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JG: What's The Value Of A Blocked Shot

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by Goose, Oct 21, 2013.

  1. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    http://www.allbuffs.com/entry.php/225-What-s-the-value-in-a-blocked-shot

    Seriously, a great read. I know 'Nik & I have had discussions on this before, but I'm firmly in the camp with JG. I greatly prefer straight up defense to the blocked shot guys. This used to drive me insane with Birdman and it drives me insane with JaVale McGee for the Nugs. I think my biggest problem is that 90% of the time, people block shots out of bounds so it just gives the opponents another chance at it (as opposed to the Bill Russell blocked shot which leads to fastbreaks for your team).

    Now there is the "intimidation" factor of having a shot blocker in there, but I'm not sure how much that actually affects the opposing team's mentality.
     
  2. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    That's a great point - all blocks are certainly not created equal. In the book "Scorecasting" they do a bit of a deeper dive on how a block by Tim Duncan is worth so much more than a block by Dwight Howard. Dwight is the king of blocking into the 3rd row, while Duncan frequently blocked a shot to himself or to a teammate, creating a change in possession.

    As Goose points out it's very difficult to quantify the intimidation factor. But if you look the ASU example, they actually allow more shots at the rim than CU. So Pac-12 thug Jordan Bachynski isn't intimidating many people into not taking shots at the rim.
     
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2013
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  3. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    My post didn't post, so I'll try again.

    Having an intimidating shot blocker goes way beyond the shot block play. That might get a break going every now and then or be a momentum play, but it's a very small part of why I love having shot blockers.

    It allows your defense to take more chances because there's someone to make up for it. That leads to more pressure and steals. Also, the altering of shots happens a lot more than blocks. Nothing reduces field goal percentage of opponents like a great shot blocker.
     
  4. jwhite17

    jwhite17 Member

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    Great analysis. It will be interesting this year to see how much risk Boyle will take with pressure defense. I don't expect him to change to a 40 minute full court pressure like Anderson's Arky/Mizzou teams, but I think he will definitely press teams in Boulder to wear them down, especially the ones coming from sea level moreso than others.

    We don't have a versatile defender like Roberson anymore, but we might have a better shot blocker in Wesley and more length at all positions to cause more steals that lead to fastbreaks, etc. Our starters will be fresher with the new depth we have.

    I'm not sure our defense will be as stout in the beginning of the year with all the new players, but we will definitely be stout at the end when the frosh become experienced in Boyle's system.

    I tend to agree with you guys. A great shot blocker is only good if he can keep the ball inbounds, otherwise, it is just another opportunity for the opponent to score again. I believe Anthony Davis defensive skills were the reason Kentucky won the championship two years ago.

    A low FG% by the opponent is usually the best indicator of a successful defense. Luckily, Boyle has emphasized that every year, and we really only struggled with defense during his first year going from zone to man, so it was understandable. I expect our games to be a little higher scorer at first due to more defensive breakdowns.
     
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2013
  5. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    I love basketball season.
     
  6. TDforTD

    TDforTD Banned BANNED Club Member

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    I understand your point, but that's not entirely fair.

    Outside of the intimidation factor as mentioned previously, a blocked shot (even if it's blocked into the stands) gives your defense a chance to get set. Now obviously if you have no trust in your perimeter defenders to get another stop, maybe that doesn't mean much, but people were saying the same thing about Dwight's blocks back when he was carrying Jameer Nelson, Rashard Lewis, and Hedo Turkoglu to the best defense in basketball.

    Keeping the ball in play doesn't always work either. I've seen it be counter productive as the defensive anchor is now way out of position and the offense gets an easy bucket. Without a real way to quantify it, I'd much rather my defenders spike the ball oob and take my chances on the offense getting another good scoring play.
     
  7. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    I wonder how often a blocked shot changes the mentality of a scorer/slasher/pg? Does it cause them to pull up short and shoot mid-range jumpers or pass back out?
     
  8. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

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    IMO the biggest thing a shot blocker does on typical blocks, is fire up the crowd. A blocked shot at a critical point can have a drastic impact on the environment in the arena.
     
  9. Yung Buffalo

    Yung Buffalo Club Member Club Member

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    I agree with Nik on this one. The most important thing that a shot blocker does isn't block shots, its causing players to alter their shots. If you make it hard enough to put up a shot in the paint, the offense will often start to resort to taking longer shots and generally keeping the ball out of the paint. I hate to bring up painful memories, but does anybody remember the effect Jeff Withey had on the buffs last year??

    With that being said, I prefer a sound defensive player who is always in the right spot over a pure shot blocker.
     
  10. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    It got into Ski's head last year when he got a few swatted. He stopped taking the ball to the rim and lost confidence last year. Hopefully he's perfected that teardrop he showed a few times last season.
     
  11. mattrob

    mattrob Club Member Club Member

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    Part of the issue with a guy like Birdman is that he got so hung up on playing to the crowd and looking for the block, that he'd chase every damn shot in a 10 foot radius, leaving himself badly out of position for the rebound. I think there's a lot of value in having a shotblocker to anchor the d, but they have to be smart enough to know when to stay home.
     
  12. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    The key about a good shot blocker is the mental aspect it puts into players minds. Some will pull up and not drive, but some will continue to still try and take it to the rack. HOWEVER, that shot blocker is in their head, causing the player to start to alter his shots on drives (throw up "circus" shots) that have a far lower percentage of going in.
     
  13. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

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    Good stuff jg can you tell us what our regular shot breakdown was (3%, jumper and at rim) and specifically what it was during the two ASU games. Maybe even broken down by half. I wonder if the blocks altered the type of shot we took.
     
  14. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    Yesish- I can break down the 3, jumper and at the rim for the season, but not by game. I will be able to break it down a lot better this season, ie by half, game and by player.

    i'll post what I have later tonight.
     
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  15. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

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    So you aren't a robot. Interesting.
     
  16. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Slacker
     
  17. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    I gleebed him even tho he's not a bot
     
  18. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    I'm still not sold... I think he's throwing us off the trail.
     
  19. Scotch

    Scotch Registered User Club Member Junta Member

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    You really need to learn how to apply yourself JG :smile2:
     
  20. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    So here was CU's full defensive breakdown from last year.

    Shot Type
    % of shots​
    FG%​
    % of Shots Blocked​
    Unblocked FG%​
    At Rim​
    28%​
    59%​
    10%​
    65%​
    2pt Jumpers​
    36%​
    34%​
    6%​
    36%
    3pt Shots​
    36%​
    32%​
    1%​
    32%​
     

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