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QB recruiting & Star ratings

Discussion in 'University of Colorado Recruiting Archive' started by es355, Oct 25, 2013.

  1. es355

    es355 New Member

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    In looking back through the recruiting archives, I saw the thread on Shane Dillon. Everyone was really pumped about the prospect of getting this recruit to CU. And I ask, based on what? Not to bag on Shane because I'm sure there are many other examples but this is the first one I saw.

    It seems that recruits are evaluated based solely on their Rivals, Scout, etc. star rating? And where do those stars come from? Camps, 7 v 7, height, vertical jump? Thats not a very good indicator of good QB play. Works OK for someone like Colt Lyerla, 6'5", 225lbs and runs like a deer - in high school. You want those athletes on the field. But QB requires so many other attributes outside of that. These were his stats in HS.

    2010 junior stats:

    Completions: 206
    Attempts: 388
    Yards: 2,978
    Completion %: 53.1%
    Yards/Attempt: 7.68
    Touchdowns: 19
    Interceptions: 14

    Why is any HS player so highly regarded then? He's tall, can throw the ball far, and lived in California or Texas? If a player has all the physical tools shouldn't they rip up the other small schools they play in HS? Those numbers are more of a red flag to me. Nobody was too excited about Jordan Webb coming to CU, 6'0", 195lbs, but he showed he can play at Kansas. Would Drew Brees even get offers if he played HS in Colorado or Wyoming instead of Texas?

    How about Connor Wood, Second Baptist HS, TX (1,100 students grades k-12). Four star QB because of size, arm strength, and played in TX.

    Senior stats: 213-398 53.5%, 2699 yds, 19td's, 9 int's. OK, but not off the charts for a 4 star. 53% completion against small schools.

    I guess all I'm saying is QB evaluations are flawed in high school. Everyone, including coaches, are too enamored with size/strength instead of what really matters most - can he play. Star ratings - add one for CA or TX, add one for 6'3" or above, add one for being able to throw the ball through a brick wall. Forget what he does with pressure and not throwing from a clean pocket, reading a defense, accuracy.....the things that matter most.

    Rant over. I hope Sefu can play.
     
    TimmyDUBs likes this.
  2. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Yup, rankings don't matter. And I hope you learn how to spell QB1's name.
     
  3. The Ogre

    The Ogre Club Member Club Member

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    Why has this never been discussed on AllBuffs before?

    Wait. Something seems fishy - is Webb going to be the surprise starter tomorrow?
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2013
  4. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    Jordan Webb showed he can play at Kansas?
     
  5. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Missed that gem. rough start for the noob. He has potential though.
     
  6. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    QB evaluations are tough. The post-Barnett QB recruit I was most excited about was Clark Evans. I've learned to wait and see what they do on the field. Nothing on film tells us how well a kid competes and leads. All we can do is look at the physical attributes and offer list, then hope our coaches successfully identified the intangibles.
     
  7. boydbuff

    boydbuff Club Member Club Member

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    To give the new guy some credit, we have spoken ad nauseum about the relevance of recruiting rankings but less about the relative importance of stars for QBs

    For the reasons he and nik suggest there is some truth about the crapshoot selecting QBs can be compared with other positions
     
  8. es355

    es355 New Member

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    In my defense:

    2010KansasBig 12FRQB121-214, 56.5%1195yds5.64.67td8int106.8
    2011KansasBig 12SOQB179-28163.7%1884yds6.75.713td12int126.7

    A 106 and 126 passer rating in '10 & '11 isn't bad.
     
  9. dply

    dply Doble hoja Club Member

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    I think that one falls on BCS's shoulders. Dude was too scared to become anything great.
     
  10. dply

    dply Doble hoja Club Member

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    It's not the same scale as the NFL. 106 and 126 are not that good.

    1Cody Hawkins12423153.715476.76.9145125.6
    2Tyler Hansen11216468.311026.75.866129.5
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2013
  11. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

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    I'm not sure there's a leg image defense for your comment about Webb


    Sent from a red light
     
  12. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    I think if you wanted to pick the right examples and schools you could make an argument that any position is kind of a crapshoot. Look at CU history at the RB position. We have had two RBs in semi-recent history who were consensus 5* recruits in Scott and Houston who both turned out to be bust and some lower rated guys who turned out pretty well in guys like Stewart and Brown.

