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The 2012-13 AllBuffs Men's Basketball Preview: Washington & Washington State

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by Goose, Nov 5, 2012.

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Will Washington finish in the top 6 of the Pac-12?

Poll closed Nov 11, 2012.
  1. Yes

    5 vote(s)
    38.5%
  2. No

    8 vote(s)
    61.5%
  1. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    In day 3 of our Pac-12 preview, we're going to the northern-most spot in the conference where we will look at the two Washington teams. Washington State returns one of the top players in the conference, but not much else, and Washington was in the horrible position of winning the conference regular season title but still not finding themselves with an invitation to the Big Dance last March.

    WASHINGTON
    Last Season: 24-11 (14-4), NIT.

    Who’s Back? It all starts with the backcourt that rivals Cal’s for “Best in the Pac-12”. You have to begin the discussion with CJ Wilcox. The strong shooting swingman put up 14.2 points and 3.4 rebounds per game last year while hitting 40.3% of his three pointers. Joining him is the biggest source of optimism for Husky fans in Abdul Gaddy. The senior PG finally started to reach some of his recruiting hype last year as he put up 8.1 points and 5.2 assists a game and provided strong leadership for UDub. They also get help from swingman Scott Suggs who put up 7.4 pionts and 1.9 rebounds a game in 2010-11 after taking a medical redshirt for a fractured foot last season. Along with those three, the Huskies will have some help off of the bench in redshirt freshman Andrew Andrews, who is a favorite of JGIsland and whose parents obviously didn’t like him judging by his name. The 6-foot-2 combo guard was the 2011 Oregon 5A co-player of the year and opted to redshirt last year after seeing all of the depth that the Huskies had in the backcourt. As for their frontcourt, they will be rolling out Aziz N’Diaye again this year. N’Diaye put up 7.8 points and 7.3 rebounds a game last year, and will be counted on for some more this season. He’ll be joined by 6-foot-7 sophomore Desmond Simmons. Ultimately, this season comes down to UW’s frontcourt. If those two can step up, Washington is a scary threat.

    Who’s Gone?
    The Huskies lost two first round picks in Terrence Ross and Tony Wroten. Both scored over 16 points a game and chipped in 5 or more rebounds as well every night and will be missed. While Ross was a phenomenal player, the loss of Wroten might be addition by subtraction. Incredibly talented, Wroten sometimes took the game over in a bad way at times. He tended to hog the ball and shut some of the other guys out. With him gone, the Huskies ball movement should be much better this season.

    Who’s New?
    The one new player they were to have this year was Mark McLaughlin, however he ultimately decided not to enroll at UDub, so the Huskies will not be adding any new faces this season.

    Best Case Scenario:
    Romar coaches the team up like we know he can, and their deep backcourt allows them to take advantage of teams who are still trying to fit new pieces in. The Huskies get out to a quick start and end up making up for last year’s snub as they go dancing.

    Worst Case Scenario:
    The lack of size inside just kills the Huskies. Their guards are swarmed all game and can’t get any separation due to the lack of an inside presence. Despite Romar’s ability, he can’t elevate the team above a CBI bid.

    JGIsland’s Stat You Should Know:
    Lorenzo Romar’s teams play fast. Last year they were 30th in Adjusted Tempo (23rd in 2011, 10th in 2010 and 7th in 2009). With the loss of Wroten to the NBA, Abdul Gaddy to is not the flashy player that they have had in the past manning the point. They hope that redshirt freshman Andrew Andrews will be that guy.

    PacHoops’ Take:
    Everyone loves a balanced team. If I told you I had a team with a two year starting point guard; a senior, seven foot, All Conference defender; a returning 14ppg slasher/sharp shooter; and a fifth year, two-time team captain who’s deadly from distance you’d say, “Adam, that’s pretty damn good team.” Well then why can’t anyone believe in this Washington squad? I just described the core of their team. Balanced like a Romney checkbook. To fill in those descriptions, that’s Abdul Gaddy, Aziz N’Diaye, CJ Wilcox, and Scott Suggs. Thing is that the Huskies have lost with more and I’m hesitant to call them good. But if any team could prove me wrong this year, it’s UW.

    Goose’s Pick:
    8th in Pac-12, NIT.

