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SI's Seth Davis on the Buffs to NCAA Tournament

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by GoldenBuff, Jan 20, 2011.

  1. GoldenBuff

    GoldenBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Some Highlights:


    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/seth_davis/01/19/mailbag.sleepers/1.html
     
  2. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    This Saturday is an absolute must, or we're going to have to go on a run of upsets that would be highly unlikely even for a top 25 team.
     
  3. Del

    Del Member

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    So your saying there's a chance
     
  4. Mick Ronson

    Mick Ronson Well-Known Member

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    note that while the question queries "total number of wins", Davis never mentions it. why? because all the talk about 20 wins doesn't matter.

    "Its nonconference strength of schedule is ranked 300th in the RPI."

    this. why i no longer buy season tix and this falls squarely at the feet of the AD IMO....and it jeopardizes the team's annual "destiny". scheduling should be about one thing.....oriented towards producing an RPI that gets you into the NCAA: which is to say, less than 45-50. right now, today, this minute, the CU AD should assign someone the task of 1. determining over the last 10 years what the net change for all Pac 10 teams RPI from the beginning of conference play to the end. 2. then, easily deduce what the necessary number at the end of OOC play is to have the net change put CU at 40. and 3. look at every team that has finished between 25-50 over the last decade and determine what the SOS RPI of all those teams are and do everything you can to approximate their schedules....not as "teams" but as numbers. for instance, how many RPI top 50, 100, 150 teams do you need to schedule and what ratio produces the net number you need at the beginning of conference play to coast in at 40 or less (or whatever SOS is needed for those teams).

    20 wins doesn't mean anything! there is nothing to lose by playing a legit OOC...you are more prepared to play real conference games and you aren't in a massive RPI hole. if you can't beat a steady slate of RPI 150 teams at about 70% rate you aren't going to make the NCAA anyway. people might even come to those games, too.


     
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2011
  5. dyemeduke

    dyemeduke Well-Known Member

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    I agree with these statements, but I was fine with the weak OOC this year. Not that the AD had the presience to do this, but with a new coaching staff, having a weak OOC could have helped.

    In general though, CU needs to schedule better games, but more importantly, they can't be losing to weak OOC teams like USF and Harvard...regardless though, CU still has a great shot at making the tourney. I also disagree with Gottlieb (who I often can't stand) on losing to Nebraska. NU is seriously a legit team this year, and that loss was not a bad one. NU will win other games and play their way into the NIT in my opinion, so that loss won't look so bad. Losing to OU and Tech...different story.
     
  6. Mick Ronson

    Mick Ronson Well-Known Member

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    Seth also notes the 2/12 home game against KSU. also that week, 2/9, CU hosts ATM. to make the NCAA, i think CU has to win both those games. much like the Tech and BU home stand in football ruined CU's football season, this is the make or break week.
     
  7. GoldenBuff

    GoldenBuff Club Member Club Member

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    As far as the non-conference goes, I think this year's schedule is left over from the Bzdelik era and that he had a lot to do with setting it up. Or at least that's what this blog entry from Ryan Thorburn had me believing a few months ago. I think next year's non-con schedule is going to be geared toward (hopefully) getting us back to the tourney. I have to think that Boyle will want to do things a little bit differently and that next year will be better.

     
  8. Mick Ronson

    Mick Ronson Well-Known Member

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    i hope that's true, but i've heard Dick Tharp, Ricardo Patton, Mike Bohn, et al swear up and down that the OOC will be revamped and improved and this and that over the last 15 years and the results are remarkably similar: crappy OOC that ill prepares the team for conference play, isn't interesting to casual fans, doesn't make money.
     
  9. RumblinBuff

    RumblinBuff That one blogging guy Club Member

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    North Carolina was on next year's schedule at one point. Anyone know if its still there?
     
  10. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Mick - great post on how we need to crack the RPI math with scheduling.

    As a rule of thumb, we can rock the RPI by getting some easy wins against teams that figure to win 20+ D1 games in those conferences that have their conference winners end up in the NCAA play-in game. We can also do well by scheduling programs that will be bottom feeders in the Big 6 conferences. Throw in some middle of the pack teams from conferences like the MAC, Big West and Missouri Valley. Don't schedule any D2 programs. Add in a good early season tournament and a couple feature games (one home & one roadie) and you have a schedule.

    Since the coach has a big hand in scheduling, I think we're in much better shape with Boyle than we were with Bzdelik. His background at Wichita State (Missouri Valley) and Northern Colorado (Big Sky) was in two conferences that have really emphasized the RPI math to benefit their programs. He should be well schooled in this.
     
  11. GoldenBuff

    GoldenBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Your early season tournament is already checked off. I don't know if this was already posted somewhere but we're going to be playing a tournament in Puerto Rico next year. Here's the field. There are some good teams in there so it should be an interesting one.

    http://www.puertoricotipoff.com/home/fields/2011-field
     
  12. Mick Ronson

    Mick Ronson Well-Known Member

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    check it out:

    COLORADO
    Nickname:
    Buffaloes
    Conference: Big 12
    Location: Boulder, Colo.
    2009-10 Record: 15-16
    Second-year coach Tad Boyle, who built the Northern Colorado program into Big Sky champions, continues to resurrect the Buffaloes. Boyle will have plenty of talent this season, including junior guard Alec Burks, who two years ago became CU’s first Big 12 Freshman of the Year, senior forward Austin Dufault and senior guard Nate Tomlinson, one of the Big 12’s leaders in assists-to-turnover ratio.

    right on! AB is coming back. :thumbsup::smile2:
     
  13. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Thanks, Golden.

