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2012-13 Bubble Watch

I'll toss BYU in here. BYU won at Pepperdine 63-61 tonight to improve to 17-6 (7-2). They have no good wins -- best wins are Santa Clara and Virginia Tech. Those aren't "good" wins. However, their RPI was hovering around 50 entering tonight, which means they're ahead of St. Mary's by around 7 spots. Still, that resume of theirs is nonexistent in the good wins department. They need to beat Gonzaga. Lunardi has them in his "First Four Out" on his most recent bracketology.
 
CVilleBuff said:
I'll toss BYU in here. BYU won at Pepperdine 63-61 tonight to improve to 17-6 (7-2). They have no good wins -- best wins are Santa Clara and Virginia Tech. Those aren't "good" wins. However, their RPI was hovering around 50 entering tonight, which means they're ahead of St. Mary's by around 7 spots. Still, that resume of theirs is nonexistent in the good wins department. They need to beat Gonzaga. Lunardi has them in his "First Four Out" on his most recent bracketology.
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Strange team. I'm with Bilas on teams like this: "I don't care who you've played, I care who you've beat." No bad losses and no quality wins should equal NIT if the committee has a lick of sense. So they'll probably get a 6 seed.
 
Buffnik said:
Strange team. I'm with Bilas on teams like this: "I don't care who you've played, I care who you've beat." No bad losses and no quality wins should equal NIT if the committee has a lick of sense. So they'll probably get a 6 seed.
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Totally agree. Say they finish 6-2, with losses to St. Mary's and Gonzaga. 23-8 (12-4). Best wins: Santa Clara x2 (the only top 100 team they've beaten, and Santa Clara is ~90th.). Losses: Florida State, Notre Dame, Iowa State, Baylor, St. Mary's x 2, Gonzaga x 2. That's a **** resume if I've ever seen one.
 
Saturday's bubble games:

Baylor 14-6 (5-2) at Iowa State 14-6 (4-3). Critical game for both teams. You could make the argument that it's even more important for ISU because they have to hold home court, but Baylor is in need of a win as well after losing to OU in Waco. Baylor's RPI is 36th, while ISU's is 40th. This should be a battle.

St. John's 14-7 (6-3) at Georgetown 15-4 (5-3). Huge game for both. Georgetown is much safer than St. John's heading into this one, though.

Arizona State 17-4 (6-2) at Washington 12-9 (4-4). ASU deserves a mention on here since they just keep ****ing winning. Their RPI is still only 54th due to their weak OOC. Getting their doors blown off by DePaul in Tempe won't help their cause, but they do have wins over CU and UCLA.

Pittsburgh 17-5 (5-4) hosts Syracuse 18-2 (6-1). Massive opportunity for Pittsburgh to get an elite win and bring their RPI to safety.

North Carolina 14-6 (4-3) hosts Virginia Tech 11-9 (2-5). The Heels are in good shape, but they have to avoid bad losses, like...losing to VT at home.

Florida State 12-8 (4-3) hosts Duke 18-2 (5-2). The 'Noles are still a fringe bubble team, but getting Duke in Tallahassee presents a golden opportunity for them to really make themselves a contender. Leonard Hamilton has had Duke's number in recent years.

Maryland 15-6 (3-5) hosts Wake Forest 10-10 (3-5). Terps have a more favorable ACC schedule down the stretch. They should be in the thick of it.

Notre Dame 17-4 (5-3) at DePaul 10-10 (1-6). Notre Dame is in good shape, just have to avoid bad losses.

Oklahoma State 14-5 (4-3) at Kansas 19-1 (7-0). Okie Lite's RPI is 37th, but their inability to win road games is going to put them right on the bubble.

Alabama 13-7 (5-2) at Vanderbilt 8-11 (2-5). Bama has a very easy schedule down the stretch. They should get to around 21 or 22 wins in the regular season, but it will be a lot of junk wins over SEC garbage.

