2012-13 Colorado Buffaloes vs Utah Basketball game thread

[MtnBuff]

And Buff fans have officially jumped the shark. Chen's a fine role player, but there's a reason Ski averages 3 times as many points in 9 more minutes. He shoots better from behind the arc, he's better at the line, rebounds better, and is the more dynamic player. When Ski goes off in California next week, there are a few people here who are going to have to eat a little crow.

I hope I do have to eat crow. Ski has barely scratched the surface of his potential while Chen is playing very close to his ceiling. The problem right now with Ski is which Ski do we get from game to game. Do we get the Ski who can create shots on his own and hit from almost anywhere opening up the floor or do we get the Ski who takes multiple bad shots breaking the teams offensive pace and giving the ball to the opponent as well as taking bad chances on defense giving up easy buckets.

With the make-up of the team right now we need both players to go anywhere this year. I think Tad is often a little frustrated with Ski but he knows he needs the offensive threat he provides. I think that Tad also has a lot of patience with Ski because he knows what he can be and wants to give him the chance to get there.

I did coach BB years ago although certainly not at the college level. Right now both players are needed but Chen provides a lot of things that don't show up on the stat sheets but translate into wins.

 

[Quattro]

Hilarious

 

[L Buff]

Yeah, LBuff. It's all attributable to those 10 minutes a game more that Ski gets over Chen.

Seriously?

Can't be. You guys are ****ing with me, aren't you?

The numbers don't lie, Nik.


Spence = 106-226 fgs for 469%

Ski = 130-338 fgs for 385%

Chen = 44-101 fgs for 436%


And are you saying that 10 minutes difference in PT isn't significant? That's a quarter of the game ... and Chen is generally brought in as a ball handler rather than a shooter.

 

[Buffnik]

The numbers don't lie, Nik.


Spence = 106-226 fgs for 469%

Ski = 130-338 fgs for 385%

Chen = 44-101 fgs for 436%


And are you saying that 10 minutes difference in PT isn't significant? That's a quarter of the game ... and Chen is generally brought in as a ball handler rather than a shooter.

Yep. Shooting percentage definitely determines who the better basketball player is. Come on, man. This is a seriously ridiculous conversation.

 

[jcatcher]

Part of the reason Chen is effective is because teams just completely stop guarding him and he gets a ton of open looks. That doesn't happen with Ski. He gets constant attention, which opens things up for the entire offense. Besides, I think Chen's D is little overrated. He's the 3rd best defensive player on his own team, in a best-case scenario.

Chen does get a lot of open looks, but rarely takes advantage of them. Last night and the first AZ game are the only times where it looked like he was confident in his shot and took it when he got the chance. It's odd that he is so reluctant to shoot but makes the craziest mistakes with his passes. Last night at a point in the game where caution was the most important thing (late in the second half with a good but not winning lead) he made a pass in traffic while he and (I think) XJ were at full speed. It was a good pass but XJ couldn't handle it at full speed and turned it over. Utah came down and drained a three that cut the lead down to six, IIRC.

 

[Buffnik]

Chen does get a lot of open looks, but rarely takes advantage of them. Last night and the first AZ game are the only times where it looked like he was confident in his shot and took it when he got the chance. It's odd that he is so reluctant to shoot but makes the craziest mistakes with his passes. Last night at a point in the game where caution was the most important thing (late in the second half with a good but not winning lead) he made a pass in traffic while he and (I think) XJ were at full speed. It was a good pass but XJ couldn't handle it at full speed and turned it over. Utah came down and drained a three that cut the lead down to six, IIRC.

I really like Chen. He's pure hustle, he shows great leadership, and he does a lot of great things for the team. I love players like Chen and good teams need guys who guard multiple positions, give you a little bit of everything on the stat sheet and step up to give the team what it's lacking a bit in a given game. He finds a way to help the Buffs win every time out.

The issue here is that our fans are way too reactionary when it comes to basketball. Chen had a nice game against Utah and we needed it. But I can remember last week having to read posts about how horrible he is because he didn't score a single point in the 46 minutes he played against Zona and ASU.

Ski is in a long shooting slump that started in Pac-12 play. He's basically had 3 good shooting nights in 14 conference games. He'll come out the other side of this, though, and when he does it makes the Buffs the best team in the Pac-12. He's that much of a difference maker.

 

[Junction]

Yep. Shooting percentage definitely determines who the better basketball player is. Come on, man. This is a seriously ridiculous conversation.

Xavier Talton is better than any of them. .556 FG %. FACT!

 

[Buffnik]

Xavier Talton is better than any of them. .556 FG %. FACT!

I think Mills is around 60%.

 

[jcatcher]

I really like Chen. He's pure hustle, he shows great leadership, and he does a lot of great things for the team. I love players like Chen and good teams need guys who guard multiple positions, give you a little bit of everything on the stat sheet and step up to give the team what it's lacking a bit in a given game. He finds a way to help the Buffs win every time out.

The issue here is that our fans are way too reactionary when it comes to basketball. Chen had a nice game against Utah and we needed it. But I can remember last week having to read posts about how horrible he is because he didn't score a single point in the 46 minutes he played against Zona and ASU.

