1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

KenPom: Seeding doesn't matter

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by skibum, Mar 14, 2013.

  1. skibum

    skibum Peed in your Cheerios. Club Member

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2010
    Messages:
    3,037
    Likes Received:
    1,202
    Who’s No. 1? Who Cares.

    Read the full article if you're interested, but the essentials are this:
    1. Seeding doesn't matter for the top teams (think 1-3 seeds in each region)
    2. Overall strength of region does matter

    Or, in other words: it's better to be a 3 seed in a weak region than a 1 seed in a tough region, aka "Gonzaga: don't get pissed off if you don't get a 1 seed, you're actually better off with a 2 or 3 in the west than you are with a 1 in a different region."

    He briefly mentioned that seeding probably does play a part in Cinderella teams, but the overall point was that if you're a team that's in the discussion for a 1 seed, it doesn't really matter if you actually get it or not...
     
  2. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2007
    Messages:
    2,468
    Likes Received:
    471
    Obviously getting a three seed in a weak division could be better than a 1 seed in a good division but history doesn't exactly add up to what KenPom is saying. You definitely don't want to be a 8 or 9 seed.

    This chart shows how each seed has fared over the six rounds of each tournament since 1985:

    Seed1st2ndSweet 16Elite EightFinal FourFinals
    11008770.741.322.814.1
    295.76346.722.810.94.3
    383.747.822.8138.73.3
    480.443.515.29.82.21.1
    569.6375.44.32.20
    668.538133.32.21.1
    764.119.66.5000
    845.79.86.53.31.11.1
    954.33.31.1000
    1035.917.46.5000
    1131.5124.32.200
    1231.515.21.1000
    1319.64.30000
    1416.32.20000
    154.300000
    16000000
     
    FrankRizzo, Tractor and Buffnik like this.
  3. Medford M.

    Medford M. Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2013
    Messages:
    734
    Likes Received:
    133
    History can almost be set aside at the point though because parity is at an all time high. A 16 over a 1 will happen in the next 10 years. I would be curious what that chart would look like over the last 10 seasons.
     
  4. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2009
    Messages:
    25,787
    Likes Received:
    1,359
    The 8 seed is such a strange anomaly.
     
  5. skibum

    skibum Peed in your Cheerios. Club Member

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2010
    Messages:
    3,037
    Likes Received:
    1,202
    My immediate thought was similar to yours when I read the headline - a 15 or 16 seed obviously sucks. Then I read the article, and realized that what he was really arguing is that if you're an elite team (i.e. you're not getting an 8 or 9 seed), then ultimately there isn't much, if any, difference between getting the 1, 2 or 3 seed, and that the overall strength of the region you're placed in is more important than what seed you get.
     
  6. Nor Cal Buff

    Nor Cal Buff Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2009
    Messages:
    516
    Likes Received:
    65
    You're not looking at it from the right perspective. 1 seeds on average are going to be better than than 2 seeds who are going to be better on average than 3 seeds, etc. That is not in question. What KenPom is addressing is what the impact on an individual team being mis-seeded is. That means what is the impact on a team with 1 seed talent being placed as a 2 or 3 seed and the ultimate analysis is that it doesn't make much of an impact at all.
     
  7. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2007
    Messages:
    2,468
    Likes Received:
    471
    I get what KenPom is saying and agree with everything you said. My point is that seeding may not have much effect on the top couple of seeds it does play a part farther down. CU is a prime example this year, they could be anything from an 8 to a 12. Looking historically I would rather be a 10 than a 12 ths year.
     
  8. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2009
    Messages:
    80,608
    Likes Received:
    16,232
    The thing that stands out to me is how good of a job the Committee does with the seeding. For all I complain, they do get it very close to correct. Some of the discrepancy on the 11- and 12- lines are completely due to the best mid-major rarely getting a better seed than that in years past.
     

Share This Page