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What is this team's potential post-Spencer?

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by Buffnik, Feb 16, 2014.

  1. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Looking at the stats, shooting percentages and points are right where they were before. Assists are way up. FT shooting remains right around 70%. The offense hasn't gotten worse and may actually be getting better despite losing the best ball handler, 3pt shooter, foul shooter and foul drawer on the roster. Amazing.

    Sure, there's a good argument to be made that this is just the natural progression of a young team and, if Spencer was there, we'd have an absolute juggernaut. And that may be true.

    But the point I'm making is that the team has adjusted on offense. They're moving the ball well and taking good shots.

    As we saw against UCLA, though, where this team is missing Spencer the most is on defense. With as good as the guards are in the Pac-12, I'm not sure we fully appreciated having a guy at guard who was a near shutdown defender when he drew a big assignment. For example, Arizona's Nick Johnson was always held in check by Spencer when they matched up. That's missing right now.

    Maybe tonight was a sign that the defense is coming around too, though. The competition makes it an asterisk performance, but the Buffs defended the perimeter well and held USC under 40% shooting for the game (about 32% in the 2nd half). If they can keep playing offense like they have lately and also have the defense come together, we're going to need to raise our expectations again. Especially with Fletch likely to come back this week and Wes getting himself healthy.

    The potential of winning the Pac-12 tourney is still there. The potential of advancing past the 1st weekend of the Dance is still there.

    We need to get our asses in the stands on Wednesday night for that 9pm tipoff and support this team. Beating ASU would validate so much of what is starting to happen and position the Buffs for the finish they need. Fans need to do our part to give the best possible home court advantage.
     
  2. rolandftw

    rolandftw Club Member Club Member

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    I still can't get a good read on the team. Wouldn't be shocked to see them finish 3rd in the Conference. Or 7th. Team has clearly adjusted tho, and are much better now then they were 4 weeks ago. Talton and Hopkins have both improved and fit into a role that matches both players at this time. Scott and XJ are taking on more leadership responsibility and carrying a lot of the offense.

    Askia is my MVP. Almost uncanny to think how quickly he has fit into a new role. 17 ppg, 6 assists and 45% from the field.

    Disappointing that Dustin Thomas and George King have a ways to go before CU can really count on them to log a lot of minutes. Hopefully, Fletcher comes back this week and it adds more depth to the rotation.

    I think the ceiling is much lower without Dinwiddie, but definitely can see the Buffs making the tournament and maybe winning a game.
     
  3. NBDefektor

    NBDefektor Well-Known Member

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    I don't know if it's just me, but when I watch our guys play in a game like tonight's, it feels like we're hanging on by a thread--and that's even when we're winning by 10-14 points. Ski has done wonders keeping our guys composed, but at times I feel even Ski starts to lose it a bit. We depend a lot on the long ball it seems, and the only guy I honestly trust to make an open three after Ski penetrates is Xavier Talton.

    Don't get me wrong, I am impressed with the way we have overcome the adversity of losing our best player, I just feel like it'd be almost miraculous to win the conference tourney, and I would not be totally surprised if we lost our remaining 5 games. I honestly think we'll win the ASU game and split the NorCal trip, meaning we'll probably need a win in the conf. tourney to have a shot at the big dance...
     
  4. FightCu1414

    FightCu1414 Fifth year Senior Club Member

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    So 2-3 rest of the way?
     
  5. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Best case is beating the Arizona schools, Utah, 1 of Cal/Stanford, getting a top 4 bye and making the semifinal of the P12 tourney and winning a Big Dance game as a 7 or 8 seed.

    More likely is 2 more regular season wins, beating USC or Wazzu and then losing in the quarterfinal, making the Dance as a 10 or 11 and going one and done.
     
  6. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    In your scenario we'd have added a win over 29 ASU and a Cal or Stanford road win (both in the 40s). 2 more RPI top 50 wins and no bad losses does not leave us needing to do damage in Vegas to even "have a shot" at the Dance. If you're implying we don't get a bye, then yes we would need to beat USC or Wazzu to avoid making things a little dicey. Maybe it's just your wording, but with tonight's win we'll likely go an entire regular season without a sub 100 loss (Utah is likely to remain top 100 if we lose in SLC). It can't be understated how huge that is. No bubble team can match that.
     
  7. DBT

    DBT Club Member Club Member

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    XJ is starting to look like he's going to be a star. XT has, all of a sudden, gained a ton of confidence. This team has a lot of potential. Need our bigs to improve outside of Scott.
     
