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Dennis Dodd: Texas to the Pac 12 makes sense

JimmyBuff

Well-Known Member
says the Longhorn network can be rolled into the 7th regional network. Not good for people who don't want Texas.
Don't look at this Texas A&M thing as conference realignment. Look at it through the stakeholders' eyes.

The stakeholders being ESPN, Oklahoma, A&M and Texas. It's likely that ESPN CEO John Skipper is evaluating at this moment how to maximize his profits through Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Texas if there is another round of conference shuffling.

Where those schools end up is less important than how the three current Big 12 schools can be profitable for ESPN (and Fox).

Whether or not A&M ends up in the SEC, watch for the Pac-12 to sooner or later take another run at Texas. The Big 12's instability dictates it. Commissioner Larry Scott told the Austin American-Statesman last month after the formation of the Pac-12 network one could "imply" that the Longhorn Network would be a "huge impediment" to Texas joining his league.

How quickly things change -- or possibly change. In a strange way, the Pac-12 could now make it more likely that Texas make the jump if it deems the Big 12 not worth the effort.

"At this point I don't think Larry does anything," one source close to the situation said, "He's got to let it come to him. He's the one who is sitting there with all the firepower. There is no one in a better position to monetize expansion than Larry Scott is. Not the SEC, not the Big East, not the ACC, not the Big 12. He's sitting in the catbird seat."

Why? Because he can. Remember, Scott was the guy who had invited six Big 12 teams, including Texas, last year. Consider it a still-open invitation. One that Texas would have to seriously consider.

One source painted it this way: The new Pac-12 Network is made up of six regional networks. Why couldn't the Longhorn Network be folded into the Pac-12 as a seventh regional network?

The source emphasized that ESPN is desperate to make TLN profitable. It has sunk hundreds of millions into the venture and there is no certainty whether it will work. To date, only the Big Ten Network has been profitable among collegiate networks.

It didn't help Thursday that the NCAA ruled against the televising of high school games on school/conference networks.

There are a few hurdles. Texas supposedly would have to surrender its third-party rights (re: archival, historic properties). But if Texas shows interest, that's nothing more that details. The new Pac-12 shares revenue more or less equally. Again, that can be worked out because it's, well, Texas.

Pac-12 schools would have consider working around those barriers to get the No. 1 revenue-producing athletic department into its conference.

That takes care of Texas. Oklahoma? If A&M bolts, it is seemingly a swing team between the Pac-12 and SEC.

Here's why ESPN would like A&M in the SEC: The Aggies would make ESPN's (and CBS') 15-year, $3 billion deal with the league more profitable. Some at A&M obviously see it as a more stable home.
http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/6270202/31272222
 
He's glossing over the revenue sharing. That was/is/will be the major impediment to them joining the PAC.
 
linked article said:
There are a few hurdles. Texas supposedly would have to surrender its third-party rights (re: archival, historic properties). But if Texas shows interest, that's nothing more that details. The new Pac-12 shares revenue more or less equally. Again, that can be worked out because it's, well, Texas.

I shouldn't have worried. This says it all. In the first place, the Pac 12 doesn't "more or less" share revenues equally. It completely shares revenues. And no, that's not something that can be "worked out" just because you're Texas.

Texas' arrogance is mind bottling. They're trying to dictate their entrance to the Pac. We simply can't let them anywhere near our conference. Even if they agree to our terms, they'll always be trying to change the rules. They simply are not worth the headaches. Nobody is. Let them do whatever they want to do, just keep them the hell away from us.
 
I shouldn't have worried. This says it all. In the first place, the Pac 12 doesn't "more or less" share revenues equally. It completely shares revenues. And no, that's not something that can be "worked out" just because you're Texas.

Texas' arrogance is mind bottling. They're trying to dictate their entrance to the Pac. We simply can't let them anywhere near our conference. Even if they agree to our terms, they'll always be trying to change the rules. They simply are not worth the headaches. Nobody is. Let them do whatever they want to do, just keep them the hell away from us.

If Texas wants in, Larry Scott and the rest of the schools will allow it.
 
