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One quarter of the way into the season...

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by leftybuff, Sep 21, 2009.

  1. leftybuff

    leftybuff Iconoclast Club Member

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    Good win against a woeful WY team.

    At least the Buffs didn't lose that trifecta to another mid-tier team.

    A few observations, then a few predictions.

    The D had a good game. But let's keep perspective, WY is installing a new O, and none of their QB's appear to understand it or have the accuracy to run it. Nevertheless, the D gang tackled and actually looked like they were ready to play rather than being completely confused by the D scheme. I heard DH say they had packages with as few as 1 DL v. Toledo. I didn't notice that, but if it is true, and they return to any scheme that is fundamentally different than what they ran v. WY, it will be a monument to arrogance. If the best kids are put on the field and just allowed to play ball without some hyper-complex gimmicky scheme, it appears they can be quite effective.

    On the O, it was nice to see the run game go. It still looks to me like the OL doesn't get a giant push. RS gets tons of credit IMO, as his shiftiness is what really got the run game clicking. I am not sure a Sumler or even Scott would have gotten those yards as there weren't nice clean creases to run through as one would expect against, a supposedly inferior opponent.

    The pass game remains stagnant. Maybe it is lack of WR play. Although that is a pretty weak excuse as every WR on the roster was available. Maybe it is OL, but I doubt it as the run game was having success and there was very little in the way of QB pressure. We were told CH was the most efficient QB CU has. If that is true we are screwed. Just like a good RB is judge by ypc, QB's are judged by YPA. A good run attack gets 3.5 or more ypc. A good passing attack exceeds 7.0 ypa. This is because you must account for and overcome the incompletion rate, usually around 40%, and situational, you throw when you expect more yards than the average run. CH, as the triggerman in the pass attack, remains in the 5.6 ypa range. That means most of the passes he completes are those five yard curls and dump offs into the flat you see ad nauseam.

    If it goes deep, it is almost exclusively against man coverage, which opposing DC's do not fear running because the long ball is rarely completed. CH's ypa has gone from 6.4 in '07 (hardly stellar), to 5.9 in '08, down to 5.6 in '09. It was 5.6 against a weak WY team Sat. with virtually no QB pressure, a functioning run game and the coach's choice of WR's. This is a very bad development which is hard to imagine improving. If the pass game remains this inefficient, (which is dead last in efficiency per the Big 12 site) CU will be lucky to reach .500, especially given the 2 losses to entirely beatable foes to open the season.

    This looks like a four to five win team to me, I hope I am wrong.
     
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2009
  2. NashBuff

    NashBuff CSU Knob-Slobberer

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    lefty, you are not the only one who isn't buying into the fact that CU's season has turned around after blanking Wyoming 24-0.

    I'd wait to see how CU does at WVU before making any further conclusions about the CU season but if CH's ypa keeps going down, CU's offense will just go nowhere.

    Good post.
     
  3. leftybuff

    leftybuff Iconoclast Club Member

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    WVu will tell us a lot. WVU is more athletic than any opponent CU has faced thus far. The only hope is that Bill Stewart has a pretty high ineptness quotient, he seems to misuse his talent as much as any other HC I've noticed.
     
  4. OKCBuff

    OKCBuff Well-Known Member

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    So it's a fair fight for Hawk, then.
     
  5. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    agreed. its gonna be aloooong season.
     
  6. NashBuff

    NashBuff CSU Knob-Slobberer

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    Are you sure Stewart has misused his talent more than Hawkins has done at CU? Might want to revisit that. :thumbsup:
     

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