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The Hypothetical 64 - Who Gets Left Out?

BuffNut99

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I've been trying to imagine what four 16-team conferences would look like, and in the process, determine who gets included and excluded. Basically some current BCS teams are going to get the shaft, and some NAQ teams are going to get dream promotions.

There are currently 67 BCS teams (including TCU in the Big East in 2012), so a minimum of 3 need to get booted. I listed under "Others" those schools who, to varying degrees, will receive anything from automatic invitations somewhere (Notre Dame) to cursory consideration (Colorado State) and everything inbetween.

I'm making the assumption that the Big 12 and Big East will be picked apart and that the ACC will remain intact (to be the 4th mega conference with the SEC, Big 10, Pac 12), with all of its current members, only to add four (the assumption being that they would add but not subtract, i.e. drop Duke or Wake).

I bolded every team who I believe is automatically in the elite 64; I italicized every current BCS team who needs to worry. According to my math, there are 61 teams (bolded) who figure to be in a mega conference... which will be the last to the dance, and who goes where?


ACC (12)
Boston College
Clemson
Florida State
Maryland
North Carolina State
Wake Forest
Duke
Georgia Tech
Miami (FL)
North Carolina
Virginia
Virginia Tech

Big 12 (10)
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Missouri
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech

Big East (9)
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Louisville
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
South Florida
Syracuse
TCU
West Virginia

Big 10 (12)
Illinois
Indiana
Ohio State
Penn State
Purdue
Wisconsin
Iowa
Michigan
Michigan State
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northwestern

Pac12 (12)
Arizona
Arizona State
Colorado
UCLA
USC
Utah
California
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
Washington
Washington State

SEC (12)
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
LSU
Mississippi State
Ole Miss
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt

Others:
Notre Dame
Boise State
BYU

Nevada
Fresno State
Houston
SMU
Southern Miss
Colorado State
New Mexico
San Diego State
 
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Looking at the others list CSU has no business even being considered. If the 64 team deal happens, they are screwed.
 
for KU:

pro, AAU member U. one of the top 2-3 basketball programs of all-time
con, football appears to be driving this thing completely. tied to be partnered with KSU, at least 15 months ago.

best for KU would be a Big Ten scenario (since AAU membership could be a factor)....more likely, Big East (possibly with KSU....which would be bonus lucky times 1000000 for KSU).
 
If you take all the teams currently listed in the AQ conferences plus Notre Dame, BYU, Boise you get 70 teams meaning to get to 64 you cut six.

Definite cuts:
Baylor
Iowa State
UConn
South Florida

Probable cuts:
Rutgers
Boise

This leaves a few schools hoping like crazy that Rutgers and/or Boise don't get their spot. These could include K-State, Texas Tech (probably safe because of politics,)Cincinnati, TCU (See Texas Tech),
 
KU football, last five years:
34-28
Orange Bowl - W
Insight Bowl - W

Vanderbilt football, last five years:
20-41
Music City Bowl - W

Rutgers football, last five years:
40-24
Texas Bowl - W
International Bowl - W
PapaJohns Bowl - W
St. Petersburg Bowl - W

Cincinnati football, last five years:
45-20
International Bowl - W
PapaJohns Bowl - W
Orange Bowl - L
Sugar Bowl - L

CU football, last five years:
21-40
Independence Bowl - L
 
If you take all the teams currently listed in the AQ conferences plus Notre Dame, BYU, Boise you get 70 teams meaning to get to 64 you cut six.

Definite cuts:
Baylor
Iowa State
UConn
South Florida

Probable cuts:
Rutgers
Boise

This leaves a few schools hoping like crazy that Rutgers and/or Boise don't get their spot. These could include K-State, Texas Tech (probably safe because of politics,)Cincinnati, TCU (See Texas Tech),

UConn football, last five years:
37-27
Mienecke Car Care Bowl - L
International Bowl - W
PapaJohns Bowl - W
Fiesta Bowl - L
 
I don't think Rutgers is particularly in a bad position right now. Could see the ACC or even the B1G snatching them as they're the closest major school to NYC (yes, I know no one in the northeast cares about football sans Penn State, but we all know the markets obsession). Pivotal season for them coming up
 
I've been trying to imagine what four 16-team conferences would look like, and in the process, determine who gets included and excluded. Basically some current BCS teams are going to get the shaft, and some NAQ teams are going to get dream promotions.

