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Oklahoma St - Statistical Preview

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by jgisland, Dec 19, 2013.


  1. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    There have been some big games this year – Baylor, Harvard and Kansas but Oklahoma St may be the ultimate barometer on this season. Kansas was a statement game; some have called it a “program win”. And it was, I’m not going to try to discount that win, but while CU is extremely young (337[SUP]th[/SUP] in KenPom’s ratings) there are only 14 teams that are less experienced than CU, one of those fourteen is Kansas (349[SUP]th[/SUP]). So when we all turned the CEC into a true CU “home arena” instead of Allen Fieldhouse West, KU’s young guys may have been a little intimidated by the bright lights and the blackout. What does any of this have to do with Oklahoma State? Well, while Oklahoma St is not exactly a team of seasoned veterans (they have 1 Sr. on the roster who gets minutes) Marcus Smart isn’t going to be afraid of the bright lights of Vegas, he’s a guy who would start on more than a handful of NBA rosters. So this is why I consider this game the “real” barometer for CU, can they win against a talented top tier team on a neutral court when everybody is watching? Even if CU doesn’t win, making this a competitive game will be a solid measuring stick as CU heads into conference play.

    Now into the numbers –

    Colorado gets to the line a lot (5[SUP]th[/SUP] highest rate) in large part because they take the ball to the rack 6% more than average (44.1% of CU shots come at the rim). This may prove to be an interesting dynamic in the game. Oklahoma St. is not a team you’d consider tall, (241[SUP]st[/SUP] in effective height) and they don’t have a guy on their roster that plays that’s taller than 6-8, but somehow they block the 5[SUP]th[/SUP] most amount of shots at the rim (22.4%). What’s even more amazing is that there isn’t one guy blocking all of these shots, Oklahoma St spreads the blocks at the rim over 6 people and they do so without sending their opponents to the line, they’re below average in that department. They also boast the 29[SUP]th[/SUP] best defensive FG% at the rim.


    What to watch? What Oklahoma St. may lack in size, it certainly does not seem to be affecting their interior defense, can CU’s size advantage translate into a tangible advantage?

    This is a match-up of two of the top teams in terms of “Extra Scoring Chances per Game” (calculated as Offensive Rebounds + Opponent Turnovers - Opponent Offensive Rebounds – Turnovers). CU is 17[SUP]th[/SUP] at 5.9 per game while Oklahoma St is 19[SUP]th [/SUP]at 5.8 per game. CU’s number is probably artificially inflated a bit – CU is #1 in keeping opponents off of the offensive glass, but are they really? A handful of CU opponents didn’t even attempt to grab offensive boards in an attempt to limit CU’s transition opportunities. Oklahoma St. does a pretty good job of limiting transition opportunities while also doing a decent job on the offensive glass. Oklahoma St. doesn’t appear to be a team that’s going to retreat back on defense in an attempt to limit CU’s transition opportunities, they’ve got the athleticism to hit the boards while being able to get back on defense.

    What to watch? Can CU keep Oklahoma St. off the offensive boards and get out on the break?

    Half-court offense, will CU be able to score in the half-court? Oklahoma St’s defense is…..good. 15[SUP]th[/SUP] overall – they force turnovers, they block shots, and teams shoot poorly from mid-range and at the rim against them. They are in the top 10% in nearly every defensive category. Yes their defense is….. good.


    What to watch: Can CU score in the half court against an elite balanced defense?

    CU’s is defense is as always the hallmark of a Tad Boyle team, 18[SUP]th[/SUP] overall. But as I stated before, this is probably slightly inflated due to CU’s opponents forgoing offensive rebounds, making CU’s rebounding numbers skewed and making the defense on paper look a little better than it may actually be. So how does CU stop Oklahoma St and Marcus Smart? I’m guessing waves upon waves of players. You’ve most likely got to give Dinwiddie the first crack on Smart. But Smart is big and strong, XJ may get a crack, Hopkins could get a go on him and do we see the zone again?



