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Quick Post: Defending my attack on Cal's resume

Discussion in 'CU Buffs Newsroom' started by RSSBot, Jan 12, 2012.

  1. RSSBot

    RSSBot News Junkie

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    Not like anyone needs to defend against an attack on a Pac-12 team this season (they're all painfully flawed basketball teams), but I ran across an article that defends my statement from the preview that "I'm not all that impressed with Cal's resume so far. Yes, they've crushed plenty of teams by large amounts, but almost every opponent of note that they have faced has beaten them, often handily."

    What I was obliquely referencing is the concept of rating inflation. Teams, even good ones, beat up average to below-average opponents, hold serve against the best in the nation, and come out ahead in both RPI and deper metrics like Kenpom's. It's one of the flaws in statistical projections that is often glibed over by people such as myself.

    Dan Hammer at RealGM hit on this topic today when discussing Wisconsin, but he also provided enough info to back up my point on Cal. As you can see by the following chart, Cal is 5th in the nation in rating inflation. You may also want to note Arizona's #6 position on the same chart.
    [​IMG]
    That's not to say that Cal isn't a good team, it's just that they are justifiably kept out of the top-25, and have yet to achieve anything of note. The other thing: since the Pac-12 is so weak, they have few remaining chances to improve their cause against the top-100.

    To reiterate, the Pac-12 is garbage at basketball this season.[​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Not like anyone needs to defend against an attack on a Pac-12 team this season (they're all painfully flawed basketball teams), but I ran across an article that defends my statement from the preview that "I'm not all that impressed with Cal's resume so far. Yes, they've crushed plenty of teams by large amounts, but almost every opponent of note that they have faced has beaten them, often handily."

    What I was obliquely referencing is the concept of rating inflation. Teams, even good ones, beat up average to below-average opponents, hold serve against the best in the nation, and come out ahead in both RPI and deper metrics like Kenpom's. It's one of the flaws in statistical projections that is often glibed over by people such as myself.

    Dan Hammer at RealGM hit on this topic today when discussing Wisconsin, but he also provided enough info to back up my point on Cal. As you can see by the following chart, Cal is 5th in the nation in rating inflation. You may also want to note Arizona's #6 position on the same chart.
    [​IMG]
    That's not to say that Cal isn't a good team, it's just that they are justifiably kept out of the top-25, and have yet to achieve anything of note. The other thing: since the Pac-12 is so weak, they have few remaining chances to improve their cause against the top-100.

    To reiterate, the Pac-12 is garbage at basketball this season.[​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Originally posted by The Rumblings of a Deranged Buffalo
    Click here to view the article.
     

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