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Lunardi's Latest (10:25pm) - Washington 1st Out & P12 gets 2 bids

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by Buffnik, Mar 10, 2012.

  1. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Joe Lunardi's Bracketology update

    March, 11, 2012
    MAR 11
    12:25
    AM ET

    By ESPN.com staff

    Here are Joe Lunardi's latest projections through Saturday. Check back Sunday morning for Joe's updated bracket.

    TOP SEED ORDER

    Kentucky
    Syracuse
    North Carolina
    Kansas

    Next in line (in order): Michigan State, Ohio State, Missouri, Duke

    LAST FOUR IN

    South Florida
    North Carolina State
    Seton Hall
    Mississippi State

    FIRST FOUR OUT

    Washington
    Drexel
    Iona
    Miami (Fla.)

    NEXT TWO OUT

    Ole Miss
    Arizona

    CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

    Big East (10)
    Big Ten (6)
    Big 12 (6)
    ACC (5)
    SEC (5)
    Mountain West (4)
    Atlantic 10 (3)
    West Coast (3)
    Conference USA (2)
    Missouri Valley (2)
    Pac-12 (2)

    AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

    Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
    Colorado (Pac-12)
    Creighton (Missouri Valley)
    Davidson (Southern)
    Detroit (Horizon)
    Harvard (Ivy)
    Lamar (Southland)
    Lehigh (Patriot)
    LIU Brooklyn (Northeast)
    Long Beach State (Big West)
    Louisville (Big East)
    Loyola-Md. (MAAC)
    Memphis (Conference USA)
    Mississippi Valley State (SWAC)
    Missouri (Big 12)
    Montana (Big Sky)
    Murray State (OVC)
    New Mexico (Mountain West)
    Norfolk State (MEAC)
    Ohio (MAC)
    Saint Mary's (West Coast)
    South Dakota State (Summit)
    UNC Asheville (Big South)
    Vermont (America East)
    VCU (Colonial)
    Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

    http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/52862/joe-lunardis-bracketology-update-6
     
  2. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

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    fify :woot: :gobuffs:

    EDIT: Nik beat me to it.... :lol:
     
  3. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    Completely allsome seeing that 12PAC auto bid entry.


    f the selection committee.
     
  4. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Mississippi State (and to a slightly lesser extent Seton Hall) getting in pisses me off.
     
  5. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Latest Real Time RPI: http://realtimerpi.com/bin/rtr/rtrank?type=rpi&cate=overall&gender=1

    Miss State is #74
    Seton Hall is #66

    Should they get in over #70 Washington, who won a regular season conference title?

    I really think UDub has earned the at-large play-in game.

    P.S. CU jumped up to #60 tonight.
     
  6. dio

    dio Admin Club Member Junta Member

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    Lunardi seems like a ****** braketologist
     
  7. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    And I know they don't take into account the "last X amount of games" anymore, but Mississippi State lost 5 in a row and 6 of 8 down the stretch, including to Georgia twice. They have no business getting in over Washington, IMO.

    Seton Hall went on a 6 game losing streak in January, and closed losing 3/4, including losses to Rutgers and DePaul with their lone win coming over Providence.

    Not a doubt in my mind that Washington deserves to be in over Miss St and Seton Hall. The Pac-12 hate has gone overboard this year. Going 14-4 in Pac-12 play isn't as easy as some obviously think it is.

    Washington had their chances to cement their bid and failed to do so, but there are some ****** teams far less deserving that might get bids over the Huskies.
     
    tante likes this.
  8. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    Bolded. And it's going to manifest itself with the tourney champs having a 12/13 seed and the regular season champs in the NIT. And it sucks.
     
  9. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Hope you're wrong, but afraid you're right. However, I'll take being a 12 seed any day over being a 9 seed. 11 would be ideal, but unfortunately the overboard Pac-12 hate may prevent that. And yes, a 23 win Pac-12 Champion deserves at least an 11 seed.
     
  10. dio

    dio Admin Club Member Junta Member

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    The Pac12 hate is palpable
     
  11. L Buff

    L Buff Commissar of the Albuffs Collective Left Club Member

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    I might be mistaken (although I doubt it :smile2:) ... but doesn't the RPI not allow for improvement of teams later in the season when they are only playing in conference, and penalizes them for early season losses against OOC teams that may be better or worse than when they were originally scheduled? In other words, how does a team (or conference) recover from an early season mediocre performance against OOC opponents when all they do is play other confernce opponents with the same problem?

    Does this make sense? :huh:
     
  12. DesertDawg526

    DesertDawg526 Resident Dawg Club Member

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    Under the current setup it is impossible...

