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Never too early for a prediction....prediction

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by CitizenKane, Sep 20, 2016.

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How many games will CU win this year?

  1. Less than 20....and no post season invite.

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. Between 20-24 thanks to some NIT wins

    3 vote(s)
    3.3%
  3. Between 20-24 early out in the Tourney again

    22 vote(s)
    23.9%
  4. 25-28 Finally a win or two in the Tourney

    58 vote(s)
    63.0%
  5. 29-30 Big break through year and ok Tourney run

    6 vote(s)
    6.5%
  6. 30 Plus. Great regular season and solid Tourney.

    3 vote(s)
    3.3%
  1. CitizenKane

    CitizenKane Club Member Club Member

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    I came to the sudden realization that there are only 51 days left until the men's basketball team plays its first game. I know everyone is still excited about football but I can't contain my excitement for this CU hoops team. Sure, CU lost its version of the big fundamental, but this team has talent and depth at every position.

    Point Guard - Probably CU's weakest position as a starting unit but look for big improvements from both Dom and Akyazili. Dom's always had the talent, but confidence and size both eluded him. The confidence grew last year and another year in the weight room will do him wonders. Akyazili's shot was a major liability last year, but his energy and pace were infectious. Don't be surprised if he shoots over 40% from 3 this year and you get the same energy with less turnovers. Derrick White will also get hiss minutes here and all three of these players will be pushed by versatile freshman Peters and Brown.

    Small Wing (Shooting guard/small forward) - The wing positions are areas of great strength for CU. Playing time will be hard to come by and will likely depend on who is hot and on the defensive match ups. Derrick White, George King, Josh Fortune, Bryce Peters and Deleon Brown will all get minutes at the smaller wing position and all are capable of putting up big numbers. This group can and will compete with anyone in the country and can wear down NBA caliber players with a consistent rotation.

    Big wing (Small forward/power forward) - Like the small wing, the larger wing position can and will compete with anyone in the country. Sure better players exist, but CU's depth and ability to find the hot hand make them lethal. Xavier Johnson is back and reports are his explosiveness has returned. George King will rotate in here and everyone saw what he has become last year. Josh Fortune will also play a lot of minutes and may be the one player who makes the biggest gains this year. Oh and if CU wants to go big they can put Tory Miller or Wesley Gordon here as well, but expect the normal rotation to be XJ, King and Fortune. Finally, Freshman Lucas Siewert will squeeze in some reps. Don't expect huge numbers from the freshman, but do look for a nice shooting stroke and someone who will play all out on D.

    Post (Power Forward/Center) - Tory Miller took a chunk out of his deficiencies and opponents last year (Literally and figuratively) and yet he has only started to tap his potential. Tory cleaned up his foul issues, improved his scoring and still is a monster of a man. That being said, he won't be the starter yet, as that belongs to Wesley Gordon. Gordon often took a back seat to the big fundamental, whether in the press, or during the game. However, Gordon is ready for prime time. No he won't put up 15 points a game, but then CU doesn't need him to. He will be a rebounding machine, a defensive stopper and a legit threat to score in the post.

    Expect CU to come at teams in waves. That platooning that Tad Boyle has loved to use in the past, finally has the team to make it extremely successful. This team has the talent and the depth to set the all time CU record for wins, to finish at or near the top in the conference, to win the conference tournament and to finally make a deep push in the NCAA tournament.

    So now for some predictions.
    1. CU will set the record for most points scored in a game this year.
    2. CU will set the record for lowest opponent field goal percentage allowed in a game this year.
    3. CU will finish the regular season somewhere between 25-7 (13-5) and 28-4 (14-4).
    4. CU will be in the PAC12 championship game.
    5. CU will make it at least to the sweet 16.
    6. CU will finish the year with at least 30 total wins (Including tournament games).

    Kool-aid for everyone!
     
    scoob, BuffNative, Goose and 5 others like this.
  2. StormTrooper

    StormTrooper Millennial Liason Club Member

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    Well that's bullish. I think 25 wins/finishing in the top 25 is a great goal for this year.
     
  3. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Over 20
    Dancing
    In Top 25 most weeks
    Tourney is a crap shoot, but there is enough firepower to get out of the first weekend with a 6-seed or better
     
  4. Buffs Basketball Fan

    Buffs Basketball Fan Active Member

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    Whats the likelihood of running the home portion of the schedule? Last year just lost the buzzer beater to Utah.
     
  5. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

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    I will be interested in seeing how the team responds to not having Scott any more. Was he a crutch that they put too much dependence on or was he the only thing that kept them from losing 15 games?
     
  6. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Ask me after the Xavier game.
     
  7. Buffs Basketball Fan

    Buffs Basketball Fan Active Member

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    This could become a very popular thread. 50 days of running commentary
     
  8. CitizenKane

    CitizenKane Club Member Club Member

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    The Xavier game is going to be F-U-N fun! Two teams that are very athletic and will want to push the pace. I can't wait!
     
