This Week in BasketBuffs - 2/27/12

[Goose]

LAST WEEK

Men

74 50 CUBuffs.com link Daily Camera link Ralphie Report link Game Thread link

70 57 CUBuffs.com link Daily Camera link Ralphie Report link Game Thread link

Women

68 46 CUBuffs.com link Daily Camera link Game Thread link

64 43 CUBuffs.com link Daily Camera link Game Thread link

THIS WEEK

Men: Thursday, March 1st 8:30 PM Fox Sports Net Matthew Knight Arena Eugene, OR Women: Thursday, March 1st 6:30 PM ROOT Rocky Mountain Coors Event Center Boulder, CO

Colorado Offense Colorado Defense Oregon Offense Oregon Defense D1 Average eFG% 49.3% 46.5% 52.1% 48.7% 49.0% Turnover % 19.7% 18.5% 20.3% 19.0% 20.4% Off. Reb % 30.0% 27.6% 32.1% 31.6% 32.1% FTA/FGA 43.8 31.6 39.4 31.2 36.5

Men: Saturday, March 3rd 2:00 PM Fox Sports Net Gill Colisseum Corvallis, OR Women: Saturday, March 3rd 4:00 PM No TV Coors Event Center Boulder, CO

Colorado Offense Colorado Defense Oregon St. Offense Oregon St. Defense D1 Average eFG% 49.3% 46.5% 51.8% 51.2% 49.0% Turnover % 19.7% 18.5% 19.1% 23.5% 20.4% Off. Reb % 30.0% 27.6% 33.6% 34.2% 32.1% FTA/FGA 43.8 31.6 43.9 39.3 36.5

Seriously, in the craziness that is the PAC-12 this season, is there anyone who doubts that we're going to end with a four way tie for first place? Don't think it's possible? Think again. IF:

• CU sweeps the Oregon schools; AND
• Washington loses at USC and UCLA; AND
• Cal loses at Stanford; AND
• Arizona beats Arizona State

Then CU will tie for first with Washington, Cal and Arizona. If that happens by the way, your Colorado Golden Buffaloes will be PAC-12 champions due to the tie-breaker of head-to-head matchups (CU is 3-2, Cal & UDub are 2-2 and Arizona is 2-3). Seriously, it's the only logical ending to this season.

But even if the Buffs don't finish first, they have a lot to still play for this week. A loss to Oregon guarantees them the five (or six) seed. A win guarantees them a first round bye. So it's safe to say that CU vs Oregon will be the PAC-12 game of the week. I know a lot of people are saying that they want the five seed because it gives us a chance at an easy win over USC to pad our numbers a bit before playing Oregon -- which we will likely have to do no matter what. I'm not in that camp. Fisrt off, I'm still holding on to that 5-10% chance that we can win the PAC-12 tourney. Is it unlikely? Yes. But honestly, outside of the bottom three teams, can you completely rule out ANYONE from winning the tourney? Wazzu sucks, but they did beat both Cal and Stanford this season. Oregon State has wins over Cal & UCLA. Stanford has made us their bitch along with a win over UCLA.

Secondly, I don't want the five seed because it's not prestigous. I'm sorry, but in a year where we were picked to finish anywhere from 10th to 12th, we have a chance at a top four finish. Is there really any difference in between fourth and fifth? No. But saying "we had a first round bye in the conference tourney" just sounds better. I want that prestige. Plus, **** the Ducks. I want to prove that the win at the Keg wasn't a fluke and wasn't because of the officials (in a game in which both sides got jobbed horrendously at different points. Did Oregon get screwed on the last call? IMO, yes. But this wasn't a one way street).

So while the men seem to be ramping up for the post-season tournament, the women, well... I'm not sure what's going on there. The Stanford blow out was expected and, honestly, understandable. The Cal game though? What happened there? Lappe's squad is definitely heading the wrong direction right now. My question is, can they get it under control long enough to hold on to the NIT bid that so many of us assumed was a given? The future is still incredibly bright for the women's team. Jen Reese was really starting to come around before she got hurt. Lexy Kresl has been great. Arielle will be ready as a redshirt frosh next year and we have a damn good recruiting class coming in, so I'm excited. But I'm really hoping they can still make the WNIT to keep a little momentum going. Hopefully we can get some people out to the Keg on Thursday and Saturday (and I do want to point out that neither of those games interfere with the men's games, so hopefully the people on campus and in Boulder can head over and help out) and help lead the women to victory.

