RPI is largely noise this early. (Arguments can be made that RPI is just a lot of noise at all times.)
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Official Buffs Dance Resume Thread
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
RPI is largely noise this early. (Arguments can be made that RPI is just a lot of noise at all times.)
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
UCLA edges out a win over UNLV in Maui. Bruins aren't so good this year, but UNLV is starting to recover and will be in the top 3-5 of the MWC. We'll take it.
Cal killed Sam Houston. 4 games, 4 cupcakes. Unfortunately, given how San Diego State has looked thus far, I'm not even sure that will tell us too much about whether Cal deserves to be top 15. It may take games against West Virginia and then Virginia in December to paint that picture.
Cal killed Sam Houston. 4 games, 4 cupcakes. Unfortunately, given how San Diego State has looked thus far, I'm not even sure that will tell us too much about whether Cal deserves to be top 15. It may take games against West Virginia and then Virginia in December to paint that picture.
I love KenPom, but even he'll admit his ranking system sucks this early in the year. In fact, all rankings this early need to be taken with MASSIVE grains of salt.
Yeah. I won't even start inserting RPI numbers into the OP chart until after week 4. At that point, teams will have 20-25% of their schedule in the bank and about half of their non-conference games played. It will still be wonky, but it will have some meaning.
Tuesday games we care about:
Radford at Penn State (4:00)
Marquette vs Arizona State in Brooklyn (6:00, ESPN2)
St. Francis (PA) at Kent State (6:30)
Valparaiso at Oregon State (7:00, PACN)
Abilene Christian at CSU (7:00)
Alcorn State at Portland (8:00)
#5 Kansas vs UCLA in Maui (8:00, ESPN)
Cal State-LA at Washington State (9:00, PACN)
Radford at Penn State (4:00)
Marquette vs Arizona State in Brooklyn (6:00, ESPN2)
St. Francis (PA) at Kent State (6:30)
Valparaiso at Oregon State (7:00, PACN)
Abilene Christian at CSU (7:00)
Alcorn State at Portland (8:00)
#5 Kansas vs UCLA in Maui (8:00, ESPN)
Cal State-LA at Washington State (9:00, PACN)
Jimmy_Wood
Active Member
A better number to use is the Proj RPI based on Sagarin Ratings:
www.rpiforecast.com
www.rpiforecast.com
Something to keep in mind with the forecasts that make a pretty significant impact is that they don't include tournament games that are either/or. So the CU game against either Kent State or SMU isn't factored into the forecast. That throws the Buffs' number off quite a bit because it removes a Top 150 or maybe a Top 50 neutral site opponent from the CU schedule.
As much as I wish this wasn't the best thread on AllBuffs right now (I'd prefer debating which bowl we're going to or anything positive about recruiting in either sport), you are absolutely killing it Buffnik.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Penn State getting its ass kicked by Redford, right after PSU lost to Duquesne by 26. Nits won't do our resume any favors.
All those games in the B1G will keep their RPI from being too bad, but yeah, there's no real help there... only risk of a bad loss.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Yeah, for some reason I had it in my head that PSU was building some momentum and improving, but I think it was just from them getting hot for a couple days at the conference tourney. Seems preseason picks have them cellar dwelling. We really need that SMU game since a win over a 13-18 Nittany Lion side won't be turning any heads.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
ASU will win their share of Pac games at home and pluck off a couple lower tier road wins. 8-10ish Pac team, IMO.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Oregon State getting a wakeup call. Valpo has been in control of this one. We'll see if the Beavs have a run (down 48-37 midway thru the 2nd).
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
OT at CSU.
Frustrating part is knowing that even if CSU sucks, we'll be getting a very different performance from them.
Frustrating part is knowing that even if CSU sucks, we'll be getting a very different performance from them.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Valpo is a decent little side, but the worry here for Oregon State is that they were simply dominated throughout. 63-57 makes it sound closer than it was. Valpo was always in control. This was a trip back to the Craig Robinson era OSU.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
To 2OT we go..
Those ****ers better find a way not to screw up the Buffs schedule strength.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
UCLA sucks. Truly. I struggle to see how they Dance, but they've done this act before and wormed in with a strong February.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Wednesday:
CU (3-1) vs Air Force (3-1): Time for the Buffs to put in a solid 40 after the Omaha game. AFA appears the caliber of recent years: not the MWC's worst (SJSU takes that), but that's about all they're above. They've been cupcaking so far, with the loss coming at Southern Illinois in game 1 and subsequent wins over Tenn Tech, Miss Valley St, and Robert Morris.