    I would like to see conference play start Dec. 1st with OOC games sprinkled in throughout the year as this would be a much better representation of the conference strength. Basing it just on how teams play in November and December seems a little backward, but that's the system we have right now...

    Washington traveled east to play Duke and Marquette in December, lost the games by a combined 8 points. Those losses are now coming back to haunt them with the whole "no highly ranked RPI wins" argument... If OOC losses to top teams hurt so much then I think we'll see fewer marquee matchups, or at least not away from home. I don't know that any other conference traveled as much as the Pac did this year to schedule primetime games vs other conferences...
     
  13. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

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    The Pac:12's big problem this year is every team had some bad OOC losses and nobody really had a spectacular win. Let look at the top 6 teams:


    Washington: they lost to St Louis, Duke, Marquette, Nevada and South Dakota State. They really need to win at least 2 or 3 of those game if they wanted the have a nice resume and boost the perception of the PAC.


    California: they lost to Mizzou, San Diego State, and UNLV. They did beat Weber St, but they are all the way at 70 in RPI.


    Oregon: lost to Vandy, BYU and Virginia


    Arizona: lost to Mississippi St, San Diego State, Florida and Gonzaga. They completely whiffed on their big matchups.


    Colorado: lost to Wichita State, CSU and Wyoming and also the bad loss to Maryland


    This were the top 5 teams in the conference and while they looked like they all improved at the end of the season collectively they all had terrible starts to the season in big games.
     
  14. SuperD

    SuperD Club Member Club Member

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    Also, you have to wonder if it is a little tougher for the West Coast schools to schedule those RPI friendly OOC match ups, particularly for the Pac 12 whose schools are mostly going to be looking for home and homes. While the rise of the MWC as a b-ball conference helps, there simply aren't near as many good scheduling options compared to back East, and fewer schools are willing to come all the way across the country when they can set up a good match up that their fans can go to by driving 3 or 4 hours.
     
  15. btbuff

    btbuff It's an inside joke Club Member

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  16. OUBuff

    OUBuff American Club Member

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    Not looking for any in depth research here, but what do you think Lunardi's accuracy rate really is?
     
  17. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Said it before, but I would LOVE to draw Murray State (currently projected as a 5 seed)
     
  18. btbuff

    btbuff It's an inside joke Club Member

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  19. OUBuff

    OUBuff American Club Member

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    So HOF level stats if he played baseball, but not good enough to worry about his seeding predictions for more than a half a heartbeat.
     
  20. jcatcher

    jcatcher Club Member Club Member

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    Lunardi is very good at predicting the field, but the individual matchups are a crapshoot.

    As a Wisconsin Alum, I follow them closely, and for a 4-13 matchup, they may not be a bad draw for CU. They are nothing like a Stanford, who CU couldn't touch this year. They aren't tall - they often play a three guard lineup - and they aren't particularly athletic. Their best athlete is a clone of Andre Roberson, but an inch shorter and not as explosive. Their best player is the point guard, but he is a guy Nate can hang with, not an NBA-type guard.
     
  21. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    It's also harder to travel east than to travel west. That shows up in road records in the NFL, for example.

    I think we need to start considering an eastern trip every year, though. Maybe spend a week in Boston and play like Northeastern, UMass and Boston College over the course of a week. Get a return trip set up from them as part of the deal, even if they're not all the next year. Do a NY, or Philly or DC or NC or FL trip the next year. Wherever. But that trip would be huge for our RPI.
     
  22. Hank

    Hank Well-Known Member

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    Something is definitely screwy. I can't imagine that the Mountain West (4 NCAA bids) is that much better than the Pac (2 bids).
     
  23. CarolinaBuff

    CarolinaBuff Weekend Poster Club Member

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    Just look at what the Pac teams did out of conference. They had no OOC wins of any significance. None.
     
  24. Hank

    Hank Well-Known Member

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    Yeah. But the RPI should probably consider margin of victory and margin of loss. There should probably be a bias towards late season games, but the problem as DD mentioned, is they are all in conference.
     
  25. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    I'm not sure I fully understand the reasoning. Team A schedules 3 really tough ooc games, and loses them all. The committee looks at the strength of the schedule and ignores the losses. Team A is presented an at-large bid.

    Those losses don't mean doodlysquat in the tourney. Prolly just means Team A is gonna make an early exit. So what -- they played some tough opponents -- but did they win any of those games? No. But it still counts.

    Granted, playing a schedule ranking in the 250's doesn't mean much either, since those are usually guaranteed wins.

    I liked it better when the committee valued how a team finished. I know they used to look at how a team fared in the last 10 games (or so). If they want the dance to be competitive, it seems to me that a good barometer would be how well a team was playing at the end of the year, right before the dance. Is my logic too simple?
     

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