BTW, I worded the poll question that way so we don't get people saying "I voted no to the NIT because they're still going to the NCAA Tournament!" God bless the optimists of the world, and I hope you're right.

Offensive Efficiency Defensive Efficiency Pace Colorado 103.0 94.0 66.7 D1 Average 100.8 100.8 66.3

RPI SOS Men 84 103 Women 119 123

 

[Goose]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but the Buffs can still finish in the following seeds for the PAC-12 tourney:

#1 - Scenario above or if in the scenario above Arizona loses to ASU
#3 - Numerous scenarios, but most depend on CU winning both games
#4 - Numerous scenarios, but most depend on CU splitting Oregon trip, losing at Oregon
#5 - Numerous scenarios, but most depend on CU going 0-2
#6 - CU goes 0-2, UCLA goes 2-0

 

[jgisland]

KenPom has CU with a 32% chance to win at Oregon and a 37% chance to win at Oregon St. I am going to be very interested to see that Oregon St. spread, they are on a 5 came losing streak and KenPom has them favored by 4.

 

[tante]

lets start with this on thursday:

 

[Goose]

KenPom has CU with a 32% chance to win at Oregon and a 37% chance to win at Oregon St. I am going to be very interested to see that Oregon St. spread, they are on a 5 came losing streak and KenPom has them favored by 4.

Oregon State's numbers make them look like a good team.

Then you watch them play and you realize that they're not. OSU genuinely confuses the hell out of me.

 

[buffgal]

After watching the women's team lose 7 of their last 8 games and struggling to win at home, I don't see my Lady Buffs in any post-game tournament. This team has no one that can be counted on to score game in and game out. Jeffrey has the highest average, but she has had games when she has struggled to find the basket. She can't count on any of her team mates to help her. They make too many turnovers, usually at the most inopportune time of the game.

Losing Jen Reese hurts, more than Jen is in pain. Jen is a good rebounder and does score. While MPP scored 8 pts on Saturday, she hadn't scored any points the last three games and she badly missed two FTs. Seabrook isn't contributing much from the inside. Lappe looks to Seabrook & Hartig on the inside and neither one of them are hitting from inside. That means other teams push them outside and dare them to shoot. They shoot, but they don't score.

I like the feistiness of the Wilson twins, but they aren't exactly reliable scorers either.

 

[Goose]

I can say I'm honestly surprised by the poll results. I really thought it'd be closer to 50/50 if not in favor of making the tourney.

 

[Darth Snow]

 

[buffted]

 

[BeBe]

Interesting analysis by Brian Howell says that the chances are pretty good that the women make the WNIT so they can continue to play this season.
http://howell.pmpblogs.com/

 

[CVilleBuff]

Interesting analysis by Brian Howell says that the chances are pretty good that the women make the WNIT so they can continue to play this season.
http://howell.pmpblogs.com/

Had forgotten that the WNIT was at 64 teams these days, that makes me feel much better about our chances. A win over Utah in the First Round would almost certainly get the Buffs in. Even with a loss, 17-13 *should* be enough. Last year the Buffs finished 18-16, and lost in the WNIT Quarterfinals, so that means they went 3-1 in the WNIT and entered the WNIT at 15-15.

 

[buffgal]

A year ago, the team had upset Iowa State and Oklahoma in Big 12, so had some quality wins. Not a single quality win this season.

 

[Goose]

The extra practice time & experience would be huge for them though. Man, if Kyleesha Watson can come in and just run the point a little bit next year (asking any frosh to run it full-time is a bit unrealistic), with the experience we have coming back, we could be a tourney team.

 

[CVilleBuff]

A year ago, the team had upset Iowa State and Oklahoma in Big 12, so had some quality wins. Not a single quality win this season.

Still, as Howell suggests, the WNIT seems to be equally interested in which teams have the capability of filling some seats (both for who they draw, and subsequently choose to host some games). Do I think we deserve it with a loss to Utah? No. Do I think we still probably get in in that scenario? Yes. A 64 team WNIT means there are a lot of very mediocre teams filling up the final two dozen spots, to say the least