  8. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

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    If only Spencer was down with a high ankle sprain or something. Would have allowed this growth by the team and allow spencer to come back before post season play... We would crush everything in our path.

    I have a feeling we could pull the sweep this week. Our defense at home against the Washington schools and Utah was lockdown. We play much better at home and I know they will be hyped for the UA game, which is why I am glad we have ASU first. Possibly have Fletcher back which will be a huge boost as well, we will finally be getting some of our depth back.
     
  9. SECOBuffsFan

    SECOBuffsFan Active Member

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    I think we get 2 more wins to get to 21-10 regular season

    Win 2 games in the Pac 12 Tournament - 23-11

    Win 1 game in NCAA - 24-12
     
  10. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    This year? limited. Next year? hehehehee.
     
  11. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

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    I am constantly fighting the feeling of hope that Spencer might come back. I just... It might be the most exciting sports season in the history of Colorado athletics outside of the 1990 football season.
     
  12. cubuffs85

    cubuffs85 Active Member

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    Ceiling=cutting down the nets in Dallas
     
  13. Colobuffs21

    Colobuffs21 Club Member Club Member

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    How would our scholarship numbers play out if Spencer comes back?
     
  14. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

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    We have a free one as it stands right now I believe.
     
  15. BuffsNYC

    BuffsNYC Uptown Club Member

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    We miss Spencer in crunch time, we will lose some tight games because he's not there. It was pretty easy to get Spencer the ball at the end of games and watch him knock down his free throws. Last night? Cluster**** at the end.
     
  16. cubuffs85

    cubuffs85 Active Member

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    I don't like how they finished last night, but I wasn't too concerned and I don't think this will have much bearing the rest of the team. If it was a closer game, I would've expected the Buffs to be playing to the score more.
     
  17. BIGEZ321

    BIGEZ321 Active Member

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    And the refs being absolutely horrible in the last 3 minutes. If Buffs can get 3 wins in the next 5 games, I think the ticket is punched, and potential reached.
     
  18. cubuffs85

    cubuffs85 Active Member

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    Three would be a lock IMO. Two should do it, especially if one of those is on the road. They have no potential "bad losses" left, USC was that. ASU might be the only one closely resembling that since CU is the home team.

    The way I see us missing out with two is if we don't get a bye and then lose our first round matchup.
     
  19. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

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    ASU I think is our last chance for a "Bad Loss" IMO, not RPI based at all because they are high enough it doesn't really matter, but because we are the home team.

    Seeding is going to be tight coming down the stretch. Assuming we beat ASU, UCLA could do us a huge favor by beating Cal Wednesday night.

    Luckily Cal has a pretty rough schedule coming down the stretch. Home against the LA schools, away at the Arizona schools, home against the mountain schools.

    ASU doesn't have it easy either. Away at the mountain schools, Home against the Nor Cal schools, Away at the Oregon schools.

    If we can sweep at home this week, that sets us up very well as we head down the stretch. Crucial couple of games coming up. However a 5th seed would not be awful. We would get the matchup vs USC, and assuming standings stay the same, a quarterfinal matchup vs Cal. Would have to play zona in the semi's.
     
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2014
  20. Lt.Col.FrankSlade

    Lt.Col.FrankSlade Well-Known Member

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    Miss Spencer most for his free throws. Ski is much more explosive with the ball in his hands.
     
  21. JPinCO

    JPinCO VP of Quantified Self Club Member

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    Potential? Final Four / National Championship Game. Did anyone predict Butler rolling through Syracuse, KSU, MSU on their way to a title game in 2010? Did they have better talent then than CU does now? The best team they beat prior to the tournament was #13 OSU.

    Of course I'm totally being facetious, but all it takes is a decent team + high energy players + one 'hot' player + a good coach to make a run. We have all those components, and I do think they are starting to gel post-Spencer. And Ski is looking like he can out 17+ on any team. And XJ, Scott & even Talton are putting up numbers.

    Now realistically, I believe that they're 50/50 for a first round win depending on the draw, and that's it. But there's enough to like about this team to not count them out for something freaky. In other words, why not us? :thumbsup:
     
  22. cubuffs85

    cubuffs85 Active Member

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    Agreed we're in a pretty good position if we head into Utah/Bay Area schools having won the last three games and six of the last seven.

