1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Where do the Guard minutes go?

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by Darth Snow, Oct 24, 2014.

  1. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2008
    Messages:
    56,929
    Likes Received:
    4,937
    I know the new offense doesn't have "positions" but you have to figure that, on average, Tad will want no more than two true guards on the floor. Even if we go small ball with JHop or someone as a wing, I don't see that being regular. I reserve the right to be wrong. Also, please consider this an attempt to start a discussion, or to get the actual smart basketball guys to show and and tell me what's actually likely to happen. Cause It's hype season baby!

    So, anyways, 80 minutes per game, on average, for the true guards. Ski is going to get 30-35 per game, and I think it will be closer or over 35 per game especially later in the year. That leaves just 45 minutes for the remaining eligible scholarship "true" guards (on the roster, just the G, no slash): XT, Jhop, Dom, Eli.

    For reference, as true frosh on a worse team, Spencer averaged 27.4 mpg and Ski averaged 21.5 (thanks @Goose). One of the local beat guys, Howell, says he thinks Dom is going to get 15-20 minutes (kind of a big # iyam). If true, that leaves 25-30 minutes for XT and Jhop. I think that's a fair guess, although it may cause alarm - or excitement - for some.

    Do these guards split the 45 minutes evenly (15 each), or do two guys separate themselves from the pack? I've heard burrito stand rumors in support of Dom and Jhop. We all know that XT has been putting in a ton of work, and allegedly grew two inches (although Will disputed that any significant growth occurred).

    Honestly, I think it ends up being XT that loses his share of the minutes and averages close to 10 mpg. He will always be there, and be steady, but Jhop's versatility and athleticism make him very valuable to have on the floor if he has actually worked on his game. The harder question is which guard gets more than 20: Dom or Jhop?

    I would prefer it if a true starter/star emerged. The old adage "if you have two quarterbacks, you have none" can be adapted a bit here (if you have three guards...), and we want someone to seize the other guard starting spot and not look back. This is a tough call. But Dom isn't a tall guard (generally listed as 6'2", just like Ski) and #tadball likes lots of nearly interchangeable tall athletes on the floor. Dom & ski at the same time is not a physically imposing backcourt. Also, Jhop showed flashes of being a good defender last year. So Jhop it is. I don't think he gets up higher than 25 mpg, but it might be the best thing for the team if he gets close.

    Thoughts?
     
    wyobuff and Goose like this.
  2. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2005
    Messages:
    10,560
    Likes Received:
    1,548
    I originally thought that XT would be the third man out, but was told a few weeks ago by someone smart that I was being stupid and that XT was going to get a good chunk of minutes. That's just one person's opinion, but it was enough for me to do a double take. Right now, I'm thinking Dom is the third option of the three. I think we'll use him for 10 mpg because he is a true point and the team will need that, but I just think XT & JHop will get more minutes than him. They're more familiar with the scheme, they know what they need to do, and they won't be blinded by the bright lights.

    Let's also not forget the possibility of XJ or Fletch stealing some of those minutes if we go super big and put DT at the 3.

    Rep btw.
     
  3. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2008
    Messages:
    56,929
    Likes Received:
    4,937
    Fair enough. The G/F group (or, umm, FLETCH) stealing minutes from the "true guards" isn't something I accounted for. If that happens, it probably means Jhop's minutes go down as XT/Dom run the offense when Ski is out. Making me completely wrong. :lol:

    Dom losing out minutes in crunch time because he's a true frosh, especially early, could happen. The Mayor and Ski had to earn those minutes as the year went on, even with a much shallower depth chart. If he's the truth though, he will find the floor, and Tad was raving about his decision making the other day...
     
  4. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2005
    Messages:
    10,560
    Likes Received:
    1,548
    It's definitely going to be something to watch as the season goes on. I expect a 10-11 man rotation to start the year, but I want us down to a solid 8 man rotation by the time conference play rolls around (with spot minutes here & there). The interesting part is figuring out those 8. Jelly, Wes, XJ & Ski are locks. You have to figure XT is close to a lock. JHop, Fletch & DT appear to be the next 3, but can one of the frosh sneak in there?
     
  5. wyobuff

    wyobuff Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2013
    Messages:
    1,588
    Likes Received:
    54
    I think that XT played well at times last year, and I dont know if tad ever expected him to be a star, but more of a very solid 4 year guy. He's in year 3 of that, so I'm guessing that he will get more minutes than dom (once p12 play comes) as he knows the system and wont do anything stupid - he may not score a lot, but I dont think he'll sit there and turn over the ball constantly. I'm not saying that's what I think that dom will do, but to us, dom is a bit of an unproven commodity at the collegiate level (while XT is not)
     
  6. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2009
    Messages:
    80,646
    Likes Received:
    16,318
    Just to frame the discussion, here are last year's minutes from the guards returning:

    Askia Booker: 30.5
    Xavier Johnson: 30.1
    Xavier Talton: 20.7
    Jaron Hopkins: 18.2
    Dustin Thomas: 15.1
    Tre'Shaun Fletcher: 9.7
    Eli Stalzer: 8.4
    George King: 5.5

    Of note, Spencer was playing 31.1 mpg for his 17 games. Numbers are skewed for everyone because of the reduced minutes with Spencer and the increased minutes after he went down... except for Tre who went down the same game Spencer did so his average minutes are all with Spencer playing.

