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RPI Watch (Updated for 2/23 games)

I'm annoyed that the Pac has a reputation as a terrible conference this year. No doubt it is down, but I think that perception is driven by the fact there are no ELITE teams. No one from the Pac is any threat of winning the national championship this year, but if they committee were really interested in getting the 37 best at large teams, there would be 3 pac bids. No elite teams, but a number of teams that are definitely above average and capable of putting together a couple wins and going to the sweet 16.
 
torerobuff said:
I'm annoyed that the Pac has a reputation as a terrible conference this year. No doubt it is down, but I think that perception is driven by the fact there are no ELITE teams. No one from the Pac is any threat of winning the national championship this year, but if they committee were really interested in getting the 37 best at large teams, there would be 3 pac bids. No elite teams, but a number of teams that are definitely above average and capable of putting together a couple wins and going to the sweet 16.
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Welcome to the battle all Mid-Majors have.
 
Here was Lunardis braketology from Sunday:

ON THE BUBBLE


Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out



Last night, Texas lost a home game against Baylor.

Tonight:
Northwestern hosts #13 Michigan.
Seton Hall hosts #8 Georgetown.
Miami plays at Maryland. Go Terps! Fear the Turtle!
NC State hosts #7 North Carolina.
CSU hosts #21 New Mexico.

Wednesday:
UCF plays at Rice.
South Florida plays at #2 Syracuse.
St. Joseph's hosts Richmond.
VCU plays at ****** UNC Wilmington.
Minnesota hosts #6 Michigan.

Also on Wednesday, we have a bunch of winnable RPI games for other teams from our OOC schedule:

Wichita State plays at Illinois State (17-11).
Wyoming plays at #25 San Diego State.
Western Michigan hosts Ball State (13-12).
CS Bakersfield plays at NJIT (11-15).
Georgia plays at LSU (16-10).
Air Force hosts TCU (15-11).

Needless to say, it's a big couple days leading up to our Thursday game against Furd.
 
All of the bubble teams that play tonight have a significant chance of losing (NCstate is the only one I think could pull an upset)

Wednesday I think VCU UCF and maybe St Joseph's win.

A wyoming win would help our RPI correct?
 
rynobuff said:
Do we want CSU to win for the rpi boost or lose because they're also on the bubble?
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we need them to lose because we are directly competing for a bubble spot with them. They are 5-5 in conference right now and they have a good chance to go on a four game losing streak. They play New Mexico, @ San Diego State, UNLV and @Air Force.
 
Shldr2Shldr said:
All of the bubble teams that play tonight have a significant chance of losing (NCstate is the only one I think could pull an upset)

Wednesday I think VCU UCF and maybe St Joseph's win.

A wyoming win would help our RPI correct?
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I agree. And a Wyoming win would be huge. I don't worry too much about them as a bubble team. The committee's not going to give an at-large to someone outside the Big 6 that has a losing conference record.
 
If we win out that RPI will move to high 50's.

I think it depends on what they do in the Pac 12 tournament. If they can get to the championship game vs Washington I think they'll have a chance to get in.
 
I don't know if this is just a preventive measure from last year's disappointment or if I'm just a pessimist, but I'm fully operating under the assumption that the only way we go dancing is if we win the tournament and get the auto-bid.
 
RedDirtBuff said:
Hey! Are you callin' us a mid-major ??????



Put up your dukes, buddy!
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Haha not at all. It's just that I think the P12 will feel the effect of having a down year, by having the number of teams equal what the typical best mid major programs get in. Which is 2 or maybe even 1. When the conference plays out like it does this year, it puts a lot of extra burden on the 3,4, 5 and maybe even the 2nd place team to not only do well in the tournament but win to lock up the auto-bid. Worst example of this would be the MVC last year. Missouri State beats WSU by 1 game to win the MVC regular season, both teams are doing really well, and come tournament time, we lose early to Indiana State, and then MSU loses to Ind. State as well in the championship game, and not only does WSU end up in the NIT, but so does the regular season champion MSU. Indiana State goes to the dance is a one and done because they should have never been there. But I guess that's what makes college basketball so enjoyable from an outside looking in position. It's always heart breaking when you're on the inside looking out at all the travesties that happen to mid majors.

Goose said:
I don't know if this is just a preventive measure from last year's disappointment or if I'm just a pessimist, but I'm fully operating under the assumption that the only way we go dancing is if we win the tournament and get the auto-bid.
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I'd say that Goose is hitting the nail on the head here. It's super late in the season, and you guys have to have a ton of bubble teams just tank to get an at large IMO. Conference tourney or bust. I'm definitely rooting for you guys.
 
