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Phil Steele - do you believe in him or not

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by 77buff, May 30, 2009.

  1. 77buff

    77buff Well-Known Member

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    Has Texas #2, OU #4, Notre Dame #7, and Nebraska #22. Has CU his #8 most improved team, and says "Hawkins is on one of the hottest seats of all coaches this year but the Buffs make my list of the Most Improved Teams which has me calling for their 1st winning season since 2005". Lists Nate Solder as 6-9, that would make him taller than Curt Koch.
     
    Last edited: May 30, 2009
  2. BoBigRed

    BoBigRed Guest

    He's been pretty acurate the last decade.
     
  3. buff4bcs1985

    buff4bcs1985 Hail to the King

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    he may be on the hot seat now...
     
  4. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    If you want to sell your publications rand Notre Dame and Nebraska highly. Both teams have huge fan bases that are willing to pay big money to hear someone tell them how great they are, even if they aren't. OU and Texas also fall into that catagory but in their cases you can make an argument based on talent that they will be very good.

    I don't know how tall Solder is but he has a huge frame that he is working on filling out. Miller is reportedly 6'8" and some including him coming out of high school said he was 6'9". Solder is right there with him when they stand side by side.

    Barring another ridiculous string of injuries this team is ready for a major step up this year. Simply based on much better depth and another year of maturity this team should win at least 8 games and Hawk's 10 is not unreasonable.

    If we do start to accumulate wins the recruiting will follow and we should see a continued trend upward.

    Notre Dame has had top 10 recruiting classes for the past 6 years and still can't get out of their own way. I don't know how much of it is the players being overrated because they are committed or look like they will be committing to Notre Dame and how much of it is that the Notre Dame program is a place where talent goes to die.
     
  5. JimmyBuff

    JimmyBuff Well-Known Member

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    NO..


    And exactly what hot seat is Hawk on? He's already got an extension through 2012...
     
  6. Mick Ronson

    Mick Ronson Well-Known Member

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    i have a buddy, who despite being a pretty solid guy, is a ND fan. his thinking is that ND should win 9 games since the schedule is pretty easy/sets up favorably.

    and i think with 9 wins ND qualifies for the BCS championship game.
     
  7. Daaah

    Daaah Club Member Club Member

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    Yeah. They don't have to play syracuse this year.
     
    1 person likes this.
  8. zbuff

    zbuff Club Member Club Member

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    Yeah, 9-3 will always get you into the ch game. :wow:
     
  9. Mick Ronson

    Mick Ronson Well-Known Member

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    yeah, those greg robinson teams were tough.
     
  10. Coloradosker

    Coloradosker Active Member

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    Phil has been the most accurate preseason mag for the last 20+ years. His predictions are uncanny because he does more research than anyone else and very, very rarely does he miss, esspecially on his most improved teams. As much as I hate to say it, ND is going to end up winning 9-10 games this season. One of the big factors is their experienced O Line. they have more than 100 starts between them. The team was young last season but is returning everyone and if you look at their schedule, there's a lot of easy wins:
    Sept. 5 NEVADA
    Sept. 12 at Michigan
    Sept. 19 MICHIGAN STATE
    Sept. 26 at Purdue
    Oct. 3 WASHINGTON
    Oct. 10 Open Date
    Oct. 17 USC
    Oct. 24 BOSTON COLLEGE
    Oct. 31 vs. Washington State (at San Antonio, Texas)
    Nov. 7 NAVY
    Nov. 14 at Pittsburgh
    Nov. 21 CONNECTICUT
    Nov. 28 at Stanford

    Most of these that were bowl teams last season lost really important players like MSU, Pitt, and UConn. As far as ranking NU, if they win the 8-9 that most expect they should probably be ranked in the back of the top 25.
     