There are currently 67 BCS teams (including TCU in the Big East in 2012), so a minimum of 3 need to get booted. I listed under "Others" those schools who, to varying degrees, will receive anything from automatic invitations somewhere (Notre Dame) to cursory consideration (Colorado State) and everything inbetween.

I'm making the assumption that the Big 12 and Big East will be picked apart and that the ACC will remain intact (to be the 4th mega conference with the SEC, Big 10, Pac 12), with all of its current members, only to add four (the assumption being that they would add but not subtract, i.e. drop Duke or Wake).

I bolded every team who I believe is automatically in the elite 64; I italicized every current BCS team who needs to worry. According to my math, there are 61 teams (bolded) who figure to be in a mega conference... which will be the last to the dance, and who goes where?


ACC (12)
Boston College
Clemson
Maryland
Florida State
North Carolina State
Wake Forest
Duke
Georgia Tech
Miami (FL)
North Carolina
Virginia
Virginia Tech


Big 12 (10)
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Missouri
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas

Texas A&M
Texas Tech

Big East (9)
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Louisville
Pittsburgh

Rutgers
South Florida
Syracuse
TCU
West Virginia

Big 10 (12)
Illinois
Indiana
Ohio State
Penn State
Purdue
Wisconsin
Iowa
Michigan
Michigan State
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northwestern


Pac12 (12)
Arizona
Arizona State
Colorado
UCLA
USC
Utah
California
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
Washington
Washington State


SEC (12)
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
LSU
Mississippi State
Ole Miss
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt

Others:
Notre Dame
Boise State
BYU

Nevada
Fresno State
Houston
SMU
Southern Miss
Colorado State
New Mexico
San Diego State

I think the last few spots could come down to which conference needs a couple schools to fill out to 16. I agree with you that the 4 survivors would be the Pac-12, Big [strike]10 [/strike] [strike]11[/strike] 12, the $EC and the ACC. So to start filling these leagues (existing members in italics, teams getting invites in blue above):


Pac-12


Arizona
Arizona State
Colorado
UCLA
USC
Utah
California
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
Washington
Washington State

Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas Tech



Big "10"

Illinois
Indiana
Ohio State
Penn State
Purdue
Wisconsin
Iowa
Michigan
Michigan State
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northwestern

Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
Syracuse
Kansas




$EC

Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
LSU
Mississippi State
Ole Miss
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt

Florida State
Virginia Tech
Missouri
Texas A&M


ACC

Boston College
Clemson
Maryland
North Carolina State
Wake Forest
Duke
Georgia Tech
Miami (FL)
North Carolina
Virginia

West Virginia
Louisville
South Florida
Connecticut
Cincinnati
Rutgers


The last 3 spots came down to Kansas to the Big 16 and Cincy and Rutgers to the ACC. The Big 16 runs out of natural fits at around 15. Most of the schools that make geographic sense don't make academic sense (even less than UNL made "academic" sense for them... :lol:) or bring nothing to the table athletically. KU fills that spot better than any of the other options, I'm guessing. As for the ACC, I see them getting raided by the $EC before all this locks in, and scrambling to fill up. Cincy, Rutgers and USF might not be the best schools on the list, but unless the ACC wants to come all the way west for schools like TCU, BYU or Boise, or even the decaying carcass of the Big XII (KjSU, ISU, Bailer...) they are probably the best schools available to the ACC when it all shakes out.

As for the western schools, it sucks to be them. Unfortunately, the UT 4 are the best schools anywhere close to the PAC-12. And once the Pac-12 fills up, none of the other big conferences are going to want anything to do with BYU, TCU or Boise. They're just in the wrong location.