    The problem with this stuff is that the arguments are made with ancedotal evidence and ignore the quantitative evidence. Without dredging up the numbers there is plenty of evidence that the higher a kid is rated coming out of high school the higher percentage chance he has of ending up in the NFL or of becoming a solid contributor on a ranked team.

    And Duff is right, Webb showed that he could get on the field at Kansas. His winning percentage might indicate that there is some question about how effectively he can play.
     
  13. TimmyDUBs

    TimmyDUBs Dirty haole Club Member

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    My takeaway is that for QB colleges shouldn't rate high school recruits the same way pros rate college guys. I agree that you should look more closely at completion percentage and TD:INT ratios than physical attributes. Get the guys with the intangibles. They can succeed where the Wood's and Dillon's might not.
     
  14. Creebuzz

    Creebuzz Club Member Club Member

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    Someone should write an Allbuffs white paper on the relevance of recruit rankings and pin it to the top of the football board.
     
  15. The Ogre

    The Ogre Club Member Club Member

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    That's racist. On behalf of dply and others, I'm offended.
     
  16. o_robbie

    o_robbie I don't think before I post

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    Pretty sure Shane Dillon showed very well at the camps earning him his high 3 star grade. Evaluating QB's in H.S. is very difficult over a long term projection but identifying guys who are going to come in and compete right away isn't nearly as difficult. If Dillon hadn't had his shoulder injury he was on the cusp of a guy rated as ready to compete right away. Usually the 4 star and 5 star guys are all like that. Now when you get to QB's who are under 4 stars. I think they are total crap shoots. Especially now with the spread option. I am thinking of Bernard Jackson as a guy who would have liked the pistol offense who may have ended up being a better QB at CU
     
  17. FLounder

    FLounder The Buffs will rise again! Club Member

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    If B-Jax threw a rock at the ground it would probably an incompletion.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  18. o_robbie

    o_robbie I don't think before I post

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    I don't remember the talent around B.Jax but the pistol would have suited him. I do remember we ran a hole lot with him at QB.
     
  19. GoonieBuff

    GoonieBuff Not really Club Member

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    ???
     
  20. BlackNGold

    BlackNGold Club Member Club Member

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    Quarterback is no different than other positions when it comes to rankings. Teddy Bridgewater - was a 4 star coming out of HS and had offers from everyone. Has shown well in college. Brett Hundley - 5 star coming out of HS had offers from everyone. Has done well with the Bruins. Jeff Driskel - 5 star QB started for the Gators until he broke his leg. A lot of highly rated QBs make it and a number of them do not. You tilt the odds in your favor the more highly rated they are.
     
  21. White_Rabbit

    White_Rabbit Club Member Club Member

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    Please read this people and then extrapolate it to recruiting as a whole. Then, don't respond to anymore recruiting threads with "BUT ADDISON GILLAM/RODNEY STEWART/DARRELL SCOTT". I'm looking at you Wizzerenuff.

    Thank you.
     
  22. o_robbie

    o_robbie I don't think before I post

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    I actually disagree a little bit. I don't think lower rated recruits break it through as often at the QB position. Especially in the elite schools.
     
  23. sliderNcider

    sliderNcider MacLovin Club Member

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    Ya we should have known when Dillon put up pretty pedestrian numbers and vs terrible competition. Sefo/Apsay had much better season and vs much better competition. I just checked and Sefo had a 69% completion as a SR:wow:. Sefo's Soph season was actually statistically better than Dillon's SR year.

    Apsay so far:

    64% completion 2242 yards 19 TD's and 4 INT's.

    And that's in one of the toughest leagues in Socal iirc. Plus I had never even heard of Canyon Country HS until Apsay and this year they've beaten Westlake and Clovis West (6-2 on the season with losses to Notre Dame and Tedric Thompson's Valencia HS). From everything I've read he has turned a perennial doormat into a contender
     
  24. White_Rabbit

    White_Rabbit Club Member Club Member

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    Canyon Country was really good when Harry Welch was there. They beat De La Salle for a state title a few years back. They went bad when he ditched for Rancho Santa Margarita and a pad in Coto De Caza.

    I don't really buy that high school stats really matter, but it wasn't overly pleasing that Dillon put up the numbers that he did vs the worst competition in California.
     

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