Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Recruiting Central' started by Darth Snow, Sep 6, 2012.
Ya, not gonna happen. We will be lucky to keep Dinwiddie for his junior year.
im sorry but that is absurd. Spencer would need to absolutely blow up to consider leaving after this year. His game is nowhere near NBA ready. I think he'll most likely be a 4 year player because he lacks the elite athleticism right now to play at the next level, that doesn't mean that I don't think he'll get a shot. I think he'll be Higgins 2.0 with better ball handling.
You obviously haven't been paying attention.
agreed, There are 30 NBA teams drafting a total of 60 players every year. Not saying he isn't good or won't make the NBA some day, but the odds are minuscule that we would have so many guys on our roster that go early: Burks, most likely Dre and now people are talking Josh Scott and Spencer going early.
I'll be the first to admit I'm biased here -- I'm a HUGE fan of the Mayor. That said, I know for a fact that there were NBA teams scouting him last season, and someone (I believe it was Thorburn) had an article last season that mentioned that they were more intrigued by Spencer than Dre. I also know that he has seriously worked on his game this summer. He's bigger. Honestly, watching him at practice was really an eye opener. I always thought that we'd probably get three years from him, but it wouldn't surprise me if we lose him this year. I think people are going to be pleasantly surprised watching him this year, and if he can show off the PG skills he displayed in high school -- with his much bigger frame -- he's going to be a lottery pick.
So now we have two lottery picks on our team? They have no excuses to not make a deep tourney run.
i sincerely hope that i am wrong. I did not attend any of the open practices so my statement is based on last year. I'm just excited to think that if Spencer makes that big of a leap, we should expect at least a repeat of last year with the current talent on this team.
based on last year, you would be right.
The Mayor will be here for his junior season.
Now I get to be a pessimist( I blame the football team) but didn't the oline look like they could block in practice too? <Insert Allen iverson video>.
Spencer would need to nearly double his point total from last year to really hit the draft lottery radar.
Bball is not to be tied to football. You have commited sacrilege.
I don't have a crystal ball. I have no idea whether or not the Mayor will be ready, willing, and able to jump to the league after this season.
What I find absolutely mind-numbing is this .....
just a few years ago, there's no way in Hades we would EVER be talking about the possibility of multiple CU players leaving early. Wow, just wow.
Let's look at the top guards from the 2012 NBA Draft:
Bradley Beal: #3 Pick
Stats: 14.8 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 2.2 apg, 2.1 tpg, 1.4 spg, 0.8 bpg, 34.2 mpg, .445 FG, .339 3PT, .769 FT
Dion Waters: #4 Pick
Stats: 12.6 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.3 tpg, 1.8 spg, 24.1 mpg, .476 FG, .363 3PT, .729 FT
Damian Lillard: #6 Pick
Stats: 24.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 4.0 apg, 2.3 tpg, 1.5 spg, 34.5 mpg, .467 FG, .409 3PT, .887 FT
Terrence Ross: #8 Pick
Stats: 16.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.4 apg, 2.0 tpg, 1.3 spg, 0.9 bpg, 31.1 mpg, .457 FG, .371 3PT, .774 FT
Austin Rivers: #10 Pick
Stats: 15.5 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.1 apg, 2.3 tpg, 1.0 spg, 29.2 mpg, .433 FG, .365 3PT, .658 FT
Stats: 10.0 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.4 tpg, 0.8 spg, 27.4 mpg, .402 FG, .438 3PT, .816 FT
No way he needs to double his output. A 40-50% bump in scoring and assists would show the productivity scouts want and then it all comes down to how they see his upside as an NBA player. Some of the best college stats guys don't get drafted.
Good point nik. I forgot the NBA is about potential and not production. What kind of numbers might we see from Spencer this year?
It's a weak draft for point guards next year, but Dinwiddie is going to have to improve his fg% from inside the arc to have a shot at being a first round pick. Has shown he has good range on his outside shot, and that might even get better. I don't view him as an elite athlete, and a lot of times that's why players go high and early in the draft process
I don't think his minutes will go up much, but he'll have the ball in his hands every possession. It's also likely that he won't be positioned as well for rebounds with running the point.
