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Punt Return Efficiency, FBS Win%, and Offensive Efficiency

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by Quattro, Sep 17, 2014.

  1. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

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    So there's been some talk about needing a dynamic guy to return punts, so I wanted to see how returns affected win% and scoring offense.

    PRE and FBS Win%
    [​IMG]

    PRE and OFEI
    [​IMG]

    So it appears that punt returns don't have a ton of value at the college level in recent years
     
    OrangeBowl, skibum, goalline and 2 others like this.
  2. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    ymssra
     
  3. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    If we could chart punt return fumbles, that would be the nail in the coffin of this discussion. Unless PRE includes that.
     
  4. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

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    Here's the link....

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feist2013

    In having trouble finding the formula used though
     
  5. AeroBuff99

    AeroBuff99 Club Member Club Member

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    tante and Denver_sc like this.
  6. DBT

    DBT Club Member Club Member

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    :wow:
     
  7. Denver_sc

    Denver_sc Club Member Club Member

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    Me too. Somebody hit him up.
     
  8. BuffLuKe

    BuffLuKe Club Member Club Member

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    Got him.
     
  9. Bufffan68

    Bufffan68 Club Member Club Member

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    Wow. Talk about 0.0 correlation.
     
  10. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    All this said, we fans are more entertained when the team has a dynamic punt returner and having someone like that back there does put more pressure on the opposing team (always a good thing).

    Ideally, I'd want to have it all. Hopefully a guy like Donovan Lee can become as trustworthy on making the right decision on what to catch, what to fair catch, and ball security. Because I think he's got the tools to be more of a weapon or threat that the opposition has to spend time game planning for.

    Spruce is right in the middle of the Pac-12 in punt return yards, but I don't think ST Coordinators are spending any extra practice time prepping for him.
     
  11. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

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    Think it's actually a -3% correlation for the bottom graph :lol:
     
  12. patebuff

    patebuff Downgraded to half a star Club Member

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    Good stuff.
     
  13. Bufffan68

    Bufffan68 Club Member Club Member

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    So we should try to suck at PRE :lol:
     
  14. goalline

    goalline Jedi Master Club Member

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    So, like the discussion around kick offs, should we just eliminate all aspects of the game that don't correlate to the final score? A team would have the option to go for it on fourth down, or have the ball placed 40 yards away for the other team.

    I think this result would need to account for fumbles or dynamic plays (which only happen occasionally) in a different way than just looking at punt return yardage. A player might call for a fair catch 4 times, and then on the fifth one bust a game changing return. Can you run the stats for games won if at least 6 points were earned by a punt return? Or, a fumble recovery?
     
  15. AeroBuff99

    AeroBuff99 Club Member Club Member

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    Statistics don't account for outlier occurrences. That is actually the point is to find what happens most of the time with some reasonable sense of confidence (mean, standard deviation). The argument then becomes why do coaches routinely punt the ball on 4th and short (3 yards or less) if the statistics show that by doing so doesn't do anything to improve their chances of winning and most likely decreases their chance of winning by providing the opposing team with another opportunity to score. If the opposing teams likelihood of scoring is the same from their own goal line up to your 10 yard line, why give them the ball instead of keeping it and trying for the first down?
     
  16. BlackNGold

    BlackNGold Club Member Club Member

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  17. AeroBuff99

    AeroBuff99 Club Member Club Member

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    If you look at the previous chart, it shows a range of ~2 to 3.9 for everything outside the redzone and only jumps to 4.8 until the 10. So basically the numbers say you are going to get a field goal most of the time you touch the ball. Inside the redzone that jumps to a touchdown occasionally, inside the 10 is a touchdown almost all of the time. Another way to say it is that if you give it to your opponent anywhere inside the 30 yard line, he scores a field goal 50%+ of the time, from the 30 to 50 it looks to be about 70% of the time, from inside the 50 to the 10 it is almost guaranteed to get at least a field goal. So in essence every time you give the ball back, they are probably going to get a field goal out of it. Turn it over inside your own 10 and it is a touchdown.
     
  18. skibum

    skibum Peed in your Cheerios. Club Member

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    There are some coaches that always go for it on 4th down, and always go for an onside kick on their kick-offs, because that's what the statistics say you should do. So far, those coaches can only be found at the high school level and low level college (JUCOs, DIII, NAIA). Some of them are having a lot of success.

    Sooner or later, a desperate AD in DII will give one of them a chance. If they have success, there will be others that follow. Then a desperate FCS AD will take the chance, then an FBS school, and finally a P5.

    Not sure the strategy will ever enter the mainstream (or make it to the No Fun League), but some of us will probably live to see a P5 coach that never punts and always kicks off onside...
     
  19. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

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    Chip Kelly was a guy who used stats to make decisions
     
  20. GoonieBuff

    GoonieBuff Not really Club Member

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    You can use stats to support or discredit any argument.
     
  21. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

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    I found some stats that disagree with your statement.
     
  22. buffs04

    buffs04 Well-Known Member

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    If you believe that good teams tend to do all things well because they have good players and good coaching then you also shouldn't believe that correlation between a particular statistic and winning % means that that factor is particularly important in determining whether or not a team wins.
     
  23. SBG

    SBG Formerly known as EFNMB Club Member Junta Member

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    What about the ability to block punts or fgs? We suck ass on those.

    Can you chart the same for the top 20% and compare it vs the bottom 20% (where we are)?
     
  24. FLounder

    FLounder The Buffs will rise again! Club Member

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    Rutgers has the most punt blocks since 2009. Whatever that means.
     
  25. White_Rabbit

    White_Rabbit Club Member Club Member

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    Where's that size doesn't determine production study tini?
     
  26. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

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    White_Rabbit likes this.
  27. sliderNcider

    sliderNcider MacLovin Club Member

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    He sends that same study to his love interests
     
  28. DBT

    DBT Club Member Club Member

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    I was sitting at the bar eating a slice of pie when a bell went off in my head. I draw the line in sports when the saber metric axis of evil intercepts what is good and we go down the slippery slope of evaluating sports performance based on statistics. I just don't get the point. And some of you guys wonder why your ex left you. So I'll throw you a curve. Why not just sit back and enjoy the game?
     
  29. Daaah

    Daaah Club Member Club Member

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    It's hard to enjoy the game when we suck ass. So perennial optimists turn to things that might help them ignore the fact that we suck in an effort to enjoy the games.
     
  30. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

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    Or you know it provides another way to look at the game because it interests you
     

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