ShockerHoops said:
I'd say that Goose is hitting the nail on the head here. It's super late in the season, and you guys have to have a ton of bubble teams just tank to get an at large IMO. Conference tourney or bust. I'm definitely rooting for you guys.
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You just like us for the RPI boost. :thumbsup:
 
Shldr2Shldr said:
All of the bubble teams that play tonight have a significant chance of losing (NCstate is the only one I think could pull an upset)

Wednesday I think VCU UCF and maybe St Joseph's win.

A wyoming win would help our RPI correct?
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The good news is VCU, UCF and St. Joe's are as much of a long shot as we are at this point, and beating the UNC-Wilmington/Rice/Richmonds (Spiders are down this year) of the world will do as much for them as our win over Utah did for us.
 
JimmyBuff said:
If we win out that RPI will move to high 50's.

I think it depends on what they do in the Pac 12 tournament. If they can get to the championship game vs Washington I think they'll have a chance to get in.
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If we win out, our RPI would be in the 40s. You really want to be in the 30s to feel good about an at-large bid, though.
 
Buffnik said:
If we win out, our RPI would be in the 40s. You really want to be in the 30s to feel good about an at-large bid, though.
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This. A win over Stanford would get us well into the 60s (Oregon somehow moved up 10 spots after beating Stanford) and a win over Cal would get us into the upper 50s. And...you get the idea for what would continue to happen if we defeated Oregon and Oregon State on the road.
 
KSU just punched its ticket by winning at Mizzou.

UMass (RPI 88) just helped us out with a win against Xavier (RPI 53). I think Xavier is done.

Georgetown can eat a bag of dicks for getting blown out at Seton Hall. The Hall's in the dance if they don't screw it up now.

Ohio State destroyed Illinois. Illinois's #70 RPI just got worse, so we should be moving up a spot.
 
Maryland beats Miami

NC State loses to North Carolina

Michigan about to get the win at Northwestern in OT.

Unfortunately Mississippi State is up big on Kentucky at the half. Need UK to have a comeback
 
North Carolina took out NC State (RPI 60) for us.

Green Bay took out Cleveland State, who was 1 spot behind us in RPI.

Michigan took out Northwestern in OT.

Maryland took out Miami. :woot:

Edit: Nicely done, CVille.
 
tante said:
Sounds like this night is going great for us
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Definitely much more good than bad tonight

Good: Maryland over Miami, Kentucky over Mississippi State, North Carolina over NC State, Ohio State over Illinois, Michigan over Northwestern

Bad: Seton Hall over Georgetown, Kansas State over Missouri

For those keeping score at home, that's 5-2 in our favor.

Of the teams that lost tonight, Miami and Northwestern still have decent chances of getting in, but they're definitely on the outside looking in after tonight. NC State and Mississippi State are officially in deep trouble. Illinois is done -- they're not getting in, period. Of the teams that won, Kansas State sealed the deal tonight, they're getting in. Seton Hall took a major step in the right direction, but they've still got work to do.
 
Until last year, I didn't know what it felt like to be nervous and anxious during the last 2 weeks of college bball season.


This is one helluva roller coaster ride!
 
RedDirtBuff said:
Until last year, I didn't know what it felt like to be nervous and anxious during the last 2 weeks of college bball season.


This is one helluva roller coaster ride!
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It's a great feeling to have meaningful games in early March. Hopefully in a couple years we will be sweating out what seed we will get in the dance!
 
We're 72nd in the RPI as of the end of tonight.

Washington is 51st, so we'll be able to count our win over the Huskies as top 50 if they win at Wazzu on Thursday.
 
CVilleBuff said:
We're 72nd in the RPI as of the end of tonight.

Washington is 51st, so we'll be able to count our win over the Huskies as top 50 if they win at Wazzu on Thursday.
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Curious what would be better for us, a UW win to move them into the top 50 or a loss to allow us to potentially control our own destiny in terms of winning the Pac 12.
 
SuperD said:
Curious what would be better for us, a UW win to move them into the top 50 or a loss to allow us to potentially control our own destiny in terms of winning the Pac 12.
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I've been thinking about that. A loss would be best since winning this damn conference would do more for us than any numbers at this point IMO, but I guess you can look at it as if they win, there's at least a pretty nice positive that comes out of it.
 
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