If Texas wants in, Larry Scott and the rest of the schools will allow it.
No they won't. Scott already said Texas wouldn't be invited and wouldn't the schools have to have a 12-0 vote in favor of them joining? I just don't see The CU prez voting for UT.
 
Never say never. The odds of Texas joining are not good, but they are better than most Buffs fans think IMO.
 
No they won't. Scott already said Texas wouldn't be invited and wouldn't the schools have to have a 12-0 vote in favor of them joining? I just don't see The CU prez voting for UT.

$$$$$$$ talks. Texas would bring more money to the Pac 12. The Presidents ain't stupid

I'm not crazy about it but I'm just looking at reality. Tech, UT and the Oklahoma schools will eventually be in our conference someday.
 
$$$$$$$ talks. Texas would bring more money to the Pac 12. The Presidents ain't stupid

I'm not crazy about it but I'm just looking at reality. Tech, UT and the Oklahoma schools will eventually be in our conference someday.
So does the past. UT has ruined two conferences and I don't think Scott nor any of the presidents want that either. UT is much more trouble than they are worth, as we saw in the Big 12 and SWC.
 
The only good news is I think there is no way they go to 16 unless UT comes, so we at least wouldn't be throwing recruiting overboard.
 
$$$$$$$ talks. Texas would bring more money to the Pac 12. The Presidents ain't stupid

I'm not crazy about it but I'm just looking at reality. Tech, UT and the Oklahoma schools will eventually be in our conference someday.

I just don't think the Pac-12 would put up with the demands of Texas to bring Texas Tech along (if, god forbid, the whorns join the Pac). Texas Tech is complete ****. If we must ruin the luster of the Pac by infesting it with midwestern schools, let's do it with as much dignity as we can and bring KU along instead of Tech. I think the Pac is in position now to have the leverage to tell UT that TT is not coming along for the ride.
 
I just don't think the Pac-12 would put up with the demands of Texas to bring Texas Tech along (if, god forbid, the whorns join the Pac). Texas Tech is complete ****. If we must ruin the luster of the Pac by infesting it with midwestern schools, let's do it with as much dignity as we can and bring KU along instead of Tech. I think the Pac is in position now to have the leverage to tell UT that TT is not coming along for the ride.

Kansas might go with the Big East schools. Better basketball league.
 
Kansas might go with the Big East schools. Better basketball league.

Kansas isn't going to go to the Big East over the Pac. Not a chance. They'll head to the Big East if need be, but the Pac is clearly higher up in the pecking order. Remember, it's football that makes the $$$, even for schools like KU. Plus, UCLA and Arizona have a little hoops history of their own
 
Can't we ****ing enjoy one season in the PAC 12 without hearing this crap. Go away Texas. You had your chance.
 
Can't we ****ing enjoy one season in the PAC 12 without hearing this crap. Go away Texas. You had your chance.

Hoping this is just summer rumormongering that spiraled out of control since nobody in TX can even step outside (and away from their comps) due to the heat they've been having down there. August 22nd might go past with no announcement, the season will start, and everyone will STFU with this crap.
 
One "detail" that can't be glossed over:

The Pac 12 regional networks are 100% conference owned.

Converting the LHN into one of the regional networks (supposedly a UT-TTech network) would require the conference to purchase the LHN from ABC/ESPN.

ABC/ESPN would have to be a willing seller, and the Pac 12/14/16 would have to be a willing buyer.

So, if ESPN wanted to sell their recently launched network, I'm sure they would want the same $300 million (or whatever they invested to start-up the network and purchase the rights). That would mean each Pac-16 member would have to absorb $18.75 million just to bring this regional network into the fold.

That would mean the "added-value" number for the addition of Texas would now have to increase the per-member share of the current TV contracts, and ALSO absorb the $300 million network purchase. That would mean that four new members would have to increase the total package by $1.6 billion with NO additional revenue gains for the existing members. So, could the four new members bring $2 billion at the minimum to kick in something extra to the pot.

Well, our current primary rights are owned by ABC/ESPN and Fox. Why would ABC/ESPN contribute $1 billion to own 50% of the expanded Pac-16 primary rights where they have to let some of the primary content fall to the conference owned network; when they can just ensure the status quo by spending the $60 million per year thru 2016 to retain the primary Big 12 rights and $300 million to completely own all things Longhorn?

