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So who do we beat?

'Tini said:
I was looking around last night for a sight that gave win probabilities that came from adjusted SOS, but the only site I could find that had them was a metric site that had us ranked a bit lower than last year, and I have a hard time taking that seriously because even though the W/L column doesn't show it. I went through and calculated it using those probabilities and it had a 55% chance of us going winless. We also have a 8% chance of beating Utah according to it, so I don't trust the metrics for it. So, I went and did the calculations for adjusted pythag win%, and the results were about the same, but I have a feeling they will change heavily as Utah comes back to earth. Same with UA. Anyway, it broke down like this:

TeamOffense PythagDefense PythagAdj Pythag Win%Adj PythagP(Win)
USC31.7419.340.7903.911.08%
UCLA43.3622.760.8484.27.72%
UW29.1523.390.6433.220.63%
UA31.6920.630.7593.812.94%
UO41.6721.820.8494.27.68%
UU33.8618.610.8324.28.64%
CU24.0031.900.3191.9

So I broke it into a probability model to see how many wins remaining fall on the chart below:

QWWRWOs.png


So...

0 Wins - 48.2%
1 Win - 37.4%
2 Wins - 12.1%
3 Wins - 2.1%
4 Wins - 0.2%
5 Wins - 0.01%

6 wins at this point isn't possible according to this. Everything should be right, but the probabilities may be off because I couldn't remember if the binomial distribution was the correct one for n events with different probabilities. If that's wrong let me know.
Click to expand...

You're a nerd.[emoji1]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
We will win all of them. We lost to all of the worst teams in the conference which means, logically, we will win against the much better teams in the conference
 
Watching replay of Utah and UCLA. Surprising. We can beat UCLA if we are on. Something missing with them despite huge amount of talent.

If They are on, will be tough. O line just not consistent though. Utah pretty good.....


Edit: I think Utah has a helluva DLine. Flat out jealous.
 
Last edited:
Eggon said:
Watching replay of Utah and UCLA. Surprising. We can beat UCLA if we are on. Something missing with them despite huge amount of talent.

If They are on, will be tough. O line just not consistent though. Utah pretty good.....


Edit: I think Utah has a helluva DLine. Flat out jealous.
Click to expand...

UCLA has looked extremely vulnerable in every one of their games this year except for the ASU one. While I didn't expect it to be against Utah, I'm not at all surprised it caught up with them.

Also, that running into the kicker call was a joke.
 
Utah and ASU lose their starting QBs and get better. Let's hope Wilson is back by the end of the year.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
'Tini said:
I was looking around last night for a sight that gave win probabilities that came from adjusted SOS, but the only site I could find that had them was a metric site that had us ranked a bit lower than last year, and I have a hard time taking that seriously because even though the W/L column doesn't show it. I went through and calculated it using those probabilities and it had a 55% chance of us going winless. We also have a 8% chance of beating Utah according to it, so I don't trust the metrics for it. So, I went and did the calculations for adjusted pythag win%, and the results were about the same, but I have a feeling they will change heavily as Utah comes back to earth. Same with UA. Anyway, it broke down like this:

TeamOffense PythagDefense PythagAdj Pythag Win%Adj PythagP(Win)
USC31.7419.340.7903.911.08%
UCLA43.3622.760.8484.27.72%
UW29.1523.390.6433.220.63%
UA31.6920.630.7593.812.94%
UO41.6721.820.8494.27.68%
UU33.8618.610.8324.28.64%
CU24.0031.900.3191.9

So I broke it into a probability model to see how many wins remaining fall on the chart below:

QWWRWOs.png


So...

0 Wins - 48.2%
1 Win - 37.4%
2 Wins - 12.1%
3 Wins - 2.1%
4 Wins - 0.2%
5 Wins - 0.01%

6 wins at this point isn't possible according to this. Everything should be right, but the probabilities may be off because I couldn't remember if the binomial distribution was the correct one for n events with different probabilities. If that's wrong let me know. We should expect about 1 more win using expected value as well.
Click to expand...

Great analysis... mad respect. I can't validate or dismiss your binomial distribution choice; however, for arguments sake, if CU beats USC next week that could result in CU's Pythag increasing and thus increasing the odds of beating the remaining opponents, correct? Ergo, you're saying there's a chance...
 
Utah always has a great d line, which keeps them in ball games. We're getting there, but we're not there yet.

I'm starting to think Washington is going to be our game, though I wouldn't put it past $C to come out and completely overlook our guys.
 
IowaBuffFan said:
Great analysis... mad respect. I can't validate or dismiss your binomial distribution choice; however, for arguments sake, if CU beats USC next week that could result in CU's Pythag increasing and thus increasing the odds of beating the remaining opponents, correct? Ergo, you're saying there's a chance...
Click to expand...
Correct. CU's pythag could also move up with a close loss because I used adjusted offense and defensive scoring. I'm going to keep this updated throughout the season and see how it changes.
 
I hope HCMM is stressing to the team this week how important it is to improve our pythag. Our pythag has been pathetic all season, if it doesn't improve I hope Mac has the balls to fire our pythag coach this off-season.
 
We break the Dan Hawkins Boise curse by beating his protege
 
Only team I care about beating right now is USC. We can't afford to look ahead. Have we ever beaten USC? I know we got close once when Markesha was here.
 
Worst Buff offensive performance I have ever seen was against USC in 2002. We couldn't do anything all game.
 
89BUFF89 said:
Worst Buff offensive performance I have ever seen was against USC in 2002. We couldn't do anything all game.
Click to expand...

I think another mention would be the Big 12 Championship in 2004. OU completely dominated, and Colorado didn't earn a non-penalty first down until the 3rd quarter. Lost 40-3, Klatt had 52 yards passing and Purify had 7 yards rushing.
 
Also, you don't want to know who I think we'll beat over the remainder of this year. Just like I predicted (correctly) that the Beavs would come in ready to play and win, so too will USC be ready to play on their home turf. This is no Embree team that will get blasted by USC, but the boys of troy will win comfortably.
 
Updated stuff with home field advantage factored in....

TeamP(Win)
USC9.40%
UCLA21.43%
Washington21.06%
Arizona12.16%
Oregon5.86%
Utah22.92%

WinsProbability
036.48%
140.06%
218.33%
34.47%
40.61%
50.04%
60.00%

sTpvSRT.png
 
Stop beating ourselves would be a start. You bastards know what I mean, don't jerk around with my post.
 
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