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MBB & WBB: Pac-12 Conference Standings

The men are currently tied with Arizona for 2nd place in conference play, if the Pac-12 Tournament were tomorrow, we would be the 4 seed. Sitting behind UW and USC (yep saw that coming...)

Beating UW this weekend is huge for post season positioning. Utah loss definitely hurts right now. We would be tied for 1st.
 
Shldr2Shldr said:
The men are currently tied with Arizona for 2nd place in conference play, if the Pac-12 Tournament were tomorrow, we would be the 4 seed. Sitting behind UW and USC (yep saw that coming...)

Beating UW this weekend is huge for post season positioning. Utah loss definitely hurts right now. We would be tied for 1st.
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Ha! A bit early for the old "If the tournament were tomorrow" talk.
 
Looks like 6-3 will be good for 1st place at the mid-point. 13-5 will likely win the conference.
 
Can we finish 4-1 in these last five games? I suppose anything from 0-5 to 5-0 is technically possible, but stealing one on the road from UCLA, USC or Utah combined with wins against the chards and scum devils is the most optimistic outcome.
 
sackman said:
Can we finish 4-1 in these last five games? I suppose anything from 0-5 to 5-0 is technically possible, but stealing one on the road from UCLA, USC or Utah combined with wins against the chards and scum devils is the most optimistic outcome.
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Best chance in a while to beat ucla and zona.
 
Assuming the season plays out as KenPom predicts, the P12 standings would be:

1.) Arizona (13-5)
2.) Oregon (12-6)
3.) USC (11-7)
4.) Utah (11-7)
5.) Washington (10-8)
6.) Colorado (10-8)
7.) Cal (10-8)
8.) UCLA (8-10)
9.) Oregon St (8-10)
10.) Stanford (7-11)
11.) Arizona St (6-10)
12.) Washington St (2-16)

First round draw against ASU, second round USC. Avoid Zona until the finals. Wouldn't be the worst draw. I'd prefer to have us beat Utah though and slide into a top 4 spot.
 
Goose said:
Assuming the season plays out as KenPom predicts, the P12 standings would be:

1.) Arizona (13-5)
2.) Oregon (12-6)
3.) USC (11-7)
4.) Utah (11-7)
5.) Washington (10-8)
6.) Colorado (10-8)
7.) Cal (10-8)
8.) UCLA (8-10)
9.) Oregon St (8-10)
10.) Stanford (7-11)
11.) Arizona St (6-10)
12.) Washington St (2-16)

First round draw against ASU, second round USC. Avoid Zona until the finals. Wouldn't be the worst draw. I'd prefer to have us beat Utah though and slide into a top 4 spot.
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So KenPom is predicting us to beat ASU and UCLA I am guessing and losing the rest? If thats the case, then Buffs just need to steal 1 of the other 3 and we should be looking pretty good for a top 4 spot.
 
Shldr2Shldr said:
So KenPom is predicting us to beat ASU and UCLA I am guessing and losing the rest? If thats the case, then Buffs just need to steal 1 of the other 3 and we should be looking pretty good for a top 4 spot.
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No, we are only predicted to be a favorite in one more game. We are roughly 67% favorites to beat ASU and have an average of around a 33% chance in the each of the other four. Add them all together and you get two wins.
 
Goose said:
Assuming the season plays out as KenPom predicts, the P12 standings would be:

1.) Arizona (13-5)
2.) Oregon (12-6)
3.) USC (11-7)
4.) Utah (11-7)
5.) Washington (10-8)
6.) Colorado (10-8)
7.) Cal (10-8)
8.) UCLA (8-10)
9.) Oregon St (8-10)
10.) Stanford (7-11)
11.) Arizona St (6-10)
12.) Washington St (2-16)

First round draw against ASU, second round USC. Avoid Zona until the finals. Wouldn't be the worst draw. I'd prefer to have us beat Utah though and slide into a top 4 spot.
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Despite all the panic after last week, here's an updated KP projection (with tiebreakers worked in).