  9. CitizenKane

    CitizenKane Club Member Club Member

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    T-minus 50 and counting!!
     
  10. Buffs Basketball Fan

    Buffs Basketball Fan Active Member

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    Depth+FastPace + Altitude+C-Unit = Home court advantage
     
    CitizenKane likes this.
  11. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

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    I'm am pretty optimistic for the season, but our out of conference schedule is tougher than last year. We could easily have 3 or 4 losses before we start conference play (Notre Dame, Texas/Northwestern, Xavier and @BYU). Those are all going to be tough games that we have a chance to win, but Josh Scott was such a consistent player for us, it will definitely hurt. Then we get to the conference schedule and automatically we lose the home series with ASU/AU, which has always been a tough road trip for us. We start out conference play a lot on the road, so we might have a big hole to dig out from. If we look at the rest of the pac12 this is how we ended the year.

    Oregon: key losses (Boucher, Cook)
    Utah: Key losses (Poeltl, Loveridge, Taylor).
    Arizona: key losses (Anderson, York, Tarczewski).
    California: key losses (Wallace, Brown, Mathwes).
    Colorado: key losses (Scott).
    USC: key losses (Jovanic, jacops, reinhardt).
    Oregon State: key losses (Payton!!!).
    Washington: key losses (Andrews, Murray, Chriss).
    Stanford: Key losses (Allen).
    UCLA: key losses (Parker).
    Arizona State: key losses (everyone).
    Washington State: key losses(Johnson, Suggs, Izundu).

    Improved: Stanford, UCLA
    Same:Arizona, California, Colorado, Oregon, USC
    Worse: Utah, Washington, Oregon State, Washington State, Arizona State


    Predicted Finish
    Arizona
    California
    Oregon
    UCLA
    Colorado
    USC
    Utah
    Stanford
    Washington
    Oregon State
    Arizona State
    Washington State

    Colorado is such an enigmena every year and so hard to predict. This is definitely a talented roster, but what are we going to do without Scott down low on defense grabbing every board and playing lock down defense without fouling. Sure we can throw Wes and Miller down there, but can they play defense without putting a guy on the line? I think our wings and perimeter defense are going to be fine, so this might be a good year to not have to face big men like Poeltl and Tarczewski). I see our starting 5 as Dom, White, King, XJ and Wes. That is a really strong starting 5. Not many teams can have a 10.3/4 guy come off the bench with the experience that Fortune has.
     
  12. 99'Buff

    99'Buff Active Member

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    Boucher was granted an extra year of eligibility and should be back with the Ducks this year.

    I agree that it's hard to predict what CU will do this season, but it looks very promising on paper. The pieces are all there for a special year, and I hope that the 4 5th year seniors take the leadership reigns right away. Is there another team in Division I that has 4 5th year seniors?
     
  13. Buffs Basketball Fan

    Buffs Basketball Fan Active Member

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    The 3 dominant low post threats all left the conference. Will have a different look with lots of teams going to an open wing lineups.
    Wes will one of the top rebounders in the league.
     
  14. CitizenKane

    CitizenKane Club Member Club Member

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    Great post and nice list of key losses for each team. I think there are good arguments for having Arizona, Oregon and California up near the top, though I really believe Colorado will be right there with them this year. The two teams you surprised me with were UCLA and Utah so high. Sure UCLA has a lot of talent, but that team, perhaps more than any other, showed a complete unwillingness to play together, which is why they were 6-12 in conference last year. Something just isn't right with that team chemistry. Utah is going to struggle this year, no way around it. Losing their top two scorers and top two defenders will be too much for them to overcome. I fully expect them to finish down with Washington State, Arizona State and Oregon State at the bottom of the conference.

    If I picked an order of finish it would the list below, but within each group any of the four could really finish in any order.
    Oregon - Mix athletes, with more athletes, an annoying coach and more athletes and crap, I hate that this works.
    Colorado - Traditionally has struggled against teams with athletic wings...that tradition stops this year.
    Arizona - Always so many talented guys, but several must step up this year.
    California - They've been recruiting like crazy but always flub it up in conference play, that could change this year.

    USC - This team will be very good, almost swapped them with Cali in the top four.
    Washington - Solid team, solid coach, not as many dudes as others in the conference.
    UCLA - Schyzo team...could be great one day and just horrible the next.
    Stanford - See my comments for Washington but add in at least two massively critical coaching errors a season that costs them games.

    Utah - A two man team this year and neither is good enough to carry them.
    Oregon State - Wait these guys still play basektball?? Just don't have the talent to compete night in and night out.
    Washington State - If you lose a game to WSU then something is wrong...horribly terribly wrong.
    Arizona State - Talk about a team starting from scratch. Bet a certain former Duke Blue Devil wishes he had an easy-bake basketball oven.
     
