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Nelson Spruce's Year Compared to Other Top College WR

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by Darth Snow, Dec 5, 2014.

  1. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Football Outsiders took a look, and Spruce came in at #28 (out of the top 100).

    Above ranking is a conglomeration of answers to the following questions:

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2014/vn-2014-college-receiver-crop

    Link to the file for all WR's in the country: https://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/2523014/RYPR_after_14_weeks.0.xlsx

    A quick glance at why Nelson was so low relative to his ultimate production (as far as I can tell):

    Low low LOW Yards Per Target/Completion (aside: maybe Sefo's low Yards/attempt this year isn't so much missing Richardson as it is featuring Spruce?)

    Despite the total #s, Spruce suffered from the fact that our passing game wasn't nearly as efficient as most of the offenses that featured top WR's. (S&P of 105, just a little bit better than average).

    Other WR #s:

    • Fields: #250, 9.7 Yards Per Completion, only 6.1 per target.
    • McCullough: #284, 14 YPC - 8.7/target
    • D.D. Goodson: #317, 10 YPC - 6.5/target
    • Bobo: #490, 9.4 YPC - 6.0/target


    My conclusions: Spruce is really good, Fields is also good. McCullough was effective. Bobo was very disappointing. We lose very little in DD.

    Offense needs to find a way to go deeper/be more efficient in the passing game. Such low Yards per Target gave us little room for error.
     
  2. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Good stuff, but...

    [​IMG]

    Spruce became a possession receiver as the season progressed. Teams adjusted to put a safety over the top while pressing with the CB. Spruce's stats were artificially reduced on YPC because the Buffs weren't able to make defenses pay for doing this by exploiting the deep third with other receivers. It did help the run game, though, since that safety back instead of in the box really opened things up.
     
  3. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Spruce IS a possession WR. He's just a very very good one. Putting a guy over the top of Prich limited the damage, it didn't stop it. And yes, we don't really have a deep threat.

    Fields is fast, but has the lowest YPT. He showed difficulty adjusting to the deep ball. Outside of Arizona, we stopped throwing to him deep. Bobo was a disappointment. Hell, our best "deep" threat was McCullough, and he wasn't even a deep threat. He just did a good job exploiting space in the middle, making guys miss, and getting decent yards.

    This is a problem that I don't see going away with current personnel - unless one our Redshirts is hiding something. I don't see any of our current commits fixing it either.

    In short: Our talent is mediocre and holding this offense back.
     
  4. absinthe

    absinthe Ambitious but rubbish. Club Member Junta Member

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    You shut your whore mouth Snow were are good and deep at this position.
     
  5. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Shut it Tini! Actually, I'm now more impressed with Sefo & Lindgren despite how depressed the above analysis makes me. Sefo wasn't exactly working with a bunch of stars at WR.

    More refined conclusions: With all due respect to Fields, we only have one good WR and a bunch of dudes... Out of all guys with 10 targets or more IN THE COUNTRY, only Spruce was good. Fields was average - which is fine for a freshman, but I don't think his game will significantly change since catching the ball deep is an instinctive thing. The rest of the guys were below average or worse (Bobo, DD).
     
  6. Burrito Palazzo

    Burrito Palazzo huff my smug Club Member

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    Wr screen killed Shay.
     
  7. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    Big impact on our ability to throw deep was the inconsistent ability of the line to give Sefo the time needed for deeper passes to develop. The consistent early pressure on the passer forced us to go to quicker throws. Unfortunately as this happened defenses pulled up and made these less effective, this is also where some of the ugly pics that Sefo threw came from with defenders keying on these passes and jumping the routes and Sefo not reading the jump and throwing the ball before the pressure got to him (or as the pressure was getting to him.)

    Had we been able to run some longer developing things Spruce could have faked the shorter routes and burst into patterns that would have carried him for longer gains. He isn't going to be a PRich and just flat out run by most guys but given time he can work guys into postion that allows him to get open deeper.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2014
  8. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    We need a whole lot better than what McCulloch gave us.
     
  9. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Yes. Not only is he leaving, but he gave us average, at best. Hell, he only had one 100 game in his whole career (his last one). This offense needs more legit threats.
     
  10. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    Duff, you know I have always been a McCulloch defender and I appreciate the efforts he gave us but you are right.

    McC was put into a position that would normally be occupied by a TE but he didn't give us what a quality TE gives. He didn't provide a threat as a guy who could block a LB or safety much less a DE on running plays and he didn't give us that consistent outlet in the middle of the defense where a QB can go for consistent yardage and force the D to be honest.

    If our offense is going to be markedly better next season we have to find somebody who can fill this role but unless somebody we haven't seen play steps up we may be in trouble again.
     
  11. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    McCulloch flashed enough to give us all a great look into the potential for a big inside receiver in the Lindgren offense.
     
  12. Bufffan68

    Bufffan68 Club Member Club Member

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    I wouldn't say we're mediocre, but not stellar. Shay and Nelson would start or get a lot of playing time at most PAC12 schools, if not all. After that, it drops off pretty dramatically. Lee showed some spark and Bobo had a few decent games, but both were disappointing.
     
  13. BlackNGold

    BlackNGold Club Member Club Member

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    Guys like Spruce are best when they have a guy like Richardson on the team. Last year we average about 12.7 yards per catch. This year we average 9.8 - A pretty significant drop. A lot of that could be contributed to PRich being gone and stretching the defense a little. If Fields can progress, Spruce should have a better year in 2015.
     
  14. goalline

    goalline Club Member Club Member

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    This - used way too often and usually produced about 3 yards.
     
  15. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    The lack of threat in the middle of the field hurts us just as much as the lack of a deep threat IMO.
     
  16. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Probably more, imho. LBs were able to jump their reads.
     
  17. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    Spruce would have benefited many times from a big presence inside. But as you say, it got pretty cluttered inside on third downs.
     

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