Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by Goose, Feb 5, 2013.
@ Oregon State
vs Arizona State
I just don't know what to think with this team. I voted for 2-2 but to be honest I wouldn't be surprised with any of the results above.
I voted 1-3.
I'm going 3-1 because I'm a fool, but I agree with you that there is no result that would surprise me here.
Nothing will surprise me either, I went 2-2 but I could see those 2 wins being Oregon and Arizona and somehow losing to OSU and ASU.
2-2 - so they won't decide the season. :lol:
1-3 or 0-4...interesting. 0-4....zero chance. 38-5, .884 at home under Boyle, never had more than a one game losing streak at home as well and I'm not sold on ASU (won't get away with that much "physical" play under the basket on the road) or UA being able to beat us at The Keg. I'm curious to see who the 1-3 people think we beat and who we lose to.
I'm not making any guesses on who they beat and who they lose to. The Buffs have struggled mightily on the road this season (and they did just lose at Utah). Oregon is one of the top teams in the conference. Arizona is tied with Oregon for the top spot. Arizona State is a good team, as well.
It would not surprise me to see the Buffs lose to both Oregon and Oregon State, beat Arizona, and then lose to Arizona State.
You know what? We're a damn good team at home. RealTimeRPI has us beating OSU (.526), UA (.514), and ASU (.666) and losing to UO (.323). I think you're overvaluing Robinson's coaching ability (probably worst in the Pac 12 and they are the worst team in the conference) and CU at home. I'm going with what the math says here, 3-1.
Best case: 3-1 (Oregon, Arizona, Arizona State)
Worst case: 1-3 (Arizona State)
Probable case: 2-2 (Arizona and Arizona State)
No way we lose to ASU if they call fouls on their 7'2 center. I kinda hope we attack him right away and get him in foul trouble. They are not that good of team. There schedule gets much harder from here on out. Dinwiddie contained Jahii Carson in Tempe (held him to 5 points), and he makes them dangerous. Stop Carson and stop ASU.
at Oregon - 50% chance to win, they don't have Artis and their backup Lloyd is hurting, so they will probably turn the ball over 18+ times with other guys trying to play the point, which means more possessions and opportunities to score for us. We struggle when teams slow it down and limit possessions (Utah), but Oregon wants to play fast, so that helps our team immensely.
at Oregon State - 30%, they have Moreland back, and they can score points. Doubtful we win this game unless we shoot lights out from 3 like the Zona game. ALso, our team doesn't handle zone defenses well. I see a final score in the realm of 74-57 Oregon State.
Zona at home - 60% - we matchup well with them, and I think we can beat them at home with revenge on everyone's minds and the great crowd. They have more talent, but I can see us prevailing if we play like the Stanford game.
ASU at home - 75% - we are a better team than them, and this game will show it.
I really don't see how in the hell you came to the conclusion that winning at UO will be harder than winning at OSU
For the record, I'm the guy who voted 4-0.
**** all you doubters.
2-2 would be the sensible pick right now, and with this team, it's entirely possible we would beat Oregon and Arizona and lose to Oregon State and Arizona State.
I think 3-1 is very possible, but if I pick it, it won't happen, so I had to pick 2-2 and hope for the best.
for the record, you are a useless sunshine pumper! My hate makes the Buffs strong! The more I hate, the stronger they become. (See: Nate Tomlinson).
3-1 take it to the bank.
I think we have better shot against Oregon than OSU because they play similar to our up tempo style, and right now, they don't have a PG, so they have been turning the ball over 20+ times the last three games. Their ranking is deceiving because they beat UNLV, Arizona and UCLA at their peak rankings. I don't think we will win this game, but I believe we have a better shot at winning this game than Oregon State.
Why? Oregon State isn't nearly as bad as their record indicates. They have been in every game minus their game against Oregon at home. They even played Kansas closer than we did in Kansas City.
They have talent, experience and depth. Coaching is holding them back. The Buffs are still terrible on the road, especially offensively, and Oregon State plays a zone defense, which we still don't really know how to breakdown. Combining our inability to score on the road for long periods of time with Booker's terrible road performances, I don't see us winning unless we shoot lights out from 3pt range.
I would be ecstatic if we could win one road game this week. That's all I want.