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  15. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

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    @CitizenKane

    Thanks for the response. As for UCLA. I have to rate them high because they have so much damn talent. I just don't know when they will put it together. And Utah is very well coached. They are going to win enough at home that they won't be at the bottom of the Pac12 standings. I think the Colorado/Utah road trip is tough for most teams and they will definitely benefit from teams playing at Colorado. There was a 2 win difference between us and Stanford. We finished 5th, they finished 9th. I just think their home court and coaching is enough to get them top 7. But that whole second tier is always a mess.
     
  16. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    @CitizenKane - curious why you have Cal so high. I love Rabb, but they lost a lot and Cuonzo hasn't proven (to me) that he can coach. I'm not sure Rabb is enough to keep them in that top 4.
     
  17. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

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    I have Cal high because Rabb and Bird might be the best 1-2 punch in the PAC-12. I know they lost a lot of experience in the backcourt, but those two can easily put up 35/15 every night.
     
  18. BuffNative

    BuffNative Club Member Club Member

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    Lot of great commentary in this thread. One thing I haven't seen mentioned is some of the incoming Freshman for other PAC-12 teams and there are two I'm especially excited to see. I know Freshman can be unpredictable, but past teams have proven that you can win with Freshman carrying your team (Duke '15, Kentucky '12).

    Some posters above mentioned chemistry issues at UCLA. Lonzo Ball was the best player on the best team in the country. If you want to read some more, check out this article from The Ringer. If Lonzo Ball is anywhere near as good as advertised he could erase that chemistry issue. Bryce Alford is not a true point guard. With Lonzo Ball running the point Alford can thrive as a trigger happy two. Before I move on, I would like to note that CU Freshman Bryce Peters was one of the few players that could hang with the Ball brothers in SoCal. Peters is legit. The bad news is the two younger Ball brothers, and the third one may be the best of three, are already committed to UCLA.

    The other Freshman that could turn heads is Washington's Markelle Fultz. He won the MVP at the 2016 FIBA Americas U18 and some scouts already project him as the #1 overall NBA pick in 2017. A lot of people in this thread are writing off Washington but any time you add a player that talented anything can happen. Romar will continue his streak of having one-and-done players, but can he break his streak of missed NCAA tournaments? I wouldn't bet against Fultz. The bad news, even if Fultz is one-and-done Washington picks up the number two player in the country in 2017, Michael Porter Jr.



    I love being in the PAC-12 for basketball because this conference is loaded. CU is primed to compete and Tad just had a pretty good recruiting class himself. Should be a really fun year.
     
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2016
  19. CitizenKane

    CitizenKane Club Member Club Member

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    I have them high just based off of their recruiting the past couple of years. They have more talent the people realize. It may not come together (Which is why I nearly put USC above them), but until they show a lack of team chemistry like UCLA I have left them high. UCLA and CAL are the two I feel least confident about.
     
  20. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    I just wonder who's going to run teh show. @tante makes a great point about their 1-2 combo, but Matthews is gone, and so is Wallace. Can Senger run the show?

    I did forget that they landed Marcus Lee though. So I'm probably more down on them than I should be, but I put them behind us, Zona and Oregon - and possibly UCLA.
     
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  21. CitizenKane

    CitizenKane Club Member Club Member

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    Another great post in this thread. I have to admit I am not quite as high on Fultz as others are, but then I have only watched some of his film and certainly haven't paid attention to early NBA scouting reports. If those scouts are right then things can change for Washington quickly. As for UCLA and Lonzo Ball....he will definitely help that team, but I don't know that he comes in and fixes team chemistry for them. They will just have one more guy that might go off, and who may end up sulking. From what I have seen from him, his offense is amazing but like many freshman his defense is suspect. I still think CU will be able to guard and play with them better than they were able to last year.
     
  22. tempikmu0102

    tempikmu0102 New Member

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    Yeah i'm agree
     
  23. JPinCO

    JPinCO VP of Quantified Self Club Member

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    I'm agree too! Much happy long time!
     
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  24. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Too beaucoup! Too beaucoup!
     
  25. DBT

    DBT Club Member Club Member

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    Me agree well as!!
     
  26. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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  27. onealcd

    onealcd Club Member Club Member

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  28. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    Believe so. They have some nice pieces, but without Duvivier, I worry about someone to keep it running smoothly on the court.
     
  29. onealcd

    onealcd Club Member Club Member

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    I just thought I saw a report that he was "supposed to be cleared by fall camp" but it's always hard for bball guys to come back full strength from foot injuries.
     
  30. Buffsbball

    Buffsbball New Member

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    @Goose Cal also got a grad transfer from Columbia this year Grant Mullins who put up 13 points 3 rebounds a 3 assists a year to start a point. Their starting 5 will be good Mullins, bird, Rabb, Lee, and whoever else. It is all about depth with them. They also got a highly rated point guard charlie moore from chicago who will be a freshman this year. They will win games but will they have the depth to be consistent. I like Colorado a lot this year though.
     
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