    I can't remember whether it was posted here or not. I remember looking into it, though. My wife and I decided we are going to instead travel to the UCLA football road game that same weekend in the fall, but it looks like it's going to be a great tourney.
     
  14. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    I seem to remember that Bz tried to schedule home/aways with various teams around the country, and I think it was for recruiting exposure. Not saying it's right or wrong, just seems like that was the motive.

    Couple of things on the scheduling:

    1) I kinda like a couple of patsy games early in the OOC (and maybe 1 right before conference play). I see it as an advantage to integrate your new folks with the returnees in a real setting. The final "easy" game serves to polish all the things the team worked on leading up to conf play, and it would afford the starters a chance to sit early and catch a bit of rest.

    2) We have to start winning on a consistant basis to be able to schedule the "bottom-feeders" from other major conferences. Like it or not, with our past history, that's prolly the way we're perceived. Of course, I like Boyle's chances of changing this perception.
     
  15. Daaah

    Daaah Club Member Club Member

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    You also have to win when you play the crap teams. Losses like the one vs USF really really really hurt.
     
  16. chipwich

    chipwich Administrator Club Member Junta Member

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    You also have to let the players get used to the new coaching style. I think they blow USF out of the gym if they played today.
     
  17. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

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    I think the wichita state shockers should have a different mascot/logo:

    shock.JPG

    [​IMG]
     
  18. Scotch

    Scotch Registered User Club Member Junta Member

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    :nod: yup.
     
  19. GoBuffs!!

    GoBuffs!! Active Member

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    Lets also keep in mind our goals, this team hasnt played March basketball in many years. With a very stron OOC schedule we have the risk of not being a .500 team and not being able to go to the NIT or anything. If we have a very week OOC and we pad our record, we are ensuring that we are at least NIT eligble. As much as I could give a **** less about playing Coppin State, but I think this is still a good move. When we are consistantly looking at NIT/NCAA bids, we can start having very hard OOC schedules. Or at least bumping them up. But right now, why would someone want to play a weak Major in OOC play? They win, and who cares, they lose, and its a bad loss, it is not easy for Colorado to make OOC schedules at this point untill people start knowing more about Colorado Basketball. I do think Boyle is the guy to do that, but that is what has to happen first for you to get excited about the OOC schedules in the future.
     
  20. Mick Ronson

    Mick Ronson Well-Known Member

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    my perspective is from the position of being able to reasonably think about the post-season as an option...which has not been on the table since 05/06. everyone still plays some cupcakes, but not all teams have an RPI SOS of 300. we do. there are 299 teams that have played a "tougher" schedule than CU. confidence, new staff, whatever....299! this is a stat that we can control to some degree, and that requires that an objective and a method be in place. as it stands, it negatively impacts CU's chances for the post-season. identifying that as a problem moving forward isn't that controversial.

    it can be done better than we have done it in the past. even when Ricardo had teams that were in the running for the NCAA or NIT, our OOC was so pitiful that we were in the same spot we are today. we talked about making it better, but Tharp and RP had various motivations for continuing the status quo. look at the 04 and 06 teams that have been posted about many times over the last week, they had to win in the conference tournament to stay on the bubble....they lost (to Tech and ATM) and they were out. if those teams had an RPI in the 30's, they make the NCAA. Instead, they are in the mid 50's or even 60's I'd wager. Tech made the Sweet 16 in 04, ATM did as well (losing only on a buzzer beater to Big Baby and LSU)....losing to those teams does not *automatically* mean CU didn't belong in the NCAA. but, that's the situation the Buffs were in. one and out. no leeway.

    my "critique" is one based in our historical inability to address this....even an unwillingness to do so if only to pad wins as some of you advocate. well, if we are going to be for real...it's time to leave that babycakes, low expectations BS behind. when you act like a loser, think like a loser, loser is what you get. JMO.
     
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2011
  21. SECOBuffsFan

    SECOBuffsFan Active Member

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    Colorado gets in the NIT...that is a great way to get some extra games...make the NCAA's and it is frosting on the cake. For their first year under a new coach, making the post season is imparative for continued success
     
  22. Scotch

    Scotch Registered User Club Member Junta Member

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    Given how well they've done so far with the '11 recruiting class, if they can make the Dance this year then open up the practice facility in June, the '12 class could be a monster. They'd finally have some pretty good tangible results to sell recruits over the summer.
     
  23. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Especially if Burks stays. Boyle would have one hell of a story to tell.
     
  24. Scotch

    Scotch Registered User Club Member Junta Member

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    Yeah with Burks, and then DeAndre Daniels after he signs. :smile2:
     
  25. BuffaloChuck

    BuffaloChuck Member

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    I don't mind the wuss OOC schedule because the team needs to learn to play AND win together. Now, back from the OU game where I got to see the benefits to the players, though, I'm not sure the 'wuss factor' paid off against one of the worst teams in anyone's conference. There were a lot of "Play tough? Us? Why?" looks out there. 67-60. That's why. Well, this isn't the season at all, still a long time for those 10+ conference wins.
     

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