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Utah AD been contacted by Pac 10?

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by Sportsfan101, Apr 22, 2010.

  1. Sportsfan101

    Sportsfan101 Active Member

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    http://espn.go.com/blog/pac10/post/_/id/9436/pac-10-contact-utah-ad-turns-vague

    I'm hopeful that Utah has been contacted -- my concern all along has been that Utah isn't a viable enough candidate with Colorado to ensure Pac 10 expansion. Given the way things are moving, though, I'm more optimistic now than ever that CU will be Pac 10 within 2 years. It seems like it's now a given that Big 10 is going to expand beyond 12, which will require the SEC, ACC and Pac 10 to try to keep up. I think the whole expansion fallout could be extremely damaging to the Big East (buh-bye) and the Big 12 to a lesser extent.
     
    Sexton Hardcastle likes this.
  2. Sportsfan101

    Sportsfan101 Active Member

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    Just went over to Utefans.net and noticed the following post that I think contains a lot of good stuff on why the Pac 10 needs to expand:


    First off, Colin Cowherd saying "Utah is a done deal" doesn't carry much weight with me, and it doesn't really tell us anything we don't already know. IF the Pac-10 elects to expand, then yes, Utah is a virtual lock, and that's probably exactly what Cowherd's sources are telling him. All of this is contingent upon the Pac-10's decision to expand or not, and I highly doubt that decision has been made.

    Personally, I think the Pac-10 will expand . . . at some point. There's simply too much external pressure--particularly if the Big Ten goes to 12 teams (or more).

    There's also the looming threat of the MWC. As Comrade Crimson has rightly pointed out, if left intact, the MWC is on pace to capture an automatic BCS bid after the 2012 season. This is problematic for the Pac-10 for two reasons:

    1) More competition for recruits and TV dollars.
    2) Makes future expansion more difficult.

    As it stands, the Pac-10 can snap its fingers and Utah is theirs. But that might not be the case three years from now. If the MWC is given BCS-status, then there's far less incentive for Utah to entertain an offer from the Pac-10, and far less incentive for the state legislature to allow a move without BYU.

    Essentially, if the Pac-10 elects NOT to expand, it may not have the choice again later on. Larry Scott won't admit it, but there's A LOT more to consider here than just increasing per-school revenue.

    That said, I don't buy into the speculation that an announcement is forthcoming this year. I'm not saying it won't happen. I just think it's far more likely to happen in 2011 or 2012.

    But I could be wrong. When I hear Dr. Chris Hill uncharacteristically issue a non-denial when asked to comment on Pac-10 expansion rumors, I tend to think that maybe they're more than rumors .. .
     
  3. Mick Ronson

    Mick Ronson Well-Known Member

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    the last couple sentences (of the ESPN article) seem to make a Utah-CU sound like it would have obstacles. not sure i come away from the article with optimism, per se. i'd be more optimistic if CU and Mike Bohn were mentioned.
     
  4. Buffarino

    Buffarino Math - how does it work? Club Member

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    BYU is a non-starter in the Pac 10, which might kill Utah's chances, but it shouldn't affect CU's, IMO.
     
  5. Clean Undies

    Clean Undies Flagship of the 12-Pac Club Member

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    The arguement where the "MWC might be a BCS conference" someday makes no sense.

    Giving BCS status to the MWC is not going to magically increase the number of eyeballs watching MWC football games.

    If Utah wants to be seen in Los Angeles, they'd be better off moving to the PAC 10 and playing USC/UCLA.

    There's no way the lucrative California TV market is going to magically become more interested in Utah-Colorado State just because of the letters BCS.
     
  6. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

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    Agreed. Making the MWC a BCS conference will make very little difference. CU is in a BCS conference, and we're (supposedly) considering the move.
     
  7. Clean Undies

    Clean Undies Flagship of the 12-Pac Club Member

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    And aside from a few hard core football fans, hardly any television viewers in the major B12 markets really care about watching CU.

    During the Hawkins era, CU has been the welfare mother of the big 12. CU is benefiting from conference revenue sharing and gets some gravy courtesy of bowl bound conference foes, while giving back very little in return other than scoffs. CU makes the whole conference look weak with nationally televised losses against supposedly inferior teams from minor conferences.

    I doubt many schools in the b12 will miss CU, should they part ways.
     
  8. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

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    I disagree. CU, until this year anyway, played on TV a lot, which provided a good amount of revenue to the conference. The basketball program is coming around, and will probably contribute to the revenues of the conference this year. We have a top 5 cross country team as well. Revenue wise, we hold our own in this conference. We're down on ourselves right now because our football team stinks on ice, but it wasn't always that way, and it won't always be that way, either.
     
  9. Clean Undies

    Clean Undies Flagship of the 12-Pac Club Member

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    When CU plays an OOC game that is nationally televised, does that revenue really get shared the same as bowl revenue?
     
  10. Hugegroove

    Hugegroove Club Member Club Member

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    I think that depends on whose the home team?
     
  11. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    Does the pacten have ski teams?
     