Washington (3-0) vs 10 Gonzaga (2-0): This one is actually being played in the Bahamas, and UW has already played in China. UW has looked decent so far in their limited action, while Gonzaga is completely untested. Sooner or later the UW picked 11th in the Pac is going to pop up though. The Zags are always going to be ready for a chance to hammer an in-state Pac squad. UW win would be a major coup and cause a rethink of the Pac pecking order.
21 Oregon (4-0) vs Arkansas State (2-2): Ducks should roll. -21.5 line.
Hampton (2-1) @ William & Mary (3-1): Hampton has looked like a side capable of getting an auto-bid early on. For those not aware, this is a solid low-major program. A road win here is asking a lot, though. W&M has beaten NC State by 17. They're a good side with Dance ambitions and a notch above Hampton in terms of who they can recruit.
UCLA (3-2) vs Wake Forest (3-2): Maui. This is one the Pac needs. Wake is improving, but they're still a bottom third ACC squad. UCLA is expected to be in the thick of pushing for a P12 top 4 bye. To date, though, Wake has shown they're dangerous by knocking off Indiana while the Bruins have been poor (losing to Monmouth, etc..)
Omaha (2-2) @ Northern Colorado (1-3): Both CU opponents. Omaha is undoubtedly the better side. It's just a question of whether the CU loss left them hungover.
BYU (2-1) vs Miss Valley State (0-4): Wasteful game for RPI. We need BYU as strong as possible. Key component of our resume.
Nicholls State (1-2) @ New Mexico (3-1): Cannon fodder (and UNM isn't even good).
CU (3-1) vs Air Force (3-1): Time for the Buffs to put in a solid 40 after the Omaha game. AFA appears the caliber of recent years: not the MWC's worst (SJSU takes that), but that's about all they're above. They've been cupcaking so far, with the loss coming at Southern Illinois in game 1 and subsequent wins over Tenn Tech, Miss Valley St, and Robert Morris.
Washington (3-0) vs 10 Gonzaga (2-0): This one is actually being played in the Bahamas, and UW has already played in China. UW has looked decent so far in their limited action, while Gonzaga is completely untested. Sooner or later the UW picked 11th in the Pac is going to pop up though. The Zags are always going to be ready for a chance to hammer an in-state Pac squad. UW win would be a major coup and cause a rethink of the Pac pecking order.
21 Oregon (4-0) vs Arkansas State (2-2): Ducks should roll. -21.5 line.
Hampton (2-1) @ William & Mary (3-1): Hampton has looked like a side capable of getting an auto-bid early on. For those not aware, this is a solid low-major program. A road win here is asking a lot, though. W&M has beaten NC State by 17. They're a good side with Dance ambitions and a notch above Hampton in terms of who they can recruit.
UCLA (3-2) vs Wake Forest (3-2): Maui. This is one the Pac needs. Wake is improving, but they're still a bottom third ACC squad. UCLA is expected to be in the thick of pushing for a P12 top 4 bye. To date, though, Wake has shown they're dangerous by knocking off Indiana while the Bruins have been poor (losing to Monmouth, etc..)
Omaha (2-2) @ Northern Colorado (1-3): Both CU opponents. Omaha is undoubtedly the better side. It's just a question of whether the CU loss left them hungover.
BYU (2-1) vs Miss Valley State (0-4): Wasteful game for RPI. We need BYU as strong as possible. Key component of our resume.
Nicholls State (1-2) @ New Mexico (3-1): Cannon fodder (and UNM isn't even good).
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Looked at the rankings to see if we were receiving any votes yet at 3-1, and while we are not yet, I did find something interesting.
The ****ing CSU rams, the ones that went to 2OT with Abilene Christian, are receiving 13 votes in the AP poll. That makes them #36. They also have a vote in the coaches poll #40.
What the hell is that about?
The ****ing CSU rams, the ones that went to 2OT with Abilene Christian, are receiving 13 votes in the AP poll. That makes them #36. They also have a vote in the coaches poll #40.
What the hell is that about?
It's about them being #1 in RPI heading into that awful performance last night. fwiw, beating Abilene Christian dropped them to #14.
If anyone is curious, here are the RPI ranks: https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/rpi/
To give you an idea of how meaningless RPI is this early, Buffs are #18... one spot ahead of Kentucky.
To give you an idea of how meaningless RPI is this early, Buffs are #18... one spot ahead of Kentucky.