Kentucky 14-6 (5-2) at Texas A&M 13-7 (3-4). Kentucky's win at Ole Miss was exactly what the doctor ordered. Still, their RPI is only 50th and they need to go on a little winning run here. A&M did beat UK in Rupp a few weeks back.

Oklahoma 14-5 (5-2) hosts Kansas State 16-4 (5-2). Oklahoma has an excellent RPI (18th) and their win at Baylor put them in great shape.

Ole Miss 17-3 (6-1) at Florida 17-2 (6-0). Ole Miss has the gaudy record, but a closer look shows their RPI is still only 45th. They've also picked up some injuries. They're not as safe as it appears at first glance.

Temple 14-6 (3-3) at St. Joseph's 12-7 (3-3). Temple's RPI is 52.

BYU 17-6 (7-2) hosts Santa Clara 17-6 (5-3). I'm mystified by how BYU is a bubble team, but they are (Lunardi had them in his First Four out). They've beaten Santa Clara once already (their only top 100 win). Their RPI is 46.
 
Thanks for the great lead-in to the weekend, CVille. YMSSRA.

Nothing on the men's side for Friday night, but Saturday could cause some major movements if we see some upsets.
 
More on the Illini:

Butler losing a couple games lately won't keep them from the Dance, but it does hurt Illinois's resume. And Illinois needed that Butler win to be a Dance Card despite its struggles in B1G play.

You start looking at that Illinois record and it becomes less impressive. Needing OT to beat Hawaii? Only beating Auburn by 2 at home? A 1-point home win against Gardner-Webb? A win is a win, but there are serious question marks about this Illini team.

They had better not lose these next 3 (Wisc, Ind, @Minn). And after that, they host a mediocre Purdue team they already lost to by 7 on the road.
 
CVille, it might be a bit off the radar but I'd add UMass at UNC-Charlotte to that list. Both of these teams have games left against VCU, Butler, and Temple so they both have their chances to play their way in before the conference tournaments.
 
CarolinaBuff said:
CVille, it might be a bit off the radar but I'd add UMass at UNC-Charlotte to that list. Both of these teams have games left against VCU, Butler, and Temple so they both have their chances to play their way in before the conference tournaments.
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True, good catch. UMass is 14-5 (4-2) with an RPI of 47. Lack much in the way of good wins, but they have opportunities coming up. UNC-Charlotte is 16-4 (4-2) with an RPI of 56th, they're in the same boat lacking much in the way of good wins (both teams have defeated LaSalle), but have opportunities. Charlotte has a lot of narrow victories over questionable teams, but they do keep winning for the most part. Two teams lurking below the radar in the A-10 that are in the hunt.
 
Cuse isn't a bubble team but there are rumors flying around that Michael Carter-Williams could be ruled ineligible as soon as tomorrow's game at Pitt. That would be a huge blow with Southerland academically ineligible for at least 2 more games and Coleman out for the next 4 weeks due to surgery.
 
i think ISU beats BU by 10 or more. BU seems mentally weak (reflection of coach?)....and as we've discussed Hilton is a tough gym with ISU coming off tough loss in Stillwater. though, my aesthetic and moral sense enjoys BU suffering....still good for us if the wacky Baptists count as a top rpi 50 win.

on the issue of who you have beaten, not played (Bilas quote)....that's why i like the win vs. rpi top 50 stat more than stuff like last 10 games (committee has proven time and a again that's a bogus one...even though they still trot it out sometimes) to keep on my Big 8 thing....i think it was one of the Eddie Sutton OSU Final Four teams that something 14-2 vs. rpi top 50. that's an impressive stat to me. half your games against top 50/Dance type teams and 14-2. the Big XII was tough in the early 00's. Sutton, Knight, Gillespie (sober, maybe), Sampson, Roy, Barnes.

veering off topic here since japanese girlfriend thing has gone off the rails....too many beers last night. weird mix of anger, relief, good beers, and basketball free association revert to comfortable past to deal with screwed up present. oh well.
 