    Washington State
    Last Season: 19-18 (7-11), CBI.

    Who’s Back?
    One of the front runners for Pac-12 player of the year, Brock Motum. Motum isn’t flashy, but he’s damn good as he put up 18 points and 6.4 rebounds a game last season. As a reward for this, he was not only named to the All-Pac-12 first team, but he was given the Most Improved Player award. Scary thing is that along with his inside game, Motum also averaged almost one 3-pointer per game. His biggest help this season will be from wing DeVonte Lacy. Lacy hit 34.7% of his threes last year en route to putting up 8.5 points and 2.3 rebounds a game.

    Who’s Gone?
    The biggest loss the Cougars will face this year is senior PG Reggie Moore, who was dismissed this summer for a violation of team rules. Moore put up 10.2 points, 5.2 assists and 2.7 rebounds per game, and he will leave a big hole. They also lost guard Faisal Aden (14.5 points, 3.1 rebounds per game) who tore his ACL last January.

    Who’s New?
    They were hoping to have Demarquise Johnson this year. The exciting freshman would have helped WSU’s backcourt, but was declared academically ineligible by the NCAA this summer. The other two freshman coming in are forwards who both provide different things. Richard Longrus is a combo forward who is limited offensively, but is known for his defensive versatility and his rebounding. Brett Boese is a wing who put up 16 ppg in his senior year of HS in Spokane. The big question is what the Cougars can get from PG Royce Woolridge. The 6-foot-3 guard is elivible after transferring from Kansas where he put up 2.8 points and 0.6 assists a game in 2010-11. With Moore gone, many thing Woolridge will be the starting PG.

    Best Case Scenario:
    Motum enters beast mode and destroys all of the other big men in the Pac-12. Lacy fills the outside duties surprisingly well, and the Cougars are mentioned as a bubble team, but end up solidly in the NIT.

    Worst Case Scenario:
    Teams start quadruple teaming Motum and no one can make them pay. Their guards struggle to even get the ball past halfcourt most games, and they end up missing the postseason all together.

    JGIsland’s Stat You Should Know:
    For having the 18th tallest team measured by Effective Height (minutes played by height) the Cougars were awful on the offensive glass, ranking 223rd. With solid rebounder Motum back and freshman Richard Longrus expected to contribute right away, offensive rebounding will hopefully improve for Wazzu.

    PacHoops’ Take:
    I recently read a preview that said the Cougars will go “as far as Reggie Moore will take them.” That sucks cause he’s not on the team. Alas, this group, now short their three-year starting point guard, will go only as far as the Aussie will take them. Brock is really good people. There’s no two ways about it. Washington State is going to be pretty bad people. There’s no two ways about it. Ichabod had better bust out the coaching magic cause it’s going to be a long winter in Pullman.

    Goose’s Pick:
    10th in Pac-12, CBI.
     
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  2. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    Washington and Cal are the two teams that have caused me the most heartburn in my predictions. Both are talented, both are very well coached, but for some reason I'm having a hard time putting them any higher than I did. I honestly think that both of them are going to make me look very foolish this year, but right now I just can't put either of them any higher than I did.

    I fully expect Romar to make me eat crow.
     
  3. RumblinBuff

    RumblinBuff That one blogging guy Club Member

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    The way I look at it, all Washington did was get worse over the offseason, while much of the conference got better. You take the same team from last season, subtract their two best talents, and not add anybody... they will struggle.
     
  4. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    No question they lost their two best talents. But I think they could be better without Wroten, he played out of control, dominated the ball while not being very efficient and didn't play much D. Gaddy has to play better and get his turnover rate down and Suggs has to contribute but I kind of like UW this year.
     
  5. RumblinBuff

    RumblinBuff That one blogging guy Club Member

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    I'm not saying they're going to crater, just that they'll drop to middle of the table. If you expect teams like CU, USC, Stanford to make leaps forward this year, they have to move up at someone's expense. UW seems the most likely place (also, Oregon).

    Also, the Ewing Theory is a myth.
     
  6. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    Yup, I have them 7th with CU USC and Stanford leaping them. UW is in that 3-8 logjam.