ABC/ESPN might be facing some problems right now getting distribution for the LHN on a national scale, but at least they own 100% of the content. They are not so stupid that they would spend more money to get less premium content. If they were smart they would target the Big 12 members about starting up "regional" networks to air their third-tiered content and continue to pay them bargain prices.
 
One "detail" that can't be glossed over:

The Pac 12 regional networks are 100% conference owned.

Converting the LHN into one of the regional networks (supposedly a UT-TTech network) would require the conference to purchase the LHN from ABC/ESPN.

ABC/ESPN would have to be a willing seller, and the Pac 12/14/16 would have to be a willing buyer.

So, if ESPN wanted to sell their recently launched network, I'm sure they would want the same $300 million (or whatever they invested to start-up the network and purchase the rights). That would mean each Pac-16 member would have to absorb $18.75 million just to bring this regional network into the fold.

That would mean the "added-value" number for the addition of Texas would now have to increase the per-member share of the current TV contracts, and ALSO absorb the $300 million network purchase. That would mean that four new members would have to increase the total package by $1.6 billion with NO additional revenue gains for the existing members. So, could the four new members bring $2 billion at the minimum to kick in something extra to the pot.

Well, our current primary rights are owned by ABC/ESPN and Fox. Why would ABC/ESPN contribute $1 billion to own 50% of the expanded Pac-16 primary rights where they have to let some of the primary content fall to the conference owned network; when they can just ensure the status quo by spending the $60 million per year thru 2016 to retain the primary Big 12 rights and $300 million to completely own all things Longhorn?

ABC/ESPN might be facing some problems right now getting distribution for the LHN on a national scale, but at least they own 100% of the content. They are not so stupid that they would spend more money to get less premium content. If they were smart they would target the Big 12 members about starting up "regional" networks to air their third-tiered content and continue to pay them bargain prices.

I could see ESPN trying to work out some sort of equity swap deal to trade their equity in the LHN for a stake in the PAC Networks...not real thrilled about that idea at all since we own the new stuff without giving up an equity stake. They'd have to take a REAL hard look at the numbers to see how they compared...and that's assuming Bevo didn't come in demanding an increased piece of the pie. The other alternative is the LHN becomes a regional affiliate that swaps content with the PAC Network (and has cross network programming) but where the revenue buckets stayed separate, they'd also likely need to cut in Tech in with UT. Not sure how that would work since ESPN was clearly planning on trying to market Bevo Net nationally so it would screw up their numbers projections and have redundant programming with the PAC network.
 
I just don't see the conference going back on the equal revenue sharing to get Texass. If UT were willing to equally share the pie and fall into line with the other schools, then they'd absolutely be in.

In the end though, it comes down to whether UT (and 3 other schools) is going to bring in at least $80 million/year. Otherwise, it's a step backwards in terms of revenue per school for the Pac. Possibly would need to bring in even more given ScottyBuff's points on possibly needing to buy out the rights to the TLN to bring into the fold.
 
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He's glossing over the revenue sharing. That was/is/will be the major impediment to them joining the PAC.

This.

The Pac 12 presidents/Scott are not stupid. They see what havoc Texas wreaks on a conference. The only way Texas gets an invite is if they adhere to the same rules as everybody else. Money talks, but not when it is absolutely obvious that giving in to any of UT's demands is selling your soul.
 
$$$$$$$ talks. Texas would bring more money to the Pac 12. The Presidents ain't stupid

I'm not crazy about it but I'm just looking at reality. Tech, UT and the Oklahoma schools will eventually be in our conference someday.

I don't want any of them unless Baylor comes along too :)
 
we are going to be making $25 to $30 million very shortly. How much more value does adding Texas and their trolls get us. If it is anything less than $15 million a year, I say we tell them to take a hike.
 
The swarming mass of UT fans around me are praying for a Big 12 disintegration. They're ga-ga over the idea of going independant. I think they would like to see themselves as a secular Notre Dame.
 
**** off Dennis Dodd. You shut your mouth.

[video=youtube;Ag8g96qsdaI]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ag8g96qsdaI&feature=related[/video]
 
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