One possibility that could change a lot of that is if the Big 10 decided on UT instead of KU (which seems more possible when you look at their options for spots 14-16). I can't imagine the Big 10 having any interest in UT's posse, so the Okies and Tech would be cut loose, and the Pac probably wouldn't be interested in Tech under those circumstances.
 
Sad. The service academies deserve to play DI ball. Not only because of the under-appreciated service they offer our country, but because of a very storied college football past. I do not like these sixteen team conferences.
 
Sad. The service academies deserve to play DI ball. Not only because of the under-appreciated service they offer our country, but because of a very storied college football past. I do not like these sixteen team conferences.

I could see a pretty decent "#5" conference consisting of the remnants of the Big XII and teams like Boise, TCU, AFA and BYU that would at least keep the Zoomies in a fairly good place, even if it wouldn't be part of the BCS or whatever the 4 megaconferences organize themselves into...

Army and Navy would probably not be much worse off under this system than they are now. But I agree, I love service academy football and would hate to see them get screwed in whatever realignment ends up happening...
 
Cool thread. I look at it this way...there are 12 teams in the Pac, 12 teams in the SEC, 12 teams in the Big Ten, and 12 teams in the ACC. Add Notre Dame (who I think eventually ends up in the Big Ten), and that's 49 teams. All those are safe.
From the Big 12, Texas, Oklahoma, A&M. From the Big East, Syracuse, Rutgers, Pittsburgh. That takes us to 55. I think all of those teams are locks, so there are really 9 "wild-card" spots left. IMHO, here are the teams on the bubble, in order from most likely to find a home to least:

THE ALMOST LOCKS

Oklahoma State - Pac-16 or SEC. Don't bring much to the table, but OU will bring them wherever they go. And make no mistake: OU will find a home somewhere. Verdict: In.

Missouri - Big Ten or SEC. Not a great football tradition, but they could bring the St. Louis market. Verdict: In, eventually.

Kansas - Big Ten, SEC, outside chance at the Pac-16. They'll eventually find a home because of the KC market and strong B-ball tradition. (I know that football's driving the bus, but it helps.) Verdict: In.

UConn - Big Ten, ACC. The Big Ten has been vocal about wanting to expand to the eastern markets. Adding UConn would snag them the Hartford market and stretch the Big Ten to New England. Strong B-ball tradition doesn't hurt either. Verdict: In.

"WELL, WE NEED ANOTHER TEAM. HOW ABOUT ONE OF THESE GUYS?"

Texas Tech - Pac-16 or bust. They are going to try to stick to UT like Jeff Van Gundy on Alonzo Mourning's ankle and hope that UT drags them along. Verdict: they don't bring much to the table, but Texas will insist they get a Pac-16 invite.

Louisville - SEC, ACC, extremely outside chance at Big Ten. Bring the Louisville market, probably more attractive to the ACC than the SEC, who already has Kentucky. Verdict: I think they get in, but it wouldn't surprise me to see another team from this category get in instead.

Cincinnati - ACC, extremely outside chance at SEC or Big Ten. Would bring the Cincinnati market and decent B-ball, but not much else. Verdict: see above.

South Florida - ACC or SEC. Maybe more attractive to the SEC to give them a presence in South Florida, but they're probably still a long shot. They're a newcomer to D-1 football as well. Verdict: see above.

"WE WISH WE COULD HELP YOU, BUT WE LIKE WHO WE HAVE RIGHT NOW"

TCU - Pac-16, SEC, extremely outside shot at the ACC. Still a newbie to BCS football, but an up-and-coming program. DFW market. Why they get left out in the cold: Pac-16 won't want a religious school. SEC would want a bigger program, and they'll already have a Texas team in A&M.

West Virginia - ACC, SEC, extremely outside shot at the Big Ten. They've been good as of late, but remember: they're only the kings of the Big Least because Miami and VA Tech left. Why they get left out in the cold: no market to speak of.

Air Force - Pac-16. They have a great program, especially for a service academy. Why they get left out: Pac-12 already has a team in Colorado, and they don't add any new markets. It will be more important to expand the conference footprint to Texas and Oklahoma.