  12. OKCBuff

    OKCBuff Well-Known Member

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    And I disagree. The Big 12 South fans barely know Colorado exists anymore. No one says a word to me when I wear my stuff around town. The general consensus from what I've heard is, "Good, let them move. Then we'll grab TCU or someone."

    Very sad how bad the perception of CU football is right now. :(
     
  13. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

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    The 12-Pac will have two.... :thumbsup:
     
  14. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

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    I don't give two sh!ts about what the good people in soonerville think about the Buffs. That wasn't my point. My point is that CU does contribute to the finances of the conference. Regardless of how much our team sucks, we still get on TV a lot (why, I have no idea. Maybe it's to see the train wreck). In any case, teams that get on TV a lot, even when they lose, generate revenue. The original premise was that the Big 12 wouldn't miss CU. I don't think that's the case at all. TCU might be better from a competitive standpoint, but they don't drive the same number of viewers. Not even close. TCU wouldn't add one single TV to the footprint of the Big 12.
     
  15. Clean Undies

    Clean Undies Flagship of the 12-Pac Club Member

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    I disagree. The story goes that DFW is a saturated market stuffed full of Sooners, Longhorns and Tech fans. But this opinion discounts the rabid homerism of Ft. Worth. I seriously doubt many on this board have ever seen the TCU-SMU cross town rivalry, nor have ever witnessed Ft Worth dress up Camp Bowie and downtown in purple in support of their frogs.
     
  16. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Huh. I don't think you are understanding. It still won't get any more TVs, and it will definitely hurt national ratings.
     
  17. Clean Undies

    Clean Undies Flagship of the 12-Pac Club Member

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    I think you overestimate the importance of the 25th largest media market and underestimate the nation's 4th largest.

    The college football fans in DFW are a wee bit more rabid than those in Denver, and there's a better product that DFW puts on the field.
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2010
  18. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

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    If you're referring to Denver, I believe it's the 14th largest media market, not the 25th. But I digress. The point is that every TV in the Dallas/Ft Worth area is already in the Big 12 footprint. Everybody who is a cable/satellite subscriber in that area is already counted as being in the Big 12 broadcast area. They may get a few more viewers from that market to watch games that TCU is playing, but there won't be any more TV sets added to the footprint. I won't argue that the folks in DFW are less rabid about college football than those in Denver. I know better.
     
  19. Idot Buff

    Idot Buff Club Member Club Member

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    I agree. And don't forget the damn Aggies....count me in as one on this Board who has witnessed what you describe.
     
  20. Clean Undies

    Clean Undies Flagship of the 12-Pac Club Member

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    The issue here is that Colorado does not recruit in B12 country. The relationship between Texas and Colorado ranges from disinterested to negative. When CU does not fill it's roster with the best athletes from Big 12 country, the relationship suffers. The B12 allegence isn't strong enough to replace the personal connection that comes with a Mason Crosby or Terrence Wheatly turning heads.

    Colorado and the Denver market turn their collective noses up on all things mid-west and especially all things Texas. The psuedo scandal of the Barnett era combined with the ineptitude of Hawkins era added to the inability to recruit has basically made CU irrelevent in the Big 12. Who in their right minds, outside of a few hard core fans, are going to tune in Colorado football in DFW? The murder of Ft. Worth native Darrant Williams added just an other black mark on Denver's reputation.

    In Denver, there are enough Nebraska fans and transplants from Big 8 Country and from Texas who are football fans that hold on to out of state allegiences. Even without CU in the Big 12, the Denver market will continue to draw viewers. The Big 12 won't lose that much at because CU isn't loved and worshipped in Denver the same way programs are loved eleswhere in the Big 12. The impact of the CU market on television sets can be measured by The.MTN network. Enough said.

    TCU, on the other hand, is loved by Ft. Worth. Although the student population of TCU is 70% smaller than CU, the attendence at TCU games is only 18% less against a steady diet of crappy MWC diet of every team not named BYU or Utah...MWC schools that aren't exactly hot TV properties. Now imagine what would happen if TCU were to join the B12. Amon Carter stadium would need an expansion because it would sell out against virtually every B12 opponent. There are plenty of transplants from NE, KS, MO and OK who have escaped the harsh realities of the Midwest to benefit from the economic opportunities of Dallas. All these transplants in the metroplex would tune in to a TCU-KU game, where they might tune out when the Longhorns or Sooners play. TCU recruits DFW highschools very strongly and TCU turns that local talent into nationally ranked winners. A strong local bond convert passionate friday night fans into more Saturday afternoon TV viewers.

    Now for the numbers.
    Denver is the nation's 18th largest TV market with a value of $261M with NCAA viewers who will still tune in to watch top 25 teams compete. How much will the B12 value shrink by dropping a bottom feeder with limited local passion, a bare minimum of sports, and light weight boosters? Plus Denver isn't growing as fast as DFW and keeps losing corporate jobs. Let's assume NCAA revenue accounts for 0.5% of Denver's market value, and that 25% of those viewers would stop watching B12 broadcasts if CU left. Value of CU to B12 $261x0.05x0.25=$330K

    DFW is the nation's 4th largest with a value of $484M, has survived the economic downturn better than most cities by attracting business, has better FB talent, better facilities, and a captive TV audience who is not tempted by out door recreational activities. Assume NCAA programming represents 0.51% of DFW's revenue and TCU would draw 1% more viewers than a CU broadcast. The value of adding TCU is $484x0.51%x1.01=$2.5M.