    What to watch: Who guards Smart? What defensive schemes does Tad throw out there?

    How did Memphis beat Oklahoma St? In the first game of the season Oklahoma St. got out in transition and subsequently took 42.6% of their shots at the rim, it also didn’t hurt that Memphis couldn’t hit an outside shot to save their lives (23.1% from three). In the second game Memphis was able to limit Oklahoma St’s transition opportunities and forced them into taking 42.3% of their shots from mid-range. CU’s going to have to do something similar, Oklahoma St. is fast and athletic, so CU’s going to have to limit Oklahoma St’s transition opportunities and shots at the rim, these are two things CU does pretty well. They are 52[SUP]nd[/SUP] in opponent’s % of shots at the rim and 37[SUP]th[/SUP] in % of opponent’s initial shots that come in transition.

    What to watch? Can CU force Oklahoma St into a half-court offense and prevent them from getting good looks at the rim?
     
  2. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    First off, I gotta think Tad goes with the same defense he threw at Wiggins when it comes to Smart. I think we go J-Hop on him. When he gets his two fouls, we throw out Fletch. Then King. Just keep the waves going. In the crunch time, we'll see Spencer or XJ on him (probably Spencer, as we're going to need XJ down low). But just send lots of looks his way.

    I think we give up more offensive rebounds than we have previously, but we still put up solid numbers. They're going to crash the boards, but not as hard as they normally do. We won't see full-Wyoming where everyone runs back immediately, but they're going to back off a touch. They know they have the advantage in halfcourt D. So they'll try to slow us down there.

    Ultimately, I think it comes down to our O vs their D in the halfcourt. If we can be good, we win the game. If they shut us down, we lose.
     
  3. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    I think CU wins this game by attacking the mid-range and knocking down a bunch of 12-18 ft jumpers.
     
  4. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    That is pretty much the blue print for success
     
  5. Zachsquatch

    Zachsquatch New Member

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    I am curious (and this may just be a qualitative stat) as to what the general breakdown of their at the rim defense is, when comparing transition versus half-court set shots.

    Basically, what's the probability of Jelly rollin? Would love a monster game from him.
     
  6. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    I'm worried about how the refs call things on the interior. If they let defenders get slap happy in the post like we've seen some nights, that's big advantage to OSU. But if they call it tight, I think that's big advantage CU.
     
  7. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    OSU has pretty good FT defense, but not nearly as good as Kansas', so that helps.
     
  8. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

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    only if they are open right?
     
  9. Swish

    Swish Half a bubble off Club Member

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    True, and I also think we win this game by keeping them under 49.5% from the field.
     
  10. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    fadeaway
     
  11. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    Column 1
    [TR]
    [TD="colspan: 3"] Oklahoma St Defense[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Category[/TD]
    [TD]FGA[/TD]
    [TD]FG% at rim[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Transition[/TD]
    [TD]119[/TD]
    [TD]54.10%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Non-Transition[/TD]
    [TD]462[/TD]
    [TD]49.40%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]30 Seconds into Possession[/TD]
    [TD]34[/TD]
    [TD]57.10%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Putbacks[/TD]
    [TD]41[/TD]
    [TD]70.40%[/TD]
    [/TR]


    The 30 seconds into the possession % is surprising to me, you'd think taking a team that deep into the shot clock would mean they're going to put up something ugly.
     
  12. Zachsquatch

    Zachsquatch New Member

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    Thanks for the stats. As others have said, this is a great matchup. CU has weapons to match the boys, comes down to defense.

    Seems like Spencer either takes it to the rack right away or late in the clock, let's hope those FG% translate nicely. Way too excited for this, will be watching at Blake Street with a rowdy group of Buffs
     
  13. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

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    Buffs open at 6pt underdogs. That line is probably gonna move.
     
  14. scoob

    scoob Club Member Club Member

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