UNLV - Pac-16. Personally I would love it if the Pac had a team in Vegas (assuming of course they eventually upgrade their joke of a high school stadium). It would be a great roadtrip, fill out a gap in the conference footprint, and bring the LV market. Why they get left out: their program and academics aren't up to par to Pac-12 standards. It's one thing to bring a BCS buster from a lower conference like Utah in, it's another to bring a team that has struggled in that same lower conference.

"DON'T CALL US - WE'LL CALL YOU..."

Boise State - Pac-16. Great BCS buster as of late, but they'll get left out due to horrific academics (by Pac-12 standards) and not being a big enough market to justify taking them over someone who would expand the conference footprint to the east. And who knows if they'd really be competitve without a gimmick field and playing a real schedule.

Kansas State - Big Ten, extremely outside shot at the Pac-16 or SEC. Much like OK St. or TT, their best hope is to stick to their bigger rival and hope they get taken along for the ride. Don't bring anything to the table that KU doesn't. And...I bet KU would leave them behind. OU and UT are set, and they can afford to make demands. I don't think a bubble team like KU will risk being left behind just so little brother can tag along.

New Mexico - Pac-16. Horrible football program in a ho-hum market (ABQ). Expands the conference footprint, gives CU fans a nice roadtrip, but not much else. They'll be passed over for former Big 12 teams unless the Pac has no other options.

BYU - Pac-16. They really deserve to be higher on the list given their football tradition. But they get left out because the Pac has been pretty firm about not accepting religious schools. Plus, they don't expand the conference footprint any and we already have a duplicate market in SLC with Utah.

"PLEASE TELL ME YOU'RE JOKING"

San Diego State - Pac-16. San Diego market, yes, but minimal enthusiasm for this school, and don't the LA schools already bring SD? No way would Larry Scott give up a perfectly good spot for yet another California school to saturate the market.

Hawaii - Pac-16. Honolulu market, although that hasn't exactly done wonders for the WAC. Doesn't add much to the Pac - in fact probably hurts recruiting since the local boys will want to stay home. The Pac is looking east for expansion, not west.

Colorado State and Fresno State - :lol:
 
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Good post, OriginalWhiz. A few minor things:

Living in ACC country, I think WVU has a better shot at the ACC than Louisville or Cincinnati. No, they aren't strong academically, but neither are Lousiville or Cinci. Their football success/fanbase dwarfs those schools as well. Also important to keep in mind that Morgantown is very close to Pittsburgh - it's actually a safe bet to say the Pittsburgh media market has far more WVU fans than Pitt fans. Already having existing rivalries with Maryland, Virginia Tech and to a lesser extent, Virginia, doesn't hurt their cause either.

-Syracuse and Rutgers being safe poses some trouble for UConn. The BigTen and ACC are both likely to expand into the Northeast so there are at least two spots, but they're all fighting for that (mythical) NYC market. UConn football has come on strong lately, but they've only been DI for ~10 years, and 'Cuse and Rutgers both have the upper hand on UConn academically, a big point of emphasis for both the B1G and ACC.
 
Good post, OriginalWhiz. A few minor things:

Living in ACC country, I think WVU has a better shot at the ACC than Louisville or Cincinnati. No, they aren't strong academically, but neither are Lousiville or Cinci. Their football success/fanbase dwarfs those schools as well. Also important to keep in mind that Morgantown is very close to Pittsburgh - it's actually a safe bet to say the Pittsburgh media market has far more WVU fans than Pitt fans. Already having existing rivalries with Maryland, Virginia Tech and to a lesser extent, Virginia, doesn't hurt their cause either. -Syracuse and Rutgers being safe poses some trouble for UConn. The BigTen and ACC are both likely to expand into the Northeast so there are at least two spots, but they're iall fighting for that (mythical) NYC market. UConn football has come on strong lately, but they've only been DI for ~10 years, and 'Cuse and Rutgers both have the upper hand
on UConn academically, a big point of emphasis for both the B1G and ACC.