    Figure that Ski and XJ will likely get 60 out of a possible 80 minutes a night. That leaves 40 minutes for a 3rd guard position plus 20 from XJ & Ski resting.

    Then, from the front court you've got Jelly at 30 and Wes at 30 with Tory probably claiming 10 of the 20 backup minutes. That gives the group of G/F hybrids (Fletch, DT, XJ) pulling some of their minutes out of the 10 used when the Buffs go with playing a stretch-4.

    So...

    70 minutes available, divided among 7 guys.

    Xavier Talton
    Jaron Hopkins
    Dominique Collier
    Tre'Shaun Fletcher
    Dustin Thomas
    Eli Stalzer
    George King

    I don't know how the heck I'd divide those minutes. One guy will be a starter and probably get 25 a night. 45 minutes for the other 6 is rough.
     
    Darth Snow likes this.
  7. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2008
    Messages:
    56,929
    Likes Received:
    4,937
    fify. Until otherwise shown, I think we only need to figure out 5 guys for those minutes.

    Overall, however, I do think your framing might be better, especially since Tad has said that there is no 1-4 with the new offense. So one guy gets 25, and 45 minutes for the other four. that doesn't really make it any easier though :lol:
     
  8. PuebloBuff

    PuebloBuff Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2005
    Messages:
    224
    Likes Received:
    17
    I think ski will stay around 30, unless Dom and J-Hop are everything our cool aid tells us they'll be then ski's minutes might drop a little to get them on the floor. The question then becomes how much tick does Talton get? Does he dip under 15?

    Worst case, I think we struggle with the new O(Isn't a motion offense trickier to get the hang of than our old pick and roll based sets?) and the sophomores show it's a long hard climb (i.e. 3 or 4 years) to become major contributors, or in J-Hop's case, a consistent starter. If that happens I think XT gets most of the guard minutes opposite ski.

    And I think I'm putting my Fletch infatuation to bed for the time being. If he's struggling with consistency as Boyle mentioned the other day, I think they'll keep him in pretty comfortable situations, which would seem to rule out playing in the back court. Which sucks because I had dreams of him being a mini-'Dre in terms of defensive versatility.
     
  9. gone native

    gone native Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    May 11, 2012
    Messages:
    322
    Likes Received:
    68
    Last year, with overtime minutes, we had 7075 minutes played in total, or 202 minutes per game on average. I thought this discussion was interesting, so I broadened this to include all positions on the floor. Here are minutes from last year, with per game when looking across 35 games, and per game for the number of games played.

    A few observations:
    * Overall for the season, Tad didn't play anybody over 32 minutes per game on average. Needing to keep legs fresh, and with more depth, I expect that to be the case. Josh, the Mayor and Ski all had 31.
    * Last year, with overtime minutes, we had 7075 minutes played in total, or 202 minutes per game on average. I used the same assumption for the overall minutes available per game on average.
    * The guards racked up 91 minutes per game played last year when dividing total time across all 35 games. That will likely go down a little.
    * The "small" forwards will also decrease slightly, and Josh will likely even be able to get spelled more often.
    * We have Miller, who should be an instant force to be reckoned with at his size, so I think the power forwards will have overall increased minutes because of more depth, at the expense of all the other positions.

    ScreenHunter_01 Oct. 24 16.23.gif
     
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2014
    sockdolager and Goose like this.
  10. gone native

    gone native Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    May 11, 2012
    Messages:
    322
    Likes Received:
    68
    I know Tad talks about 4 rotating players + Josh.. but Wes, Miller and Thomas are all have post-up play as a major part of their game, so I still believe the power forwards have a different role on our team. Especially Wes and Miller.
     
    Buffnik likes this.
  11. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2008
    Messages:
    56,929
    Likes Received:
    4,937
    Rep this man. He made a spreadsheet. Much to discuss on Sunday
     
  12. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2009
    Messages:
    80,646
    Likes Received:
    16,318
    Great stuff, g-n.

    Reptastic.
     
  13. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2010
    Messages:
    19,524
    Likes Received:
    1,610
    I've had this hunch XT is going to exceed the number of minutes many think, but I have nothing to base it on other than thinking he's going to be improved.
     
  14. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2009
    Messages:
    25,787
    Likes Received:
    1,359
    Is he really up to 6'4" now? That would help tad get more length on the floor?

    Edit: just checked the roster and he is still listed at 6'2". So I don't know where I heard that. I wish Fortune was eligible this year.
     
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2014
  15. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2010
    Messages:
    19,524
    Likes Received:
    1,610
    So pumped for Fortune.

    I think XT assuming he has once again improved gets decent time because you're simply going to want experience out there in key Pac12 games.
     
  16. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2009
    Messages:
    25,787
    Likes Received:
    1,359
    Look on the bright side, we may settle the basketball work hard versus natural talent debate this year. Just see if XT gets more minutes than jhop.
     
  17. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2010
    Messages:
    19,524
    Likes Received:
    1,610
    true, but the difference here is the front court + Ski may be enough to get away with being "OK" elsewhere. However, if we get into Ski slumping and forcing it, we could be disappointed by results.
     

Share This Page