Ski is in a long shooting slump that started in Pac-12 play. He's basically had 3 good shooting nights in 14 conference games. He'll come out the other side of this, though, and when he does it makes the Buffs the best team in the Pac-12. He's that much of a difference maker.

Don't get me wrong, I like Sabatino too. It's just odd to me that he can be so cautious about taking shots but seems to have no fear of making passes that have a small percentage of success.

 

[BehindEnemyLines]

Chen's play kinda reminds me of Kurt Rambis. Very blue collar; he'll give you good D, a few rebounds here, some steals there, and he'll fight for a loose ball. He's pretty unselfish and very much team-oriented.

And he traveled a difficult road to be on a D1 power conference team. It's good for the young guns to see what hard work and hustle means to the team.

 

[L Buff]

Ski is in a long shooting slump that started in Pac-12 play. He's basically had 3 good shooting nights in 14 conference games.

Three good shooting nights in fourteen games is not a "slump." It's indicative of something much more endemic, e.g., poor judgment, poor shot selection, trying to do too much, etc. etc.

He'll come out the other side of this, though, and when he does it makes the Buffs the best team in the Pac-12. He's that much of a difference maker.

I hope so ... we all do. But some of us think that he may
need to sit a little more and absorb the lesson that he's not in HS anymore.

 

[Quattro]

:lol:

 

[MtnBuff]

Don't get me wrong, I like Sabatino too. It's just odd to me that he can be so cautious about taking shots but seems to have no fear of making passes that have a small percentage of success.

Chen has a total of 27 turnovers this season, Ski has 55. Comparison Chen has 24 steals to Ski's 33.

There is no question that Ski is a much more talented and explosive player. Unfortunately that talent this season has been accompanied by way to many poor decisiions and forced plays. Hopefully next year with more overall scoring potential on the team he won't feel like he has to push as hard to score and will relax and play more under control.

 

[L Buff]

:lol:

So ... you apparently can't refute my point that 3 good shooting games out of 14 is more than a "slump"... so you post a lol smilie?

How buffy-me-too-esque of you.

 

[Quattro]

So ... you apparently can't refute my point that 3 good shooting games out of 14 is more than a "slump"... so you post a lol smilie?

How buffy-me-too-esque of you.

No it's hilarious that people are even having this discussion for the reasons that Nik listed above.

 

[Buffnik]

Three good shooting nights in fourteen games is not a "slump." It's indicative of something much more endemic, e.g., poor judgment, poor shot selection, trying to do too much, etc. etc.

I hope so ... we all do. But some of us think that he may
need to sit a little more and absorb the lesson that he's not in HS anymore.

Booker's not a high % shooter. He's a streak shooter. Percentage might go up a bit as he becomes a vet and gets a better sense of choosing his spots. But that probably means getting up to 42-44% for a season (he was 40% as a frosh and he's 38% this year). It probably means that he'll get his FT% back up into the 75-80% range (he was 76% as a frosh and is 69% this year).

He's really, really good now. He'll only get better. In relation to Ski, Tad keeps talking about Carlon's slump last year and how he came out of it when it was showtime. Ski needs his minutes and he needs to find his stroke. Because, frankly, when it gets to March and we're playing games that matter against good teams the truth of the 2012-13 Buffs and Askia Booker is: We can lose with him, but we can't win without him.

To conclude, I want to put Ski's "bad" season into perspective. Here are his stats versus what Carlon Brown did last year:

Askia Booker / Carlon Brown
PPG- 13.4 / 12.6
RPG- 3.7 / 3.8
APG- 2.3 / 2.0
SPG- 1.3 / 0.8
FG%- .382 / .447
3Pt%- .325 / .307
FT%- .690 / .723

We fans need to start recognizing Ski for what he's doing and do our best to support him while he's slumping. Because even his "bad" is pretty damn good.

 

[Buffnik]

Chen has a total of 27 turnovers this season, Ski has 55. Comparison Chen has 24 steals to Ski's 33.

There is no question that Ski is a much more talented and explosive player. Unfortunately that talent this season has been accompanied by way to many poor decisiions and forced plays. Hopefully next year with more overall scoring potential on the team he won't feel like he has to push as hard to score and will relax and play more under control.

So what you're saying is that you think playing like a 5th year senior (because you are) makes a guy a better player than a true soph who is "much more talented and explosive".

You're entitled to your opinion.

 

[seattlebuff]

I'd like to know what Ski's FG% has been in PAC 12 play. Because his 38% overall I think is inflated by his great start in those early tourneys. It is true, he's one of our most dynamic players, and most dangerous off the dribble, but his atrocious shooting is a huge liability. I truly believe that if Tad went to Chen and said, "we need you to create and shoot more", he'd put up just as good numbers with better intangibles and hustle. I'd love for Ski to make me and others eat our words. He has the potential. But times running short. We lose 3 of 4 and we're looking at NIT. A good run by Ski and maybe we win 3 of 4 and a couple tourney games and get 7-8 seed.