1.) Oregon 13-5
2.) Arizona 13-5
3.) Utah 12-6
4.) Cal 11-7
5.) USC 10-8
6.) Colorado 9-9
7.) Washington 9-9
8.) UCLA 8-10
9.) Oregon St 8-10
10.) Stanford 7-11
11.) Arizona St 6-10
12.) Washington St 1-17

Nothing really changed for CU. The win over Oregon helps us with the tiebreaker against UDub. Beating Arizona would be nice too because barring a complete collapse from those two teams, it gives us wins over the conference champion which is the second tiebreaker behind head to head.
 
Goose said:
Despite all the panic after last week, here's an updated KP projection (with tiebreakers worked in).

1.) Oregon 13-5
2.) Arizona 13-5
3.) Utah 12-6
4.) Cal 11-7
5.) USC 10-8
6.) Colorado 9-9
7.) Washington 9-9
8.) UCLA 8-10
9.) Oregon St 8-10
10.) Stanford 7-11
11.) Arizona St 6-10
12.) Washington St 1-17

Nothing really changed for CU. The win over Oregon helps us with the tiebreaker against UDub. Beating Arizona would be nice too because barring a complete collapse from those two teams, it gives us wins over the conference champion which is the second tiebreaker behind head to head.
Click to expand...

Update:

1.) Oregon (13-5)
2.) Utah (12-6)
3.) Arizona (12-6)
4.) Cal (11-7)
5.) USC (10-8)
6.) Colorado (10-8)
7.) Washington (9-9)
8.) UCLA (8-10)
9.) Oregon St (8-10)
10.) Stanford (7-11)
11.) Arizona St (6-10)
12.) Washington St (1-17)

For all tie-breakers after head to head, it goes down to record vs top team in conference. For this reason, and because I personally think we have a better shot drawing Utah a third time than a rematch against Zona), I want Arizona to beat Utah this weekend. That would flip them. That means we'd draw ASU in the first round, Utah in the second if we win.
 
Well, I had a huge response written out, and naturally my browser crashed. So you're getting the cliff notes version now.

1.) Oregon (13-5)
2.) Utah (12-6)
3.) Arizona (12-6)
4.) Cal (12-6)
5.) Colorado (10-8)
6.) USC (9-9)
7.) Washington (9-9)
8.) Stanford (8-10)
9.) UCLA (8-10)
10.) Oregon St (8-10)
11.) Arizona St (5-13)
12.) Washington St (1-17)

Some SERIOUS tiebreakers going on here in 2-4. I THINK that's how it plays out, but it depends on how the conference views "0-2" vs "0-1" - is 0-2 worse than 0-1 because it has more losses or are they equal because neither has a win? I went with them being equal, but we'll see.

As for the Buffs, there are two paths to a top four seed and all involve the Buffs winning their last two games.

1.) Arizona has to lose all three games they have left (@Utah, vs Cal, vs Furd) - this isn't happening
2.) Cal has to lose at least 2 of their last three games (vs USC, @Arizona, @ASU) and CU has to get some luck in the tiebreakers. An Arizona win over Utah would help in this regard.

TL;DR - pull for Arizona over Utah, pull for Cal to lose every game and pull for the Buffs to win out.
 
OK, we also need to be aware of USC. They finish @ Cal, vs OSU, vs Oregon. If they go 2-1 and we go 1-1, they leapfrog us and we're the 6 seed.

Unless something unspeakable happens (hi Arizona State!), I think we're pretty much locked in to 4-6 seed.
 
Goose said:
OK, we also need to be aware of USC. They finish @ Cal, vs OSU, vs Oregon. If they go 2-1 and we go 1-1, they leapfrog us and we're the 6 seed.

Unless something unspeakable happens (hi Arizona State!), I think we're pretty much locked in to 4-6 seed.
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just tell me how we avoid Cal dammit! (really good work)
 
Breaking out of Haiku form briefly

Another scenario we get the 4th seed:

USC goes 2-1 at best, bringing them to 10-8 (no way they go 3-0 with their remaining schedule)
Buffs beat ASU & Utah, bringing us to 11-7
Arizona beats Utah, Utes finish tied with us at 11-7

We hold the tiebreaker for the 4th seed over Utah no matter if Oregon or Arizona wins the conference since we have beaten Oregon (Utes went 0-2) and have beaten Arizona (Utes would have lost to them).