  11. 14er

    14er “Imitation is suicide.” -Ralph Waldo Emerson

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    F*** nd
     
  12. CarolinaBuff

    CarolinaBuff Weekend Poster Club Member

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    Steele is not putting in ND in his top 10 to sell magazines. He doesn't take the trendy route and pick who finished hot the previous season and stay away from teams who finished poorly down the stretch. He does it with looking at key factors such as how many close or tough losses a team had and takes into account, as well as how many marginal wins you had when considering over-rated teams from the previous season. And the schedule is a huge factor in his ratings. Remember, Steele's rankings aren't based on how good he thinks each team is, it's based on how he thinks teams will finish the season. And as Coloradosker noted, ND will be undoubtedly have a better team than last year, but combine that with the ridiculously easy schedule they have and they're going to win at least 9 games. Hell, Iowa State could win 8 games with that schedule. :huh:

    For those who already have his magazine, I'd be curious to see where he has them in his power ratings?

    Let me put it this way - if ND was playing in the SEC or Big 12, he'd have them ranked somewhere in the 20's.
     
  13. BoBigRed

    BoBigRed Guest

    I didn't know that college teams paid Phil to write about them, I guess big money to you is spending $5.99 on a magazine. I thought that magazines made their money on advertising.
     
  14. The Guest

    The Guest Guest

    First off I'm a big Phil Steele fan, and I think he makes a genuine effort to rank teams based on quality research.

    However, I do believe some publications and online services do cater to particular fan bases. You see, bobigred, pre-season football magazines doesn't only sell one magazine to each fan base. In fact--and apparently this might surprise you based on your above post--the more people in each fan base the publisher can convince to purchase their product, the more money they make. I'm gonna give you a rough formula here: $5.99 multiplied by the number of magazines sold contributes to the gross profit.

    Notre Dame and nebraska both field teams with notoriously large and loyal fanbases. It seems logical, if a publisher gives those fan bases a reason to be excited about their magazine or online service, the more money it could make.

    I think that Mt.'s point to which you responded.

    BRI might think I'm an asshole, but I'm wondering if he's gonna swoop in and defend your dumb ass on this one...

    EDIT:

    And another thing:

    Advertisers pay more money if they anticipate higher circulation. If a particular pre-season mag routinely outsells the competition, then that magazine can reasonably charge its advertisers more for the service.

    It all adds up to a tremendous incentive to sell a lot of magazines. It would therefore seem prudent, from a purely business perspective, to kiss the asses of those fan bases who have more people willing to spend their money on products relating to college football.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 31, 2009
  15. BoBigRed

    BoBigRed Guest

    I guess that lofty ranking he gave NU last year was an advertising windfall. So I guess all of his rankings are BS since he only caters to fan bases to sell magazines. Since your a fan I guess your just one of the sheep.
     
  16. The Guest

    The Guest Guest

    Please read my post again, particularly the first part.

    And then consider how robustly nebraska's Scout site is staffed compared to CU's.

    EDIT: My point is, I believe that Phil Steele is one of the guys that uses his reputation of reliability to sell magazines. However, if you use nebraska's win/loss record last season as evidence of Phil Steele's reliability, Notre Dame's lack of success would then raise some questions.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 31, 2009
  17. The Monk

    The Monk Club Member Club Member

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    Eh, the Notre Dame schedule isn't that easy, I see what could easily amount to 6 losses none of which would be upsets making that a terrible ranking. Nebraska is par for the course comparing them to other preseason rankings, but of course Phil Steele isn't supposed to be just another set of rankings.
     
  18. 77buff

    77buff Well-Known Member

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    Top 10 Power Poll - Steele
    1 Florida
    2 Texas
    3 Oklahoma
    4 USC
    5 Mississippi
    6 Penn State
    7 Alabama
    8 LSU
    9 Notre Dame
    10 California

    4 teams from the SEC, 2 from the PAC 10 and the Big 12
    If they were playing in the SEC, they would be unranked.
     