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Pittsburgh about to beat Syracuse. Huge win for Pitt, the "elite" win they needed. Pitt improves to 18-5 (6-4).

North Carolina heading into OT with Virginia Tech in Chapel Hill.
 
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VT had that game and gave it away. It's hard to imagine UNC not making the Dance.

Roy Williams is the most over-rated coach in college basketball. Not that this has anything to do with this thread or my post, but I just like saying that whenever the opportunity presents itself.

Pittsburgh is in. By the numbers (Oeff, Deff), they're a Top 15 team. They just kept finding ways to lose their big games.
 
UNC is nearing safety. Improve to 15-6 (5-3), just need to avoid horrendous losses.

VT should have never fired Greenberg. He was the best they could ever hope for with their **** facilities
 
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Glad I don't have to hear him bitching about being left again on ESPN after the selection show.
 
CU's only hope: win everything at home, get one in Oregon, get one in the Bay Area. Unlikely it happens, but that's what would get us in. Forget finishing 4th, though. Today crushed that.
 
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Great game between Miami and NC State. Miami wins it on a tip-in with 1 second left, then NC State damm near made a 3-quarter court shot at the buzzer. This just in, Miami is good. They've won 9 in a row now, 5 of those on the road in conference play.
 
CarolinaBuff said:
Great game between Miami and NC State. Miami wins it on a tip-in with 1 second left, then NC State damm near made a 3-quarter court shot at the buzzer. This just in, Miami is good. They've won 9 in a row now, 5 of those on the road in conference play.
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Winning conference road games is possible? Who knew? Larranaga is the real deal. Deserved a shot at the big time long, long ago.
 
Miami is a dangerous team. They are big, athletic, can play inside and out, and have some good guards. Really isn't much they don't have. If they are on, they can play with anybody.
 
Huge win for Oklahoma State knocking off KU in Allen Fieldhouse. OSU gets that big road win they were lacking and they don't come any bigger than this.
 
CarolinaBuff said:
Huge win for Oklahoma State knocking off KU in Allen Fieldhouse. OSU gets that big road win they were lacking and they don't come any bigger than this.
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Yep. Exactly what they needed and more. First road win in a long time

The hits just keep coming for CU.
 
Kentucky fans have taken over Texas A&M's arena. At least 5,000 there. They take their basketball seriously enough.
 
CVilleBuff said:
Kentucky fans have taken over Texas A&M's arena. At least 5,000 there. They take their basketball seriously enough.
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that is weird to me. ATM has been pretty good for a decade....lost coaches to Maryland and Kentucky....and Reed is a newish gym i'd love to have in Boulder....imagine...

i guess basketball interest is inverse proportion to football success in the Texas. i don't like Calipari much but Aggies could lose from now until forever in every sport i wouldn't care. Johnny Football and all that. groan.
 
Villanova lost at home to Providence. That's going to be hard for them to recover from. They were on the edge to begin with.

Iowa lost at Minnesota. Not a surprise, but Iowa needs some quality wins because they've got some ground to make up.

Louisville is destroying Marquette. I can's see Marquette falling off and missing the Dance at 6-2 after today in Big East play, but this hurts them. They're non-conference schedule wasn't all that great and they only went 9-3 in the non-con.

Also on:

Oregon State was giving Stanford a good game early in Palo Alto, but Furd just went on a 17-2 run to take a 10pt lead in the 1st half.

Virginia is also in a battle at Georgia Tech. The don't want Tech to hang around at home, but the problem with UVA is that they play such a low scoring game that teams can hang around on them.

Biggest game of the day is tipping right now. Wisconsin is at Illinois. Loser is going to have a lot to worry about.
 
UVA simply cannot afford another bad loss. They should pull away from GT, they've owned the Jackets under Bennett. But, UVA is young and we know what can happen to young teams on the road
 
Wisconsin up 33-24 at Illinois at the half.

It's a B1G scoring fest! If the Badgers can keep it rolling, they just might hit 65 points today.
 
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