My best guess:
14 ppg, 3 rpg, 4 apg, 2 tpg and 1 spg with a nice bump to his overall FG% (45% range), a significant decline to 3pt% (40% range) and around 80% on FTs.
For reference, Nate averaged 3.0 apg last season with an offense that had less firepower and he's not as good of a player as Spencer... but Nate also had a best of 4.2 apg in the '09-'10 season so that's certainly attainable for Spencer this year.
I think that his numbers will go up simply because they are going to be so much more athletic this year and our pace will be faster, IE he will have more opportunities to score, rebound and dish out dimes. As Goose mentioned before, Dinwiddie has much more of a NBA game then Dre does. Dre is only 2 inches taller then Dinwiddie, but Dre will have to guard guys at least a couple of inches taller than him and many many more lbs than him.
All that being said, I still think Dinwiddie will be here for his Junior year and leave after that.
Is there any possibility that Dre stays for four years?
Always that chance, for various reasons. The safe money is on leaving after his Junior year, IMHO.
I really think Dre's a 1st round pick after this season. He's perfect for a veteran team that needs athleticism and an energy boost, but won't demand the ball since he'll do most of his work on the glass and the defensive end. Kind of like when the Pistons drafted Rodman back in the day. He'd be a great fit somewhere like San Antonio.
I also haven't seen any practices this year, so this is all based on last year, but I'd be really surprised if The Mayor goes pro next summer. As mentioned before, the NBA is all about potential, and they'd rather have a jump out of the gym physical talent than production. Spencer doesn't fit that mold. His advantage is his size at the point, but scouts haven't had a chance to see that yet either (they will this year, though). I just think he needs to prove a lot to earn a high enough draft slot to justify leaving after this year. In particular:
- Shot: As effective as his shot was last year, I felt like his release was a little slow and he doesn't get good lift on his jumper. His release is high enough to get away with that in college, but it will be tougher at the pro level. It would benefit him to continue to improve his mechanics.
- Strength/Finishing: These are related in many ways, as he'll have to overcome the lack of elite athleticism by utilizing his size advantage. He needs to add the strength to be able to absorb contact, create space, and finish at the rim.
- Defense: Part of this is related to his size, and the fact he lacks lateral quickness. But neither The Mayor or 'Ski was a great defender and, if Dinwiddie's going to be guarding NBA PG's, he needs to show the anticipation and quickness to stay in front of them.
Now, I don't think any of these are fatal flaws, and I do think he'll be an NBA player, but with the NBA putting such a premium on raw athleticism and upside, I just think he has more to overcome to be a two-year player. If he gets there this year, though, this should be a REALLY good year for Buff basketball!
Dre would be crazy not to leave after this year. I don't think his value goes anywhere but down if he stays for his senior year. It'd be through no fault of his own, but unfortunately that's how backwards NBA scouting is right now.
Edit: Sorry, thought you were talking about The Mayor, tante. I've been more skpetical of Dre's jumping to the NBA after this season than most. It really depends on how he's able to develop the mid range and longer range. To me, he has more than a season's worth of improvement to make in that department
Thanks for the input on both. You gonna make it to Colorado for a game this year?
This. I have a ticket for you CVille if you're out here at all.
I am thinking I may delay until basketball season to get out here, so it'll hopefully work out well. Admittedly, my personal schedule this fall (and our performance against CSU) has made me more inclined to aim for basketball. I'll look at the schedule and let you guys know what weekend I'm planning on. As an aside, I am planning to at least catch a couple days in Charleston, as well.
And we will expect a game recap from you. Buffs worldwide
He can go pro next year.
As a senior...
Hope to see a nice little solid core of Buff fans down there giving our guys a spark. None of the visiting teams are going to travel particularly well. It's still football season for Auburn, Boston College the most pathetic fan support in the ACC, Dayton Murray State and St. John's may bring a few diehards since they're basketball schools but it certainly won't be many, and **** Baylor.
FWIW, College of Charleston is like 70% female and 94% of those females are extremely hot. If that convinces any Buff fans to join the party..
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