    Plus factor in the value of the national market. Which program has a higher probability of fielding a top 25 ranked team, TCU or CU? If the answer is TCU, then the value of TCU only increases from there.

    I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but the CU community needs to rally and become competitive. This means the CUAD and admin actually showing a commitment to winning, and the state of Colorado actually embrasing their football team and strengthening football culture. Right now CU's getting out gunned by private schools that are much smaller. And the trends don't look all that good.


    Source of media $$& values:http://adamschreck.wordpress.com/2010/01/18/top-50-tv-markets-ranked-by-2009-revenue-bia/


    The team has made a habit of squandering it's opportunities when games have been picked up nationally.
     
  21. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    you still don't get it. DFW is already covered. The Big12 would get miniscule value from adding TCU. Miniscule.
     
  22. Clean Undies

    Clean Undies Flagship of the 12-Pac Club Member

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    You are clearly a polyanna attorney in training, and not a business analyst.

    The point is that the Denver market will continue to watch B12 teams with or without CU.
     
  23. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Ok. You are clearly an idot who has a hardon for TCU. However, "still watch" doesn't really matter. The point is that TCU still adds nothing to the Big 12. Losing CU will still hurt the Big 12 in television negotiations. At the BEST, adding a school to TCU it won't help. It will just further the idea that the Big 12 is now basically the SWC with nebraska replacing Arkansas.

    Disagree with this statement: TCU adds next to nothing in value to the Big 12 television market. Especially to combat the loss from losing colorado or mizzou.
     
  24. leftybuff

    leftybuff Iconoclast Club Member

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    I agree with Skiddy here. I know folks in DFW. I lived in TX, I know a member of a Bowl Committee of a bowl played in TX, TCU has more pull market wise, politically and fanbase wise than they are given credit for, TCU will be at the top of the B12 list to replace a departing team, no matter who it is.
     
  25. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    I don't disagree with your statement. Skiddy seems to be arguing something else.
     
  26. Clean Undies

    Clean Undies Flagship of the 12-Pac Club Member

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    I like watching a good college football game. I don't have a hard on for TCU. But I'll hit one of their games next year if it doesn't conflict w/ a televised CU game.

    I'm merely pointing out that advertisers spend money on what viewers watch. And I don't think you understand the DFW market well enough to provide a well informed opinion.
     
  27. leftybuff

    leftybuff Iconoclast Club Member

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    I guess I'm missing the point then, but it wouldn't be the first time...
     
  28. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    OK. If TCU is so great, why was it left behind when the SWC merged with the Big 12? and why do you continually ignore the fact that the DFW footprint is already covered TV wise? And wouldn't the TCU addition, while helping add to ratings in the DFW area, hurt the ratings elsewhere where people don't give a **** which texas school is playing?

    I acknowledge that you apparently know a lot about the DFW area, but this discussion is about far more than the effects in the DFW area. You are staring at a tree and missing the forest.
     
  29. 92Buff

    92Buff Well-Known Member

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    I also have to believe there is some inherent value of expanding tv sets in DFW. I would not assume that they are all already tuned in - no numbers to back up but a hunch. I also would have to give some creedence to the fact that that a significant percentage of the viewers in Denver are transplants with other Big XII loyalties.

    As for our contributions to the Big XII, in addition to the items others have listed - we have contributed a large number of easy victories for the rest of the conference to enjoy. Don't underestimate how much they have appreciated our selflessness over the past years. :thumbsup:
     
  30. Clean Undies

    Clean Undies Flagship of the 12-Pac Club Member

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    It's quite simple, Master Snow.
    1) Ann Richards, fmr TX Governor had more ties to Baylor than TCU
    2) Demographic changes. The DFW area has grown by a whopping 24% in the past decade, and has eclipsed Philly as #4 in the process
    3) The growth is a factor of high tech, manufacturing, energy, and financial services. The labor force includes a heavy dose of transplants. During that time, the % of A&M/UT/OU alum has shrunk proportunately against the population of the metroplex. As stated earlier, many new arrivals come from KS, MO, OK, and Big 10 country.
    4) DFW does not have any major tier 1 universities. There is TCU, SMU, North Texas, and UT-Arlington. 2 are Christian based private schools with D1 football teams, the other 2 are state schools with only UNT fielding an up and coming program. All four schools have benefitted from the population growth paired with the distance from B12 campuses. Austin is a whole different world than DFW, as is Norman & College Station. It's getting harder and harder to get into UT/A&M with the state's population growth. The cost of OOS education is making private TCU & SMU more viable, and kids want to stay close to home.
    5) SMU's death penalty shifted focus to TCU. TCU's alum LaDanian Tomlinson put the frogs on the map. Getting the a Bowl Game in Ft Worth helped. Upsetting OU in Norman didn't hurt, and the abundance of local talent has just made things snowball.

    It's a different world now, versus where the B12 was in the mid '90s.

    I hope this helps you pull your head out and smell the coffee.
     

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