Fair enough and I like the response (better than I would have done :lol. Couple points though...
(1). We played them in Lawrence where as OSU played them on a "neutral" court. Would we have given them a better game in KC and would OSU have gotten blown out like we did in Lawrence? We'll never know but what we do know is that Tad is a excellent neutral court coach (2010 Big XII tourny, 2011 Pac 12 and ABQ tourny's, and 2012 Charleston Classic). Who knows though, just something to think about.
(2). Correct me if I'm wrong, didn't Cal play a fair amount of zone against us? Other than the turnovers, we seemed to do well against it and scored pretty well against it. I do remember us struggling against the zone against Utah until we went on that long run.
Basically I see WSU (nearly beat #10 Gonzaga at home)>OSU>Utah. I think we'll win this one based on the math but it is not a gimmie by any means.
Haha, no worries, I'd rather debate and discuss the Buffs winning every game!
1) That's true. Boyle is great at home and on neutral courts these last two years. Oregon State would have probably gotten killed in Lawrence as well. If Boyle can just figure out how to win 50% of the road games, we would take the next step and compete for conference championships. There isn't a magic formula though. I expect next year that we take the next step. I hope he can fix the offense because our defense is mostly fine on the road.
2) I think you are right about that, but our team literally changes when playing in a road environment compared to home/neutral. We seem to do everything wrong: turnovers, bad shots, foul trouble, mental lapses, etc. Our offense can't seem to break 55 points on average. I know most teams struggle on the road, but it's amazing that we are so terrible on offense on the road vs. home. I think Boyle regrets reshirting Jenkins and Gordon, both guys would have been at least the no.6 and 7 guy off the bench. We can't win road games without the bench contributing something.
Oregon State is probably the "easiest" on paper team remaining and they won't have a hostile crowd at all, so I hope we can beat them, but with the Buffs on the road this year, I can't predict any road victory, but they need JUST one road victory this week to stay in the hunt for a top 5 finish.
But I'm an incurable optimist. :huh:
Seriously ... I'm hoping the Utah debacle lights a fire under their ass to not let themselves get into a double digit hole in the first half at UO ... and to come out smoking at the beginning of the second. After that, anything can happen.
The three other games are all should-wins.
Let's be very clear about Oregon State. Yes, they are more talented than their record should be, but never underestimate just how bad of a coach Robinson is. They are last in the Pac and have lost to Towson at home. We're a weird team, and it would be completely like us to do something like beat Oregon and then go lose at Oregon State, but the Beavs *should* be a win for us (Yes, Utah *should* have been too). All it will take is a Washington State-like effort, which means it doesn't exactly require excellent basketball.
3-1. I think the Utah game is a wake up call and we will carry over our run that we had at the end of the game to the Oregon game. I see a close loss to Oregon, but I don't think a win is out of the question. This kind of reminds me of when we got blown out by Oregon State last year. We were all down and turned around to play good basketball (mostly because Carlon got out of his slump). Hopefully Ski can turn it on and 3-1 over this four game stretch will put us back into the hunt.
I did to, but only because anything less than that and I start to envision the NIT(started to happen anyway when we were down by 20 to Utah), and it's too damn depressing to think about. :huh:
One win down! HUGE win for Buffs. So pumped
I went 3-1 because I chose after we won tonight. I think we drop one of the last three. If I had to choose, I'd hope for the OSU game, because I want revenge on ASU and UofA and we get to see them in person. 4-0 would put us in a good place.
Point being, just because we gritted out a 48-47 win tonight doesn't mean anything has necessarily changed. That remains to be seen. Back to back road wins? Then we can start talking
Oregon State sucks, I am hoping we have learned our lesson from that awful Utah loss and win that one too. Then coming back home for a revenge game and then ASU the CEC will be offically ROCKING!!! This is setting up very nicely for our Buffs.
I think the transition game will be the key against the beavs. Good defense leading to steals, and rebounding with quick outlet passes -- there is no zone in a fast break situation.
I hope we did too. However, just saying it would be textbook for this young team to lose some focus and not treat Oregon State like the 'must win' that it is. In terms of talent, Oregon State is far more talented than Utah, it's not even close. Oregon State just also happens to have the worst coach in the Pac.
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