UConn has a bit of the same thing going on as KU. Not great football programs, but great basketball. And when you start getting toward the bottom of the 64, that might be enough, especially if the geography is right. Plus, the ACC has always been more hoops oriented than the other 3 "megaconferences". I could see Duke and UNC championing getting UConn in over some of the other options that would be out there...
 
Good post, OriginalWhiz. A few minor things:

Living in ACC country, I think WVU has a better shot at the ACC than Louisville or Cincinnati. No, they aren't strong academically, but neither are Lousiville or Cinci. Their football success/fanbase dwarfs those schools as well. Also important to keep in mind that Morgantown is very close to Pittsburgh - it's actually a safe bet to say the Pittsburgh media market has far more WVU fans than Pitt fans. Already having existing rivalries with Maryland, Virginia Tech and to a lesser extent, Virginia, doesn't hurt their cause either.

-Syracuse and Rutgers being safe poses some trouble for UConn. The BigTen and ACC are both likely to expand into the Northeast so there are at least two spots, but they're all fighting for that (mythical) NYC market. UConn football has come on strong lately, but they've only been DI for ~10 years, and 'Cuse and Rutgers both have the upper hand on UConn academically, a big point of emphasis for both the B1G and ACC.

Have to somewhat agree with you on WVU, in the final evaluation it is all going to come down to who can and does generate the most money. We can talk all we want about academic level but that doesn't mean Harvard or Yale are getting in. We can talk about tradition and history but Army and Navy are not likely to get in. WVU does not have a great market but they generate a lot of money out of it. The pack their stadium with fans, they travel well, and they get good TV ratings when on.
 
Boulder Camera reporting that Notre Dame, BYU, Air Force are atop Big 12's wish list

http://www.buffzone.com/ci_18696980

Colorado State had better get its resume updated fast

k4514232.jpg
 
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Good post, OriginalWhiz. A few minor things:

Living in ACC country, I think WVU has a better shot at the ACC than Louisville or Cincinnati. No, they aren't strong academically, but neither are Lousiville or Cinci. Their football success/fanbase dwarfs those schools as well. Also important to keep in mind that Morgantown is very close to Pittsburgh - it's actually a safe bet to say the Pittsburgh media market has far more WVU fans than Pitt fans. Already having existing rivalries with Maryland, Virginia Tech and to a lesser extent, Virginia, doesn't hurt their cause either.

Good to hear it from the East Coast perspective. I think a lot will depend on how the carousel spins once the dominoes start to fall. For example, maybe the ACC has a couple extra spots due to getting raided by the SEC. I could easily see the Big Ten taking Pitt while the ACC takes West Virginia or something like that.

-Syracuse and Rutgers being safe poses some trouble for UConn. The BigTen and ACC are both likely to expand into the Northeast so there are at least two spots, but they're all fighting for that (mythical) NYC market. UConn football has come on strong lately, but they've only been DI for ~10 years, and 'Cuse and Rutgers both have the upper hand on UConn academically, a big point of emphasis for both the B1G and ACC.

Agreed on the mythical NYC market. I used to live there, and believe me it was all Yankees and occasional Jets or Giants. I can't remember EVER seeing people rocking Syracuse or Rutgers gear. Still, the Big Ten seems to be convinced they need to expand out there. I would think the ACC would try to nab Syracuse, while the Big Ten would take Rutgers and UConn. That's just a guess, though. But UConn will clearly be behind Syracuse, Pitt, and Rutgers in the NE pecking order.
 
Lol - the Big 12 has no prayer of getting ND. If the Big Ten hasn't been able to, a dying conference certainly won't be able. As I've said before, I doubt even BYU would go. They're independent now, probably the last thing they want to do is join a conference that is crumbling and probably won't exist within 2 or 3 years. Air Force might do it, and is at least a more exciting prospect than Houston or SMU.


