Cal W, Stanford W, @OSU W, @ Oregon W)
    2. UCLA 15-3 (@Stanford W, Oregon W, OSU W, @Washington W, @WSU W)
    3. Arizona St 11-7 (@Utah L, Stanford W, Cal W, @Oregon L, @OSU W)
    4. Cal 11-7 (USC W, @Arizona L, @ASU L, Utah W, Colorado W)
    5. Stanford 10-8 (USC W, UCLA L, @ASU L, @Arizona L, Colorado W, Utah W)
    6. Colorado 10-8 (Arizona W, @Utah L, @Stanford L, @Cal L)

    Things can really shake out differently but not only do we need two wins, but we need some unexpected losses.
     
    Goose likes this.
  19. wyobuff

    wyobuff Well-Known Member

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    UCLA Did us a solid last night, but I dont think we are going to catch up with them. They just have too many easy games down the stretch. After oregons complete collapse once conf play began, they have 1 moderately tough game left @Stan.

    Even though zona has the tiebreaker on them, they are only up 1 game (which I think we can take care of this weekend). Given their remaining schedule, I wouldnt be surprised to see zona finish 2nd and ucla win the regular season crown again unless we get some major favors from the basement dwellers.

    Last nights win was huge, and the next most important game (in terms of conf seeding) is probably cal. I would say arizona, but I have a feeling they will get 2nd this year, and if we win sat, they will hold the tiebreaker on us because of their win @ucla.
     
  20. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    My focus is on winning all or as many of these last 4 as possible and advancing in the P12C. This is about grabbing a 6-seed or better.
     
  21. Bone Buff

    Bone Buff Well-Known Member

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    Current standings:

    Arizona11-224-2
    UCLA10-321-5
    Colorado9-520-7
    Arizona State8-519-7
    California8-517-9
    Stanford7-516-8
    Utah6-817-9
    Washington6-814-13
    Oregon State5-713-11
    Oregon5-817-8
    Washington State2-119-16
    USC1-1110-15

    If the tourney started today:

    First round:
    Washington vs Oregon State ---------> winner plays Arizona
    Cal vs USC -----> Winner plays Arizona St
    Stanford vs WSU ------> Winner plays Colorado
    Utah Vs Oregon ------> Winner plays UCLA


    I'm just sayin, I know Oregon has played like poo in conference, I still would want no piece of them in a tourney game.
     
  22. cubuffs85

    cubuffs85 Active Member

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    Hard to know especially after 2011. We were all pretty confident that we were a lock and it was a matter of our seed not if we'd play. I think beating UofA *should* get us in, another win is a lock (with the assumption we don't lose to a bad team in the P12 Tourney canceling out this victory). I think if we lose out including the first round of the P12 Tourney, were on the bubble.
     
  23. Liver

    Liver modded mod Club Member Junta Member

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    let's go 4-0. we owe arizona some suffering.

    very cool to see the team respond so well after the injury. tad is the real ****ing deal.
     
  24. wyobuff

    wyobuff Well-Known Member

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    After this weekend (I'm assuming Stan will lose later today) I think ASU has a good enough lead to hold 3rd. We need to be rooting for the utes (and win our games) when we go to the bay area next week.
     
  25. rolandftw

    rolandftw Club Member Club Member

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    I think I'd believe the opposite. We don't want Utah getting another win, unless we do as well. A Utah win and two Colorado losses, would mean CU would be behind them in the standings as well. Colorado is going to finish ahead of Cal or Stanford if they beat either team.

    Utah doesn't really impact if Colorado finishes 4th/5th
     
  26. FightCu1414

    FightCu1414 Fifth year Senior Club Member

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    Do you think it would be better to finish 5th so we can get another win against USC instead of possibly losing the 5th seed?
     
  27. cubuffs85

    cubuffs85 Active Member

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    I think it be better to avoid playing USC and finishing as the 4th seed.
     
  28. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Highly unlikely unless we sweep this week, which is....highly unlikely. We're in danger now of Washington or Utah dropping us to a 7 if we look like the YMCA squad we did yesterday in these next 2.
     
  29. cubuffs85

    cubuffs85 Active Member

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    I agree, just answering the hypothetical question is it better to win one game as a #5 seed or lose in the 2nd round as a #4 seed (to presumably the #5 seed).
     
  30. rolandftw

    rolandftw Club Member Club Member

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    I don't think beating USC or WSU is going to really help CU's resume. Guess it is another conference win. Probably drops the RPI. What we want to avoid imo, is dropping to 7th or 8th in the Conference. Either scenario is a much tougher game (likely Oregon or Oregon State). Really, Colorado just needs to get a win this week.

    I'd be ecstatic with the #6 seed. That means CU gets a win to get to 10-8.
     

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