    The Ewing Theory is a myth, but I am not sure that Wroten was one of their 5 best players last year. Arguments could be made that Wilsox, Ross, Gaddy, Gant and possibly even N'Diaye were more valuable than Wroten last year. Maybe I am crazy, but I see Wroten in the same light as Marburry, Iverson and Stevie Franchise. Fun to watch at times, will have some highlights but at the end of the day your team is better off without them.
     
  7. DesertDawg526

    DesertDawg526 Resident Dawg Club Member

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    I love Ross and Wroten. They're both gone.

    UW will add a healthy Suggs (SR), a highly-touted RS FR PG (Andrews) and will get back hopefully a healthy Wilcox (was not the same after his January injury last year).


    Andrews would likely have taken a lot of minutes from Wroten last year, but he redshirted instead. I would not discount his contribution as a RS freshman this year. He's not as flashy as Wroten, he can't penetrate as well as Wroten, but all reports seem to have him a better shooter with a better jumpshot, better ball-handling, better defense and better FTs... all important with guard play.


    Another way to look at it.... Washington did not lose nearly as much this past year as the year before. (Isaiah Thoma, Venoy Overton, Matthew Bryan-Amaning, Justin Holiday and Suggs for that matter vs. Ross & Wroten). Romar has lost guys to the NBA for years, and has replaced them for years. I can't even think of the last time Romar failed to send at least one player to the NBA. There was a recent post on Dawgman where somebody looked up the NBA guys from the PAC, and UW was basically tied with AZ and behind only UCLA in active NBA guys right now.

    Last year was probably the youngest squad Romar has ever had with 7 or 8 freshmen, and by far it had the worst team chemistry and team defense that UW has seen under Romar. It was easily the most frustrating season to watch as a fan for me, if only because it was so different than anything I've seen under Romar. I would be shocked to see a team as undisciplined or poor at defense again this year.

    UW goes from basically the youngest Pac squad last year to basically the most veteran squad this year. That's huge I think. Veteran guys are very important when it comes down to March...

    UW 2012-2013 should be better than last year. Even with the loss of two guys, UW will likely have one of the most talented backcourts in the conference again (Gaddy, Andrews, Suggs and Wilcox), and they have much more experience. But you can never really tell. Sure UW lost two first-rounders, who were drafted mostly on potential. Ross was a producer, but Wroten had not fully developed yet (not even close), so simply thinking UW lost two studs and must be worse is fool's thinking, at least IMO...

    Romar has the longest tenure of any Pac coach now and he has done very well at making UW competitive. They have won a share of the league title the past four years running. There were issues with 2011 and 2012 class balance and the 2013 class should help to restore it (why Andrews redshirted). But overall Romar has done nothing to expect a person to think UW will tank this year (I would consider finishing 6th or lower a "tank").

    Their FG percentage in Europe last month was much higher than last year's average. If UW can shoot in the mid 70s (FG) throughout the year instead of at 60% that will improve their ability to win tight games. Look for this to be one of their most improved areas that I can see. Guard play and FTs down the stretch should not be a liability again.

    Most importantly, and the biggest X factor (sorry if I missed it but I didn't see it posted)... UW has basically scrapped their traditional offense and is moving to a version of the UCLA high post offense. Brad Jackson was brought in from Western Washington University to run it (coming off a national championship) and to help smooth the transition to this offense. And UW also picked up Lamont Smith from ASU (they lost coach Chillious). These coaching changes and complete revamp of the offense are the biggest variables in trying to predict UW's season. I personally think anything short of a 20 win season would be disappointing, and any finish from 1-6 in the Pac would not be surprising. The preseason games will go a long way to sorting this out. I'm a big UW fan but the coaching changes and offensive change gives me very little with regard to what to expect. Lots of variables for UW. How quickly they sort them out will determine how well they do. I believe that their fate with regard to dancing will be decided in March sometime...

    What I expect is much better defense, improved chemistry and improved FTs at a minimum. I just dont' see a Romar team falling short of the Top 6 in the Pac at this point.

     
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  8. DesertDawg526

    DesertDawg526 Resident Dawg Club Member

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    FWIW... I can't fault a Washington pick anywhere from 1st through 8th.

    I'm truly excited to watch the season, especially in November and December. I hope all Pac teams beat up other teams that are dancing...
     
