1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Nate Silver Bracket Predictions

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by chipwich, Mar 17, 2014.

  1. chipwich

    chipwich Administrator Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2005
    Messages:
    20,683
    Likes Received:
    1,646
  2. cubuffs85

    cubuffs85 Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2012
    Messages:
    4,854
    Likes Received:
    40
    I get that were underdogs, but 28% seems a bit low.
     
  3. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2005
    Messages:
    10,560
    Likes Received:
    1,548
    Every metric other than RPI says Pitt is around a 5 seed and we're a double digit. Not sure why everyone thinks that number is crazy.
     
  4. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2010
    Messages:
    26,503
    Likes Received:
    761
    I like the statistics and everything, but they need to take into account the style of play. Pitt plays inside on offense which is the strength of our defense. We won't be favored but it's not that extreme.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  5. BuffClass90

    BuffClass90 Banned BANNED

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2012
    Messages:
    3,905
    Likes Received:
    96
    He was almost 100% on all the election results in 2012. That's much easier than sports, but if I'm gonna bet, I'll listen to the nerds.
     
  6. Daaah

    Daaah Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2007
    Messages:
    17,442
    Likes Received:
    1,029
  7. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2009
    Messages:
    25,787
    Likes Received:
    1,359
    I saw him on ESPN this morning. He is one awkward dude.
     
  8. cubuffs85

    cubuffs85 Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2012
    Messages:
    4,854
    Likes Received:
    40
    I'm not saying we'll win (or should be them as a slight favorite), but I thought it be closer to 60/40, 65/35. I do agree with you Pitt is underseeded and were overseeded (but not by much in our case), I think we were closer to a 9 (I'm just glad the committee respected us because I would want to be lowered too much as originally feared). I'm the one after all who said 20% was way too high for us beating UF.
     
  9. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2010
    Messages:
    26,503
    Likes Received:
    761
    Because I don't believe Pitt is that much better and it's a good matchup for both teams.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  10. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2005
    Messages:
    47,534
    Likes Received:
    1,000,005
    I'm going to keep hoping Nate Silver is going to be exposed as just an exceptionally lucky guesser until he actually makes a prediction I like...
     
  11. buffaholic

    buffaholic Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2008
    Messages:
    10,164
    Likes Received:
    1,620
    So we have Nate Silver and we have 'Tini. Who do I trust?
     
    Daaah likes this.
  12. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2010
    Messages:
    26,503
    Likes Received:
    761
    Because we all know predicting sports is real easy and there's a set statistical model for predicting. What am I doing questioning the lack of matchup data in the predictions!


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  13. BuffClass90

    BuffClass90 Banned BANNED

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2012
    Messages:
    3,905
    Likes Received:
    96
    #rhetoricalquestion
     
  14. Daaah

    Daaah Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2007
    Messages:
    17,442
    Likes Received:
    1,029
    I'm not holding out much hope. We just squeaked by USC and Cal, both of which are not nearly as good as Pitt. Of course a win is always possible, but if I had to set a line, I'd put it around 8.
     
  15. cubuffs85

    cubuffs85 Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2012
    Messages:
    4,854
    Likes Received:
    40
    Isn't it 5.5 now? So you think our chances are even worse than Vegas.

    There's no doubt we can't play like we did against USC, I was encouraged against Cal even if it was closer than it should've been.
     
  16. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2010
    Messages:
    19,524
    Likes Received:
    1,610
    I wouldn't rate Cal as a whole lot worse than Pitt, but they're two completely different teams.
     
  17. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2010
    Messages:
    26,503
    Likes Received:
    761
    The line started at 5.5 and has moved down to 4.5 last I checked. Monty is a damn good coach at Cal and they do have talent, I'm not sure what happened to them after the Dick ***** win. USC, I think a lot of that can be explained by the two ass kickings we handed to them and us being very young coming in over confident. It's also not like Pitt hasn't struggled against lesser teams, that logic works both ways.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  18. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2010
    Messages:
    19,524
    Likes Received:
    1,610
    Wouldn't it be nice if the Pitt squad showed up that needed OT to beat Virginia Tech, Miami and Notre Dame, escaped Boston College in the final seconds, and lost to FSU on their home court showed up? Doubt it, but I can hope...:nod:
     
  19. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2010
    Messages:
    26,503
    Likes Received:
    761
    But I thought we were the only team that had some issues with bad teams this season?
     
  20. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2010
    Messages:
    19,524
    Likes Received:
    1,610
    Our worst team shows up and our opponent's best team does. It's a given
     
  21. Clean Undies

    Clean Undies Flagship of the 12-Pac Club Member

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2007
    Messages:
    27,290
    Likes Received:
    5,935
    CU's neutral site performances against Okie Lite and Baylor were uninspired at the beginning of the season, as was the Wazzou game in Spokane.

    I hope the same Ski shows up who was the Charleston Classic MVP.

    The Buffs don't historically play very well east of the Mississippi. This one is definitely less friendly than the UNLV game in Albuquerque.
     
  22. cubuffs85

    cubuffs85 Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2012
    Messages:
    4,854
    Likes Received:
    40
    They haven't played east of the Mississippi since in the Charleston Classic pre-Thanksgiving 2012 (where they did good) and before that pre-Thanksgiving 2011 in the PR Classic. Tad's first year you had the losses to UGA/Harvard. Would it be better to be playing San Diego of course, I don't think what they did 2-3 years ago and definitely not before that is too relevant.
     
  23. Clean Undies

    Clean Undies Flagship of the 12-Pac Club Member

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2007
    Messages:
    27,290
    Likes Received:
    5,935
    The sample size is thin for Tadd and this set of players, and I get that.

    But this CU East of the Mississippi sentiment extends across sports. The players at CU generally have more connections and draw more supporters in the western half of the country. (The 90 NC game in FB is an exception)
     
  24. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2010
    Messages:
    19,524
    Likes Received:
    1,610
    It was completely dead in Austin last year, too. Hopefully we don't have another debacle like that. Pitt's support is weak when it comes to travel. Going to be a quiet, neutral arena.
     
  25. cubuffs85

    cubuffs85 Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2012
    Messages:
    4,854
    Likes Received:
    40
    Florida is playing in the game after us, if their fans show up towards the end of the game and it's close, maybe they'll be rooting for us since were the "easier" matchup.
     
  26. Scotch

    Scotch Registered User Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2005
    Messages:
    9,805
    Likes Received:
    430
    Awesome!!! Everybody knows the best upsets every year are a 12 over a 5! :thumbsup:
     
    Goose likes this.
  27. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2007
    Messages:
    2,468
    Likes Received:
    471
    This isn't right on either account - Pitt doesn't play inside and CU's inside D isn't nearly as good as it's been the past few years.
     
  28. Darian3Hagan

    Darian3Hagan '89 Player of the Year Club Member

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2007
    Messages:
    11,931
    Likes Received:
    1,380
    Why do you hate the Buffs?

    /tini
     
  29. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2008
    Messages:
    56,907
    Likes Received:
    4,922
    Have we forgotten about Dre?
     
  30. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2010
    Messages:
    26,503
    Likes Received:
    761
    26.8% of their points come from beyond the arc and they get to the line fairly often but not a ton. If their points aren't coming from 3 or the line then where are they coming from? Patterson is the only player on the team to have taken more than 65 three point shots all season but three players have 240+ shots from inside the arc. 10.4% of their shots get blocked to, that's not common if you're shooting from outside.

    So you disagree that Scott and Gordon down low isn't the strength of our defense? I'm not saying it's as good as our past D (Dre) but as far as this team goes, it's the strength of our D.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     

Share This Page