 

[Quattro]

Seriously? Chen creating a shot? :lol:

 

[CVilleBuff]

:rofl:

 

[Tractor]

Good thread, would read again.

I'll troll a bit: :devil:


5 on 5. I would submit that a team of Chen's clones would beat a team of Ski's clones if it's even possible to have that much hair on the court at any given time.



But with a "hot" Chen, we eeked out a win at home against a team with an RPI of 170. With a "hot" Ski, we can beat anybody we've played with the possible exception of Kansas in Kansas. CU with Ski dialed in can give anybody in basketball a game. Can the same be said of Chen? Give me Ski.

FACTS:

Sabatino Chen

26

23.8

4.6

2.2

1.3

0.9

0.1

1.0

.431

.576

.316

Askia Booker

26

32.6

13.4

3.7

2.3

1.3

0.0

2.1

.382

.690

.325

Chen plays 9 minutes fewer per game. So let's project his numbers based on a 50 percent increase in playing time (~11 minutes) so I don't have to do any crazy hard math. that would mean he'd be getting MORE time than Ski
Chen's new numbers: 24.8 6.9 3.3 2.6 1.3 .2 2.0

Yeah, I think I'll still go with the guy that's gonna score more, get more rebounds, get pretty close to the same assists, same amount of steals, .2 fewer blocks per game, and half an extra turnover per game against top competition geared to stop him.

 

[MtnBuff]

So what you're saying is that you think playing like a 5th year senior (because you are) makes a guy a better player than a true soph who is "much more talented and explosive".

You're entitled to your opinion.

Yes, I am saying that right now as they are Chen is a better player. I understand and support Tad playing Ski as he does for the reasons you state, Ski is still learning and developing and what he could be is something that Chen will never be but right now at this moment I'll take Chen.

You go back to Carlon but even with his "slump" he ended up shooting .447 compared to the .382 that Ski is shooting for this season. Every time the ball clanks off the rim we are more often than not giving the ball back to the other team. In terms of talent there is no comparison but when you look at how that talent is used right now Chen is better. In two years or even next year we may, and probably will have a different answer.

 

[BuffLuke80]

Ski is always gonna be streaky but he needs to be out there as much as possible. To me, his shot selection is shaky at times but he's young. He'll be fine tho.

 

[Buffnik]

I'm just going to try to look at this as people rightly complimenting Chen for maximizing his talent and having a productive senior year for us.

One thing I do want to add, though, is a note on the extrapolation of production being linear with increased minutes. It doesn't work that way. The history of NBA trades is littered with fired GMs who thought that if they got a 6th man with a great PER and started giving him starter minutes that the production would go up in turn. It doesn't work that way. More responsibility and focus on a player will reduce his efficiency. It's much harder when teams focus on you as a guy they need to stop. And one of the first game planning rules for teams playing us this year (along with "put a body on Dre" is "don't let Ski go off").

 

[Quattro]

Look at the win shares....

 

[torero]

I'm just going to try to look at this as people rightly complimenting Chen for maximizing his talent and having a productive senior year for us.

One thing I do want to add, though, is a note on the extrapolation of production being linear with increased minutes. It doesn't work that way. The history of NBA trades is littered with fired GMs who thought that if they got a 6th man with a great PER and started giving him starter minutes that the production would go up in turn. It doesn't work that way. More responsibility and focus on a player will reduce his efficiency. It's much harder when teams focus on you as a guy they need to stop. And one of the first game planning rules for teams playing us this year (along with "put a body on Dre" is "don't let Ski go off").

Remember before the season when people were talking about how terrible Chen was, why was this guy starting type stuff. Funny how things come around.

Sabatino has been excellent in his role. Ski is very frustrating at times, but you have to be completely insane to say that Sabatino is the better player.

 

[Goose]

	% Poss	ORtg	OReb%	DReb%	Ast Rate	TO Rate
Ski	24.9	96.0	2.2%	10.8%	15.8%	15.8%
Chen	12.5	99.6	3.7%	6.9%	10.8%	21.1%

First off, Chen does have a higher offensive rating than Ski. But not by much. And it's a lot easier to be efficient when you're not the focus of the defense. Ski deals with the ball on one out of every four possessions for the Buffs. Chen? One out of eight. Chen, despite being bigger, is a worse rebounder than Ski. Also, others have said that Chen has been the ballhandler for the Buffs (which is SERIOUSLY debatable, but we'll let that go). If that's true, we're in trouble. Chen turns the ball over more than 1 out of every 5 possessions (21.1% - almost 6% higher than Ski). Also, Ski has a higher assist rate.

Listen, I love Chen. He's everything you want from a glue guy. He's a great defender, he's a great leader and he does everything that's asked of him (not to mention the glorious hair). On senior day, I will be cheering my head off for him. On the other side, we have Ski who can tend to drive me insane. He has a tendency to be a ball stopper at times and will take shots that make you question if he needs to have his vision checked. But if you give me a choice on who to have on the team, Ski is my pick 100 times out of 100, and I don't even give it a second thought. Ski is a potential All-Pac-12 player. Chen is a guy who you're glad to have for four years.