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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues
- Thread starter InTheBuff
- Start date
Just took a look at the MWC media deal. They each make about $4M per year.
For comparison, the Big East deal is $4.6M per team (that's a non-football deal).
Got to figure that the Pac can get MWC teams for a reduced share and that they'd be well worth it by delivering home football markets on top of their basketball/other sports values.
For comparison, the Big East deal is $4.6M per team (that's a non-football deal).
Got to figure that the Pac can get MWC teams for a reduced share and that they'd be well worth it by delivering home football markets on top of their basketball/other sports values.
iWillDuYu
Well-Known Member
UCLA is not staying
BYU is going to be in the B12 in 7 months
SDSU and any other western school not in the PAC already is not going to add a dime to the numbers we’ve heard specualted
GK talks out of his @ss repeatedly and just makes stuff up as he goes
We’ve all known it from the outset of this ucla/usc debacle, the B12 is where our near future should be. More $, better sports/fans, and is MUCH better exposure for us. We should already be gone with AZ by now
BYU is going to be in the B12 in 7 months
SDSU and any other western school not in the PAC already is not going to add a dime to the numbers we’ve heard specualted
GK talks out of his @ss repeatedly and just makes stuff up as he goes
We’ve all known it from the outset of this ucla/usc debacle, the B12 is where our near future should be. More $, better sports/fans, and is MUCH better exposure for us. We should already be gone with AZ by now
That’s been my take too, but CU is going to wait and see how the numbers work for the PAC.
If the money is the same or close, and the PAC sticks to 10 members, then I think the conference is very unstable and CU should bolt to the Big 12. Patience is the right call for now by CU. Passivity by the PAC has been its incorrect call for a decade. The pac needs to do something big if it wants to survive.
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I’m really curious how comfortable anyone, CU especially, will really be with the Pac12 media number when Oregon and Washington have one foot out the door (and Cal/Stanford to a lesser extent). Unless they’re signing a pretty iron clad GOR it’s still a very vulnerable situation and our bargaining position with the Big 12 takes a huge hit when/if UO and UW bolt for the BIG. Without that GOR I’m all for taking a Big12 offer if it comes.
And write a check to the P12 for $18M? People seem to forget about the loan repayment. It's paid back through a lien against our media share over the coming years if we stay. We owe it if we leave.
If it's over an acceptable number of years, that's OK. Five?
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The difference in media money between being a member of the Big12 and a PAC 8 + MWC or whatever is left will be greater than that. $18M is a lot but staying in a dying conference is worse.
this whole thing could still go a lot of ways, but i do think we may be trending toward "not totally and completely ****ing screwed yet."
pac holds together (with or without ucla and with or without adding anyone) and we are somewhat safe for awhile. pac blows apart and we almost for sure land in at the big 12 and are somewhat safe for awhile.
we aren't getting a big or sec invitation any time soon and honestly the carnage on the field we would face is almost difficult to comprehend.
the right deal, for this round, should be settled soon. we should have a new hc soon, with hopefully some hope that comes with that.
live to fight another day.
pac holds together (with or without ucla and with or without adding anyone) and we are somewhat safe for awhile. pac blows apart and we almost for sure land in at the big 12 and are somewhat safe for awhile.
we aren't getting a big or sec invitation any time soon and honestly the carnage on the field we would face is almost difficult to comprehend.
the right deal, for this round, should be settled soon. we should have a new hc soon, with hopefully some hope that comes with that.
live to fight another day.
Still think the logical end is to blow up the PAC,ACC, and B12 and form conference #3 from the best of those three conferences shedding the less valuable markets.
Could also se the B1G picking 4 existing PAC schools taking Washington (Seattle media market,) Oregon (Portland market, pair for Washington, Nike money,) then take CU (Denver/Rocky Mountain market, established name that still gets decent ratings despite recent struggles.) Fourth team poses an issue for them.
First choice would be one of the Arizona schools but not both. Either would give them a strong draw in that market, especially playing B1G schools. This though would mean separating the schools something that would be a political challenge. B1G holds the cards though. They simply say that one of you gets $70 million a year or you both can hope to get $30 million from what is left of the PAC.
If they can't get a single Arizona school then they take Utah.
