#1 is tough to answer. Florida has the best computer scores and human polls, the computers might not drop a 1-loss Florida below an undefeated TCU or Cincy. But the polls might vote them out.
Cincy and TCU have a narrow margin between them in either the computers or the polls, since Cincy just won against Pitt in a really good game the human polls could swing it their way and the impact on the computers is hard to guess at this stage. Oregon State losing doesn't help Cincy. If Clemson wins the ACC it could push TCU further ahead in the computers.
#2 doesn't really matter if they make the MNC (according to the BCS criteria) officially. However you have to think that if TCU made it into, and WON, the MNC that it would boster their resume even more. The conference would still have to have another strong showing next season from it's top teams as that is the 4th year of the review period. Inviting Boise could still bolster their resume as well since they need high #'s of Top 25 teams, and a high "overall" average from the conference to stand any chance of getting an auto-bid. Selling 30,000 seats and a high TV rating probably would be the deciding factor towards the BCS awarding the MWC an auto-bid, as it isn't all about on-field performance.