First a couple points about RPI and how that factors in. Since the 1999-2000 seasons, here's how good of a guide RPI is (Syracuse SB Nation Site): A Top-50 RPI Doesn't Guarantee an NCAA Tournament Bid, But It's Close Since the 1999-2000 season, just 70 teams with a top-50 RPI come Selection Sunday have missed the NCAA Tournament. That's just nine percent of all teams in that stretch with a top-50 RPI, or an average of 4.4 teams per season missing. All top-50 profiles were also not created equal. Those top-50 teams that have been left out were largely (67 percent) rated 41-50. Some of the more notable exceptions to that theory, however: 2006 Missouri State (21), 2015 Colorado State (29), 2007 Air Force (30) and 2006 Hofstra (30). Those four teams have something in common, however... all in non-power leagues. Just 36 percent of the top-50 RPI teams left out of the NCAAs were in a power conference (meaning 64 percent were in non-power leagues). Strength of schedule (SOS) is always seen as the add-on to RPI in a team's resume. And with good reason. While a top-50 RPI gets you into the Dance at a pretty high rate, 41-percent of those top-50 RPI teams left out also had a top-50 SOS. In short, Top 50 RPI pretty much means the team is in, especially if the team is from a Power 6 conference and had a Top 50 SOS. The bracketologist I'm going to focus on is 1-3-1 Sports. It's been the 2nd best overall with little variance over the past 4 years according to Bracket Matrix. 1-3-1 most recent posting of its projections was on 2/19. Here's how they had it (1-3-1 Blog): The 1 Seeds: Villanova, Kansas, Virginia, Xavier The 2 Seeds: Oklahoma, North Carolina, Miami (FL), Michigan State The 3 Seeds: Iowa, Maryland, Oregon, Duke The 4 Seeds: Kentucky, West Virginia, Dayton, Arizona The 5 Seeds: Purdue, Iowa State, Utah, Notre Dame The 6 Seeds: USC, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor The 7 Seeds: Indiana, California, St. Joseph’s, Connecticut The 8 Seeds: Colorado, Providence, Florida, Syracuse The 9 Seeds: South Carolina, Pittsburgh, Wichita State, Texas Tech The 10 Seeds: Seton Hall, Wisconsin, Michigan, VCU The 11 Seeds: Monmouth, Cincinnati, Gonzaga, Oregon State, Alabama The 12 Seeds: Butler, St. Mary’s, San Diego State, Valparaiso, Arkansas-Little Rock The 13 Seeds: Chattanooga, Akron, IPFW, Stony Brook The 14 Seeds: Yale, Hawaii, NC-Wilmington, UAB The 15 Seeds: Belmont, Stephen F. Austin, New Mexico State, Montana The 16 Seeds: NC-Asheville, North Florida, Bucknell, Hampton, Wagner, Texas Southern —————————————————————- BUBBLE ACTION Last Four In: Oregon State, Alabama, Butler, St. Mary’s First Four Out: George Washington, Florida State, Temple, LSU Next Four Out: Tulsa, Washington, Vanderbilt, Ohio State —————————————————————- CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN ACC (7), Pac-12 (7), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (7), Big East (5), SEC (5), Atlantic 10 (3), American (2), West Coast (2) ACC – Virginia, North Carolina, Miami (FL), Duke, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Pittsburgh America East – Stony Brook American – Connecticut, Cincinnati Atlantic 10 – Dayton, St. Joseph’s, VCU Atlantic Sun – North Florida Big 12 – Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Texas, Baylor, Texas Tech Big East – Villanova, Xavier, Providence, Seton Hall, Butler Big Sky – Montana Big South – NC-Asheville Big Ten – Michigan State, Iowa, Maryland, Purdue, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan Big West – Hawaii Colonial – NC-Wilmington Conference USA – UAB Horizon – Valparaiso Ivy – Yale MAAC – Monmouth MAC – Akron MEAC – Hampton Missouri Valley – Wichita State Mountain West – San Diego State Northeast – Wagner Ohio Valley – Belmont Pac-12 – Oregon, Arizona, Utah, USC, California, Colorado, Oregon State Patriot – Bucknell SEC – Kentucky, Texas A&M, Florida, South Carolina, Alabama Southern – Chattanooga Southland – Stephen F. Austin Summit – IPFW Sun Belt – Arkansas-Little Rock SWAC – Texas Southern WAC – New Mexico State WCC – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s You'll notice that's 32 automatic Dance Cards, so we're looking for the 36 at-large teams for this thread. Got to watch some of those 1-bid leagues that have a frontrunner with a great RPI. Conference tourneys always result in a couple bid stealers where that regular season champ was so strong in its RPI that it got an at-large despite losing its tourney. Look out for Chattanooga (RPI 37, Southern Conf), Akron (RPI 42, MAC), Arkansas-Little Rock (RPI 43, Sun Belt), Monmouth (RPI 46, MAAC), South Dakota State (RPI 47, Summit), San Diego State (RPI 50, MWC), Wichita State (RPI 51, MVC) and Stony Brook (RPI 52, America East). If you're cheering for a bubble team to get in, any of those teams in its conference tourney could really tighten that bubble by turning a 1-bid league into a 2-bid league. Also could happen if a team was an upset winner of the WCC tourney and both Gonzaga & St. Mary's still got at-large bids. But as we saw with CSU last year, if the conference isn't rated highly we'll sometimes see the committee penalize a worthy conference at-large by having its tourney winner steal the bid of the the lowest rated conference at-large that would have otherwise made it in rather than the committee rewarding the conference with more than its share of bids based on conference strength. Further posts in this thread will be game results of bubble teams and updates to the 1-3-1 predictions (or predictions of other bracketologists).