Boulder Camera reporting that Notre Dame, BYU, Air Force are atop Big 12's wish list

http://www.buffzone.com/ci_18696980

Colorado State had better get its resume updated fast

k4514232.jpg
 
+1. Unfortunately for them (and fortunately for us as Pac-12 fans), the Pac is one of the few conferences that actually cares about academics. And geography dictates that the Pac-12 is their only option. Plus, how good would they have really been if they played more than 1 game a year? Seriously.

No way should Boise be in consideration to be one of the have's in college football.
 
Agreed on the mythical NYC market. I used to live there, and believe me it was all Yankees and occasional Jets or Giants. I can't remember EVER seeing people rocking Syracuse or Rutgers gear. Still, the Big Ten seems to be convinced they need to expand out there. I would think the ACC would try to nab Syracuse, while the Big Ten would take Rutgers and UConn. That's just a guess, though. But UConn will clearly be behind Syracuse, Pitt, and Rutgers in the NE pecking order.

I think there's a strong chance the ACC would go after Syracuse, at least based on their past expansion. Syracuse was the ACC's first choice before VT started bitching and moaning and got Gov. Mark Warner to tie UVA's hands behind their back and push for the Hokies. However, this was before Schiano had turned around Rutgers and made them respectable. Rutgers and Maryland could develop a rivalry of sorts
 
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Lol - the Big 12 has no prayer of getting ND. If the Big Ten hasn't been able to, a dying conference certainly won't be able. As I've said before, I doubt even BYU would go. They're independent now, probably the last thing they want to do is join a conference that is crumbling and probably won't exist within 2 or 3 years. Air Force might do it, and is at least a more exciting prospect than Houston or SMU.

One of the major reasons beewhyyou went indy was for the outreach of the faith. They can, and are starting to, schedule games all around the country. Add that nation-wide exposure to the school's existing network (reportedly 60M people) and you have an institution that absolutely doesn't need a conference. Beewhyyou isn't joining a conference for football any time soon. Prolly not until the mythical 16-team super-conferences are born.
 
One of the major reasons beewhyyou went indy was for the outreach of the faith. They can, and are starting to, schedule games all around the country. Add that nation-wide exposure to the school's existing network (reportedly 60M people) and you have an institution that absolutely doesn't need a conference. Beewhyyou isn't joining a conference for football any time soon. Prolly not until the mythical 16-team super-conferences are born.

Plus, the MWC media payout was under $3 million a year. The economic risk of going independent wasn't significant for a business unit of the LDS church. For a program like Texas, we're talking about a conference media deal that pays over $20 million. Much harder to go solo and make that kind of cheddar up. But would BYU now choose to join a conference? Maybe, considering those economics, the greater exposure of Big 12 games, and the fact that it would assuage their bruised egos from the Utes going BCS and them not being invited to that party.
 
I read on ramnation that the Big East wanted Hawaii but Hawaii chose the MWC instead. No joke
 
Agreed on the mythical NYC market. I used to live there, and believe me it was all Yankees and occasional Jets or Giants. I can't remember EVER seeing people rocking Syracuse or Rutgers gear. Still, the Big Ten seems to be convinced they need to expand out there. I would think the ACC would try to nab Syracuse, while the Big Ten would take Rutgers and UConn. That's just a guess, though. But UConn will clearly be behind Syracuse, Pitt, and Rutgers in the NE pecking order.

Just my two cents but having lived in NYC for the past 18 years the market is not necessarily mythical, it's just not tied to any one team and definitely not to geographically proximate schools (ie Syracuse or Rutgers). There are buttloads of college football fans but they're mainly alums of schools from across the country: Michigan, Michigan State, Texas, Florida, Colorado, Notre Dame, etc. Plenty of bars have specific school-related watch parties. Run through Central Park on a Saturday and you'll see quite a bit of Penn State, VT, WVA and even TTech gear. I'm always seeing folks in the BnG, on the subways, streets, in restaurants and stores.

Point being, if one of the super 16 conferences got the right grouping of schools they'd pull a decent NYC-based group of fans, probably comparable to and certainly more dedicated than from, say, some combo of Ft. Fun, Wacko, Lawrence and the other Manhattan.
 
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