Basically... Buffs win out and Arizona wins out and we get seed No. 4... I think.
 
HaikuBUFF said:
Breaking out of Haiku form briefly

Another scenario we get the 4th seed:

USC goes 2-1 at best, bringing them to 10-8 (no way they go 3-0 with their remaining schedule)
Buffs beat ASU & Utah, bringing us to 11-7
Arizona beats Utah, Utes finish tied with us at 11-7

We hold the tiebreaker for the 4th seed over Utah no matter if Oregon or Arizona wins the conference since we have beaten Oregon (Utes went 0-2) and have beaten Arizona (Utes would have lost to them).

Basically... Buffs win out and Arizona wins out and we get seed No. 4... I think.
Click to expand...

The math it adds up.
You obviously know things.
I wish you'd post more.
 
Goose said:
The math it adds up.
You obviously know things.
I wish you'd post more.
Click to expand...
Actually, we don't even need Arizona to win out (they could), just need them to beat Utah as long as we beat ASU and Utah.

Now back to your regular scheduled programming:

Four Buffs' hearts beating
One in time, each note entwined
Senior night at Coors
 
@Goose -- I think UA would only need to lose 2/3 with the Buffs tying them in order to grab the 4-seed and own the tiebreaker over them due to going 1-0 against them.

USC has the tiebreaker on us.

I have no idea how the tiebreakers work with Utah, Cal and Oregon since (assuming the unlikely road win in SLC) we would have split with each of them.
 
Buffnik said:
@Goose -- I think UA would only need to lose 2/3 with the Buffs tying them in order to grab the 4-seed and own the tiebreaker over them due to going 1-0 against them.
Click to expand...

You are correct. In all of my scenarios this morning I had CU going 1-1 and forgot to update for the "top 4" scenario with Zona.
 
KP update:

1.) Oregon (13-5)
2.) Utah (13-5)
3.) Cal (12-6)
4.) Arizona (12-6)
5.) Colorado (10-8)
6.) Oregon St (9-9)
7.) Washington (9-9)
8.) Stanford (9-9)
9.) USC (9-9)
10.) UCLA (7-11)
11.) Arizona St (5-13)
12.) Washington St (1-17)

For CU to get a top seed they need to beat Utah and either Arizona or Cal needs to lose out. Cal is the "better" bet, but neither one looks good.
 
Goose said:
KP update:

1.) Oregon (13-5)
2.) Utah (13-5)
3.) Cal (12-6)
4.) Arizona (12-6)
5.) Colorado (10-8)
6.) Oregon St (9-9)
7.) Washington (9-9)
8.) Stanford (9-9)
9.) USC (9-9)
10.) UCLA (7-11)
11.) Arizona St (5-13)
12.) Washington St (1-17)

For CU to get a top seed they need to beat Utah and either Arizona or Cal needs to lose out. Cal is the "better" bet, but neither one looks good.
Click to expand...

Nope. If Arizona loses to Cal to finish 11-7, the Buffs can tie them with a win over Utah. CU owns the head-to-head against UA.

Or, if Arizona loses both we get the 4-seed regardless of what happens at Utah since we both have 10 P12 wins right now.
 
Last edited:
Buffnik said:
Nope. If Arizona loses to Cal to finish 11-7, the Buffs can tie them with a win over Utah. CU owns the head-to-head against UA.

Or, if Arizona loses both we get the 4-seed regardless of what happens at Utah since we both have 10 P12 wins right now.
Click to expand...
Go Cal go!
 
Buffnik said:
Nope. If Arizona loses to Cal to finish 11-7, the Buffs can tie them with a win over Utah. CU owns the head-to-head against UA.

Or, if Arizona loses both we get the 4-seed regardless of what happens at Utah since we both have 10 P12 wins right now.
Click to expand...

MATH IS HARD DAMMIT!

Thank you sir.
 
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