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Wyoming Game Preview

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by jgisland, Nov 29, 2012.

  1. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    I can't make it to Laramie on Saturday so I am going to compensate for it by doing a ridiculously long preview:

    There is a lot that worries me about Wyoming, they defend well, they have two physical forwards that rebound well and they play at one of the slowest paces in college basketball. CU is off to a great start but Dan Hanner in College Basketball Prospectus had Wyoming 58[SUP]th[/SUP] in his pre-season lineup driven team projections and CU at 66[SUP]th[/SUP]. Ken Pomeroy currently has CU 61[SUP]st[/SUP] and Wyoming at 86[SUP]th[/SUP] with CU projected to win by 1 (62-61) so even though Wyoming’s 7-0 start is due in large part to a weak early season schedule this is anything from a sure victory.

    IMO there are 4 things that CU needs to do to win the game, they can probably manage to do 3 of them well and 1 not so well and still get the win.

    1) Get off to a better start, especially Dinwiddie, he is shooting 26% on FG (32% eFG) in 1st half this yr and shooting 71% FG (91% eFG) in the 2nd half. As a team CU is shooting 43% FG's (38% eFG) in 1st half and 51% on FG's (54% eFG) in 2nd half. They are also turning the ball over on 25% of possessions in the first half and only 17% of possessions in the second half. To put it simply, in the first real road game of the season CU must get out to a better start than they have to date.

    2) Keep Lenard Washington and Larry Nance off the boards: Washington (6-7) is tearing it up on the boards this year, with a defensive rebound % of 29.9% (7[SUP]th[/SUP] in the nation). Conversely Dre is rebounding 24.7% of defensive rebounds (68[SUP]th[/SUP] in the nation). Larry Nance (6-8) is also doing a great job on the boards bringing down 14% of Wyoming’s offensive boards. Dre, Scott and XJ are going to have to do a good job of boxing these guys out when shots go up.


    3) Defend the 3: CU has let Wofford and Texas Southern go off from the 3pt line this year. If CU doesn’t defend Luke Martinez he will make Wyoming the next to do so. Last season Martinez only shot 34% from behind the arc but he managed to go 4-8 for 50% from 3 against CU and had an eFG% of 75% in Boulder. This year he is off to a solid start shooting 42% from 3 and is boosting an eFG% of 57.1%.

    4) Shoot better than they did last year against Wyoming: Last year Wyoming out shot CU by 10.56% and that was the ultimate difference in the game.


    Here is a recap of what happened last year:

    CATEGORY
    Colorado
    Wyoming
    DIFFERENCE
    FGA
    49
    46
    3
    FTA
    19
    23
    -4
    True Shoot Attempts (FGA + 0.475 x FTA)
    58.025
    56.925
    1.1
    Off Rebs
    9
    7
    2
    TOs
    15
    15
    0
    ORB - TO
    -6
    -8
    2
    TS%
    46.53%
    57.09%
    -10.56%
    ORB%
    25%
    26%
    TO%
    23%
    23%
    Points/100 Poss
    84.38
    100.00
     
    dply and CVilleBuff like this.
  2. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Great stuff. Rep.

    I'll add what I said in another thread: Digging through the records, I was somewhat surprised to see that Wyoming leads the series against our Buffs 41-35, not only that, but they've won 13 of the last 17, including the last 5. Obviously we don't face them every year these days, but they've been a consistent thorn in our side. Our last win against them was in 1996.

    Last year, they simply came in and punched us in the mouth. Remember, this wasn't some fluke buzzer beater loss. They won by 11, 65-54. They are good shooters and they simply out-hustled us. They won the battle on the boards.

    We need to play solid perimeter defense, hit the boards, and make our foul shots (something we've drastically improved on the past couple games). I'm optimistic that Ski and the Mayor got their bad shooting nights out of their system against Texas Southern and that they can have a solid night from the field. Wyoming is 7-0, and regardless that they've played the most ridiculously weak OOC schedule I've ever seen thus far, you have to respect what they've accomplished. They're a solid squad that is going to be in the thick of the pack in the MWC. The good news is that they won't be sneaking up on us after what happened last year in Boulder, and after 5 straight losses, the optimistic Buff fan (and a site so big on karma) would believe that we are due for things to go our way against the Pokes.
     
  3. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    A little more info on Wyoming three point specialist Luke Martinez. He is taking 78% of his shots from behind the 3 point line while converting on 45% of them. Conversely Texas Southern's Omar Strong takes 79% of his shots from behind the arc while only converting on 28% of them.

    We better get a hand in Martinez's face.....
     
  4. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    What worries me most about Wyoming is that it's really the first test of how CU will handle zone defense. Last year, the Buffs were completely out of sorts against their 2-3.
     
  5. absinthe

    absinthe Ambitious but rubbish. Club Member Junta Member

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    I dont like this game at all:

    - played at higher altitude than boulder
    - true road game (Boyle's teams are just ok on the road)
    - As noted By JG they have a Gunner, and as we've seen over the years that is a good way to beat these Tad Boyle teams.
     
  6. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    I called this game as a loss when the schedule was announced. Tricky opponent, hard venue, right before what you can argue are two of our most important games of the year.
     
  7. KingPants

    KingPants Club Member Club Member

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    Eh... you probably called the Baylor game a loss too, you negative nancy. :lol:
     
  8. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    There is not one word in this sentence that is false.
     
  9. Buffalo Brad

    Buffalo Brad Club Member Club Member

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    This game will be fun to watch as we will get to see how this team is going to react in a tough road game. I am glad that the freshman have had a chance to play away from Boulder against good competition though, even if it was on a neutral floor. I think we are seeing a different mentality on this team and I hope it carries over to Laramie. We will learn a lot about this team Sat.
     
  10. HawaiiBUFF

    HawaiiBUFF Well-Known Member

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    Does anyone know where I might be able to find this game in Los Angeles? Thanks.
     
  11. Buffenuf

    Buffenuf massive tool

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    Last year, the Buffs had only one day to rest (and yet work), coming off a tight win vs. Fresno. So they were tired and had little practice against the 2-3.

    Their tiredness showed in the 2nd half, after being tied at half: their FG% dropped and their fouls increased. The Buffs really got beat at the free throw line in that game, Wyo-14/22 vs CU-5/10 in that final half. (Must have had MWC refs for that one!)

    Like to think they'll be both rested and improved with two practices vs. the Wyo zone. Rest should help shooting % and defense, practice should help in attacking the zone. Plus that OT win should bring them back down to earth mentally, w/o the negs of a loss.
     
  12. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    Wyoming just opened as 2 point favorites
     

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