    Only game that I think MIGHT not be crucial is if we go 4-0, I think we'll have already stamped our ticket to the Dance and losing to Cal in the final might not be so bad, even though we're all going to want to win the game. And odds are we don't run the tables until then. I think in some ways USC was our most crucial game because if we lost it would've been by far the biggest stain on our record. Now that's not to say we can go 0-5 from here on out, in fact, we need to go 3-2 to be a lock IMO, but there's no single game where if we lose we're in trouble IMO (that could change of course).
     
  23. buffaholic

    buffaholic Club Member Club Member

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    Watching how Lil' X has really been stepping up is a good reminder to us that some of Tad's recruits don't have quite the pre-College experience as some others.
    Scott has really matured in year 2 as well.

    Gordon, King and Thomas just didn't get the several years of high level competition that a guy like Collier has gotten in the national tournaments. We will have to be more patient with them for sure. I think we need each of those 3 to take the same kind of steps up next year and we can be pretty dangerous.

    Askia has blossomed and is now a joy to watch.
     
  24. SECOBuffsFan

    SECOBuffsFan Active Member

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    Great point...I also think that this staff is really good in player development and getting their players to grow...especially from year 1 to year 2....as sophomores DT, J-Hop, King and Fletcher should be day and night better
     
  25. MSBuff

    MSBuff Well-Known Member

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    I was yelling at the TV about that. PAC12 refs seem to be
    weak.
     
    BIGEZ321 likes this.
  26. Eggon

    Eggon Club Member Club Member

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    The progress of this team from the first game back post SD injury is really impressive. Solid coaching no doubt, but also good talent choices as well. Unique.

    They are elevating at the right time. If peeps and other youngsters can continue this current progression, you really would not want to play CU come tourney time. We have yet to see the finished product that will be there come dance time IMHO.
     
  27. wyobuff

    wyobuff Well-Known Member

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    After this week's split, I think we are in pretty good shape. Though we've got an outside shot to the top 4 in conf and a first round bye, the people we are competing with also have difficult slates remaining. Last night, one of the announcers said "CU doesnt control its destiny down the stretch", which prompted me to throw an absolute fit, because with the exception of UCLA, we play every single team that is ahead of us or tied with us in the conf standings.

    I'm hoping for a sweet at home (though the ASU win is more impt, in terms of conf seeding, and the zona win is probably better in terms of the dance) and to go 2-1 in the utah/bay area trip. I think they'll drop one there, but I'm just not sure which one yet. You never know what stanford or what cal team will show up. (and, utah is dangerous at home, as many people have found out recently)
     
  28. FtColBuff

    FtColBuff Member

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    Our team is going through a learning process now vs at the start of next year. This year with Spencer would have been great for our program. I could see us winning the Pac 12 again, and possibly a sweet sixteen team with Spencer. I don't see that today.

    We still have a good team. Enough to make some noise if we can step up and snatch victory in our last 5 games because as easy as we could go 3-2, we could go 0-5. We don't play ASU well. We get up for UA but they are more talented than we are. Utah is no gimmie on the road and neither are the Bay schools.

    Dinwiddies injury helped us figure out our roles for next year and I expect us to be a much better team because essentially, we have the same team now with the addition of Collier and Miller. Same starting five with Collier and Hopkins off the bench as guards and Fletcher and Miller, and Thomas coming in at his more natural position, off the bench upfront.

    King isn't ready for the big time and it showed with 3 minutes on the court and 3 turnovers and he was lost out there at the worst time. I like Stalzer, but his minutes going down significantly next year. We will be very good next year. But that is for the future. Right now we don't have enough horses to really do damage and that is evident in that we haven't beaten a really good team since Spencer went down.
     
  29. Yung Buffalo

    Yung Buffalo Club Member Club Member

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    The thing that would excite me the most about Spencer coming back is the effect it would have on Dom. Not only would this team be a juggernaut, but Spencer would give Dom a year to ease into playing PG here, giving him time to develop and get used to the level of play. Also, Dom would have a chance to learn from probably the second best PG CU has ever had.

    I'm really doubtful he'll be back, but I can dream right?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  30. cubuffs85

    cubuffs85 Active Member

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    Agreed the ASU win is important in terms of the conference standing. The Zona win would look better in terms of the conference resume. But if we finish in the top 4 and don't have to worry about a loss there, that might help us more in the long run.

    They should be in with 2 more wins and avoiding a letdown in the Pac-12 Tourney. 3 wins should be icing on the cake.
     

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