Could also se the B1G picking 4 existing PAC schools taking Washington (Seattle media market,) Oregon (Portland market, pair for Washington, Nike money,) then take CU (Denver/Rocky Mountain market, established name that still gets decent ratings despite recent struggles.) Fourth team poses an issue for them.
First choice would be one of the Arizona schools but not both. Either would give them a strong draw in that market, especially playing B1G schools. This though would mean separating the schools something that would be a political challenge. B1G holds the cards though. They simply say that one of you gets $70 million a year or you both can hope to get $30 million from what is left of the PAC.
If they can't get a single Arizona school then they take Utah.
If you look at population zones, what makes the most sense is 3 conferences of 20-24 programs.
B1G: Midwest + Northeast
SEC: South
PAC: West (TX split with SEC & getting LA back)
If it was just logic you are completely correct. Not how it is happening but would make sense.
SEC and B1G have some schools they wouldn't mind shedding either.
BerkeleyBuff
Well-Known Member
This should be pinned to the top of every page of this thread.
I don't trust either of these individuals, but supposedly Dan Patrick reported it
Makes too much sense.
GoBuffs08
Well-Known Member
UCLA gets blocked from moving, CU gets the invite from BIG to replace. WIN
Hopefully the B1G would take Stanford instead.
Even though we'd be giving up some major brands, we wouldn't lose any home markets and would add 2 huge CA home markets with SDSU & FSU. It could make the numbers work surprisingly well - and get the Pac-12 off its elitist stance to start embracing the entire west.
Fresno?
Holy hell there's no way Stanford, Cal, Washington, or even we would allow an institution with the academics of Fresno into the same conference.
Fresno is behind Boise in academic rankings. That's like community college stuff.
I think that without the Stanford & USC votes it becomes much easier to leave elitism behind and focus solely on market value + athletic competitiveness.
This is not the same conference which no-voted Oklahoma + Oklahoma State due to neither being AAU members.
That timeline makes a lot more sense.
1. Clarity from Nov 17 UC Regents meeting.
2. Media deal (which includes negotiated valuations & escalators for various expansion targets, but would not be made public).
3. Expansion announcements. Full membership and potentially non-football expansion (UNLV & UNM would be nice if we didn't have to take their football teams, for example).
BerkeleyBuff
Well-Known Member
Dumpster fire
Fresno would instantaneously be the worst academic institution in P5.
This isn't about AAU snobbery, I get your point about that. But as I said, Cal, Washington, and even CU are not going to let a school that is essentially a community college into a P5 conference.
It's a non-starter.
Speaking of which, UNLV is also below Boise in academic rankings, which probably puts them in non-starter territory, too.
UNLV was upgraded by Carnegie to R1 in graduate research intensity. That makes them a much easier sell as a cultural peer university.
I don't think that OU-OSU comment is accurate. The P12 turned both down since the P12 was being used by both to get concessions out of the Big 12. Both schools would still qualify for the P12 academically since I believe OSU is a Tier 1 research school but barely.
I hope Stanford leaves the P12 for the B1G if UCLA is unable to go. If that happens, Frenso most likely replaces them.
If UCLA still bolts, I think we need to go after UNLV after we nab SDSU. P12 would pretty much lock down the southwestern USA with that move.
If we lose one NW school, Boise most likely replaces that school. Lose a second one, I think Utah gets shifted onto that NW group and that means there is an opening for the Mountain group. Salt Lake City is just four hours away from Boise so Boise-Utah would feel more of a natural rivalry than CU-Utah. Guess who could take Utah's spot in the Mountain group? CSU is a real possibility in that case. I still believe CU & CSU need to be in the same conference to make college sports matter again in this state. I'd be fine with UNM instead of CSU because I think the P12 needs to focus more on basketball in this case.
P12 still needs to go beyond 12 school and that doesn't have to mean 16 football playing schools. I'd go after SMU & UTSA to make it 14 football playing schools. Gonzaga and one more non football school would be added in this case. Wichita State or maybe UT Arlington could be that school. I think it would be cool if WSU ends up in the Big 12 and has those intense basketball crowds against KU & KSU.
I think the play might be SDSU + SMU to stay in SoCal and add the DFW market presence. I also think going to 14 in that case makes sense via paired rivals for SDSU & Utah to go with CU paired to SMU. Those other 2 would be from among FSU, UNLV and BSU.