  9. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    Thanks for the insight DesertDawg. Why is Romer moving to this high post offense? He has been the king of the run and gun and Andrews seems like another PG in that UW mold that can push it up the court. Is this a fundamental shift or one more to plan into Gaddy and the teams strengths?
     
  10. DesertDawg526

    DesertDawg526 Resident Dawg Club Member

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    I actually think it's both. And I think despite Wroten's higher NBA upside, Andrews is a better fit for UW's system and will likely be a 10+ year NBA vet when all is said and done. An Isaiah Thomas - type fit, if you will. Last year's UW squad won the regular season title, and they were the worst team I've seen from Romar (and at the same time I think it was his best coaching job).

    I think it's also courting A.Gordon a bit... 20+ wins and I expect him to be a 'Dawg. Miss the dance two years in a row (a rarity under Romar) and I think he's gone. He's a perfect 4 and could play 1,2,3 or 4 years, whatever he decides... He's a lottery pick whenever he declares. His brother was mistreated by Howland and this is the recruit Romar must land to continue his legend... Add Nigel Williams-Goss to the mix (already committed) and UW is competing next year for the NC, especially if another top recruit signs.

    Brad Jackson could be the missing link to UW's O. I think this is the most intriguing offseason change with coaching. And Lamont Smith is a Top Recruiter... How will Shawn Kemp's son Kemp Jr perform? What role will J.Jarreau play. Will Breunig be the next Schrempf? Lot's of talented youth with no proven value. This is where the sophomore's will ultimately decide UW's fate. And will Desmond Simmons continue to be an enforcer along with ASJ? They have lots of big bodies that can give teams fits in the paint, with fouls to give.

    UW's D has not been the same since Cameron Dollar left.

    The Dollar/Mark Few Feud has been epic in the state of Washington. More on the background here.

    Romar is a UCLA alumni as well... Interesting times. I don't know the ins and outs of the shift, but I'm pleased to see Romar making changes. He is to UW what Boyle is to CU, 10 years later.

    Romar is a very underrated coach IMO. I've learned before not to judge him. Sole basis of my post in many ways...

    I'm switching to DISH if DirecTV doesn't come through with the Pac by January at any rate...
     
  11. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    And that's the main thing that caused me grief over my 8th place prediction. Monty is, IMO, the best X & O's coach in the conference, but Romar is in the grouping right behind him. And, like I said on twitter to Montlake Madness, even if I'm right and they come in 8th this year, it's going to be a temporary bump. With the recruiting class they are working on, they'll be back in the top 4 in the Pac rather quickly.
     
  12. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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  13. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    Coaches and programs do weird stuff all the time, like when Hawk used to let reporters into practice but not report on what they saw. But this is even better than that, UW is putting caps on the number of tweets credentialed media can have during a game. So, they are censoring a live event??

    Todd Dybas ‏@Todd_Dybas
    Also, tonight I was reprimanded by the University of Washington for tweeting too much during a live event.

    Todd Dybas ‏@Todd_Dybas

    The university has a cap on tweets and game-thread entries during live events, so expect less coverage going forward because of this policy.



    Todd Dybas ‏@Todd_Dybas This is a policy that applies to credentialed members of the media.

     
  14. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    Bump for this week's games.

    Washington started out slow, but is now playing some damn good ball. They have a great defense, and if CU plays D like they can (and O like they have), this game could resemble a B1G one.

    Washington State? Well, they're struggling. Potential pick-up for the Buffs to get a road win.
     
  15. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

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    CU needs to get the road sweep to get back in the PAC 12 race.
     
  16. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Washington is 3-0 in the Pac-12 with ALL 3 games being road wins (Wazzu, Cal, Stanford). They've seemingly turned the corner. Consistency still may prove to be an issue with them, but the Buffs better bring it on Wednesday if we want any shot of winning.
     
  17. jwhite17

    jwhite17 Member

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    Washington is playng much better, but they aren't as good as last year, and they have lost to Nevada and CSU at home, so they are very beatable there. I think CSU outrebounded them by 20 boards!

    I don't expect us to win the Wash game, but we MUST win at Wash State or finishing .500 or below is a very realistic possiblity. This team doesn't have the mental toughness to overcome a 1-5 start.
     

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