    Last edited: May 31, 2009
  19. CarolinaBuff

    CarolinaBuff Weekend Poster Club Member

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    There's exactly 1 game on that schedule that they won't be favored to win. And the tougher games which could be considered toss-ups are all at home (UConn, BC, MSU). I hate to say it, but they're gonna win at least 9 games. :sad1:
     
  20. CarolinaBuff

    CarolinaBuff Weekend Poster Club Member

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    Thanks. I'm really surprised he has ND that high because I figured the majority of the reason he had them at #7 was due to their joke of a schedule.

    Mississippi #5? :wtf:
     
  21. The Guest

    The Guest Guest

    Mississippi was the real deal last season.
     
  22. 77buff

    77buff Well-Known Member

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    They are for real brother. Ed Orgeron did a great job recruting before he got fired. Houston Nutt is one of the best coaches in college football. Arkansas was nutts to let him get away. They don't have the biggest fan base but they are very suppportive of their program, and it doesn't hurt to have guys like Archie Manning doing PR work for free.
     
  23. CarolinaBuff

    CarolinaBuff Weekend Poster Club Member

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    How quickly I forget! :smile2: I forgot that they won at both the Swamp and at LSU, plus the impressive Cotton Bowl win over TT. And looking at this year's schedule, it's extremely manageable as far as SEC schedules go. Their 2 toughest games (Bama and LSU) are both at home.
     
  24. BIGREDIOWAN

    BIGREDIOWAN Well-Known Member

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    No way in hell do I agree that ND will be ranked that high. They will be better, but not that much better. Oh wait, they're Notre Dame and they automatically get ranked in the top 10 just because they are Notre Dame. I ****ing hate Notre Dame just because of this and their lucrative television deal. :sad2:

    As far as CU being a much improved team I think that's obviously a no brainer. With all the injuries to CU last season they can only be better with the guys they have returning. Hawk is a good coach and I've said that before, but he needs to have a little luck with him on his side to get over this injury bug he's been cursed with.

    NU will get back in the Top 25 if they beat VT, but not before. If they lose to VT they will most likely have to claw their way into the Top 25 by beating other teams on their schedule fairly badly. Obviously I don't think we'll beat OU, but neither does anyone else in the nation that isn't a NU fan. If we some how shock the world and beat OU, probably won't happen, then we'll definately make up for a loss to VT. If we can win 9 games this season then of course that is a success based on all the new guys we have in key positions.

    Do I think that magazines are sometimes sold based on fan bases and predictions by writers? Absolutely and if you don't think that's true then you need take some classes in business. I do think that Steele is fairly close on the NU assessment as we are on the cusp of being a fairly decent team again.
     
  25. 77buff

    77buff Well-Known Member

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    If you look at ND's schedule, it's not tough except for USC. ND is a tiny school with a very small alumni base, the reason they have so many fans is because of their winning tradition and the Catholic church - which owns the world. Everybody wants to be associated with a winner. $hit, 95% of Notre Dame fans couldn't qualify for admission to the university. I can absolutely guarantee that over 99% have never taken a class at ND.
    They aren't real fans, after a few losing seasons they will become USC, or Florida, or Oklahoma, or LSU fans, or whoever is on top.
     
    Last edited: May 31, 2009
    CarolinaBuff likes this.
  26. BIGREDIOWAN

    BIGREDIOWAN Well-Known Member

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    Agreed.
     
  27. The Guest

    The Guest Guest

    I took the liberty of adding a few minor changes. Maybe BRI will do the same, I'd be curious to see his view of CU fans.
     
  28. zbuff

    zbuff Club Member Club Member

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    Yeah, I realized this a long time ago when an Irish (heritage) guy I worked with was talking up ND and I asked him when he went there.

    :rofl2:
     
  29. 77buff

    77buff Well-Known Member

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    :lol:
     
  30. navybuff

    navybuff Member

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    Do any of you remember that ND was a preseason #1 in Quinn's senior year.

    We all know what happened that year?

    ND hasn't really been a factor since the Holz years.
     

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