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Official Buffs Dance Resume Thread

Buffnik said:
This is a year when playing a 1 or 2 in the Rd of 32 wouldn't be all that bad.
Click to expand...

Right now, according to Lunardi, the 1's and 2's are:

Oklahoma
Villanova
Kansas
UNC

TAMU
Virginia
Iowa(?)
Xavier

Oklahoma is the only one I think we would really struggle with and mostly because of Hield.
 
Buffnik said:
Similar to the Pac-12 football season. Everyone decent to good, maybe no one great.
Click to expand...
But at what point are the records a result of really good teams falling victim to cannibalism, rather than just a pack of decent teams? Not making a case one way or another, as we won't know for sure until March.
 
Shldr2Shldr said:
Right now, according to Lunardi, the 1's and 2's are:

Oklahoma
Villanova
Kansas
UNC

TAMU
Virginia
Iowa(?)
Xavier

Oklahoma is the only one I think we would really struggle with and mostly because of Hield.
Click to expand...

Yeah. And by the time the Dance starts, it could be that the draw you don't want is a better seed catching a Kentucky, Maryland, Mich State, Wichita State, Florida, Duke, UConn or Indiana that took a while to figure it out but peaked at the right time.
 
Gary Indiana said:
But at what point are the records a result of really good teams falling victim to cannibalism, rather than just a pack of decent teams? Not making a case one way or another, as we won't know for sure until March.
Click to expand...

This is the Pac-12's fault. The OOC featured some good wins, but no great wins. IF the conference had dominated in the marquis games it had, the perception would be different.
 
Lunardi just released a new bracket.

1's, Oklahoma Villanova Iowa and UNC

Colorado an 8 seed, playing #9 seed South Carolina in Brooklyn. Villanova would be the 1 seed in our bracket.

Pac-12 (8 teams in, 1 bubble)

3 Oregon
6 USC
6 UofA
7 Utah
8 Colorado
10 Washington
11 Cal
12 UCLA

Stanford, next 4 out
 
Shldr2Shldr said:
This is the Pac-12's fault. The OOC featured some good wins, but no great wins. IF the conference had dominated in the marquis games it had, the perception would be different.
Click to expand...
I don't really agree with this.

ASU(!) beat A&M by double digits
USC beat Wichita St (Granted with no Van Vleet)
UCLA (another bottom half team at the moment) beat Kentucky & Gonzaga (at Gonzaga)
Arizona beat Gonzaga
Oregon beat Baylor
Washington split with Texas
Utah beat Duke

As of January 25th, the Pac 12 had 40 combined top 50 RPI victories.. the next closest conferences were the ACC and Big 12 with 30 a piece.

There were close misses: us vs. SMU/ISU, Arizona vs. Providence, Cal vs. UVA, but that's pretty solid top to bottom. No way any other conference has bottom half teams this far into conference play that beat ranked teams.
 
Shldr2Shldr said:
No way this team goes 3-6 the rest of the way.
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No easy road games left, with UW and UofA in Boulder. It could happen. Would hope they can just win out at home and not have to worry about getting a W on the road. That Utah loss can still come back to bite us.
 
We really need a road split and home sweep the next 4. I don't have much hope in the Oregon game. I think we can beat OSU, but that won't be easy either.
 
Goose said:
I wish I was this confident. I'm thinking 5 more wins are needed.
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Yep. Logically, 4 wins should be plenty to have a dance resume and probably even 3, but the committee's decision isn't necessarily logical. I don't see them taking the #7 team in the PAC unless it's UCLA, USC, or Arizona.
 
The committee definitely seems to favor the dangerous team over the more deserving team. They also seem to be placing a higher weighting on finishing strong in recent years. I think we can get in with only 4 more wins if one of those wins happens to be AZ or @ UCLA. Otherwise, I think it will take 5 wins and at least one win in the PAC12 tourney.
 
Goose said:
I wish I was this confident. I'm thinking 5 more wins are needed.
Click to expand...
I always hear they value how you finish the season. We have a tough closing schedule. We have a minimum of 10 games left. Of course, 10 means we go out in the first round of the Pac tournament, so that would be bad. These next 10 to 12 games are going to be really tough.
 
Goose said:
I wish I was this confident. I'm thinking 5 more wins are needed.
Click to expand...

Depends on the wins. 4 more regular season (OSU, Wazzu, Wash, ASU) is projected to have us with an RPI at 35 or so. I'd feel pretty good in that position assuming we didn't go lose to Wazzu in Vegas.
 
Close game. Houston up 2 against SMU with 16 seconds left. Game is on CBS Sports Network if you want to check it out.
 
Hi, I'm Team A. I have 5 losses. I'm 36th in RPI. I have played the 97th ranked schedule in terms of strength, and I have gone 3-5 against the top 100 RPI teams. I have exactly one win against the top 50 teams in the country. I'm ranked 21st in the AP poll, and 22nd in the coaches.

Hi, I'm Team B. I have 5 losses. I'm 21st in RPI. I have played the 48th ranked schedule in terms of strength, and I have gone 7-5 against the top 100 RPI teams. I have 3 wins against the top 50. I received one vote in the AP Poll last week, but not any votes at all this week.

Hi, I'm Team C. I have 5 losses. I'm 34th in RPI. I have played the 123rd ranked schedule in terms of strength, and I have gone 8-5 against the top 100 RPI teams. I have 2 wins against the top 50. I'm ranked 23rd in the AP poll and 20th in the coaches.

Team A- Wichita State
Team B- Colorado
Team C- Arizona
 
Denver_sc said:
Hi, I'm Team A. I have 5 losses. I'm 36th in RPI. I have played the 97th ranked schedule in terms of strength, and I have gone 3-5 against the top 100 RPI teams. I have exactly one win against the top 50 teams in the country. I'm ranked 21st in the AP poll, and 22nd in the coaches.

Hi, I'm Team B. I have 5 losses. I'm 21st in RPI. I have played the 48th ranked schedule in terms of strength, and I have gone 7-5 against the top 100 RPI teams. I have 3 wins against the top 50. I received one vote in the AP Poll last week, but not any votes at all this week.

Hi, I'm Team C. I have 5 losses. I'm 34th in RPI. I have played the 123rd ranked schedule in terms of strength, and I have gone 8-5 against the top 100 RPI teams. I have 2 wins against the top 50. I'm ranked 23rd in the AP poll and 20th in the coaches.

Team A- Wichita State
Team B- Colorado
Team C- Arizona
Click to expand...
I guess we could always look on the bright side - if our season finishes strong but this kind of bias holds up, we'll be likely facing an overseeded, east coast opponent which, if we beat, gives us a better path to the Sweet Sixteen.
 
Fight CU said:
can someone explain to me why homecourt advantage is so distinct in college basketball?
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This is my opinion so TIFWIW, shooting is a skill that can not be replicated 100% of the time. No matter how good of a player you are, you will never hit 100% of the shots you take. Now you compound that fact with travelling to an arena where the sight lines are not what you are used to. Some courts are NBA style and they have a ton of open space behind the basket, this throws off your depth perception. Some arenas have stanchions that can be distracting to your eye. Some have the students directly behind the basket that have taken it as their sole mission in life to distract you.

Then add the rest of the fans being insanely loud whenever you are trying to do something and the distractions add up. IT makes you as a player uncomfortable and makes it tougher to hit your shots.
 
Fight CU said:
can someone explain to me why homecourt advantage is so distinct in college basketball?
Click to expand...

In addition to what Shldr2Shldr said, there are statistics that support the idea that teams get a few more calls per game at home. IMO, there is the psychological effect of gettting booed every time a call is made against the home team that leads to slight shanges in referee behavior, even if they are not cognizant of it.

Add in the altitude effects and the weariness from travel and not sleeping in your own bed, and it all starts to add up.
 
Mostly, I think it's a lot easier to play at a tournament level intensity for most of the 40 minutes when at home. A lot of the home cooking with officiating is due to the calls favoring the team that is hustling & being more aggressive.
 
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