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2013-2014 Non-Conference Schedule Predictions

absinthe said:
It isn't so much the mistake as the fact you flatly ignore anything that maybe contrary to your view of the situation.
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No, I'm not ignoring it, I just think you're being overly pessimistic and overlooking other teams faults while only looking at our faults.
 
Darth Snow said:
'Tini getting destroyed, resorts to feeble mewlings.
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What because you, jgis, and Abs disagree and I believe you three are being overly pessimistic given our talent level and coaching? Would you like to answer my question about CSU and AF? I even put in the JUCO stats further down the page for you.
 
'Tini said:
What because you, jgis, and Abs disagree? Would you like to answer my question about CSU? I even put in the JUCO stats further down the page for you.
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your evidence <<< their evidence. For you to be right, every single one of your optimistic projections has to come through. You are only pessimistic about other teams, and are only sunshine pumping about the Buffs. That's a fun way to think, but it's not very smart.
 
Parity at home works both ways....

Just like Buffs eye Kansas and think "If we can have the Keg rocking and make it a buzz saw"....

...CSU fans are thinking the exact same about when CU visits. Once in a blue moon are we going to march in there and leave with an 82-57 victory as long as Eustachy is coaching there.
 
Darth Snow said:
your evidence <<< their evidence. For you to be right, every single one of your optimistic projections has to come through. You are only pessimistic about other teams, and are only sunshine pumping about the Buffs. That's a fun way to think, but it's not very smart.
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It's optimistic to predict a win in games we will be favored in (assuming)?

And how is their evidence regarding road wins (read: upward trend in win%) and AF and CSU (read: losing all their scoring, rebounding, etc.) better than mine? They're all assumptions, I just put what both are losing and asked how people can predict a loss at this point when looking at all the production that those two teams need to replace. Four tough games, the rest I don't see us having much trouble, especially since most are at home. I see 10-3 at the worst (not going to get swept by the Big 12 and Harvard schools).
 
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'Tini said:
What because you, jgis, and Abs disagree and I believe you three are being overly pessimistic given our talent level and coaching? Would you like to answer my question about CSU and AF? I even put in the JUCO stats further down the page for you.
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like say this:

absinthe said:
I think CU will improve at roughly the same rate as other well coached schools barring attrition when adjust for time, some people here think we are making leaps and bounds while other teams are taking baby-steps. You are right that those Juco's at CSU may not gel, I am right that we'll be younger than them, we'll be on the road, and we arent very good on the road historically. What will win-out? is great question. It is indeed however a question guys talking like CSU and AFA are locks for us to win arent being realistic.
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absinthe said:
like say this:
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Looks a lot like you're not taking into account starting talent differences between us and CSU (CU>CSU) and us and KU (KU>CU). Higher talent level more often than not, while they may progress at the same rate (however the hell you measure that with varying talent levels), will start out better than the lower talent team, like say Oregon and Utah in football.
 
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We aren't saying those games are locks, we're saying you are undervaluing the talent on this team immensely. No way to know until the season I suppose, but just as a quick example. Jaron Hopkins and Dustin Thomas both made the Ballislife All American game. Granted, it's not McDonalds All American level, but you have to be a good player to make that game. Air Force and CSU do not have that kind of talent, and don't take that as a claim of guaranteeing a win.
 
BuffTE41 said:
We aren't saying those games are locks, we're saying you are undervaluing the talent on this team immensely. No way to know until the season I suppose, but just as a quick example. Jaron Hopkins and Dustin Thomas both made the Ballislife All American game. Granted, it's not McDonalds All American level, but you have to be a good player to make that game. Air Force and CSU do not have that kind of talent, and don't take that as a claim of guaranteeing a win.
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:yeahthat:

I just don't see how people can look at those two games and call one or both a loss at this point given the talent level differences and who is coming back vs. who is gone.
 
270913946_efa38ec3d8.jpg
 
'Tini said:
:yeahthat:

I just don't see how people can look at those two games and call one or both a loss at this point given the talent level differences and who is coming back vs. who is gone.
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what are our chances to win each game, in your view?
 
Darth Snow said:
what are our chances to win each game, in your view?
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1) November 8th - Baylor (Dallas) 50%
2) November 10th - Tennessee-Martin (Home) 95%
3) November 13th - Wyoming (Home) 90%
4) November 16th - Jackson State (Home) 95%
5) November 18th - Arkansas State (Home) 95%
6) November 21st - Santa Barbara (Home) 95%
7) November 24th - Harvard (Home) 70%
8) November 30th - Air Force (Away) 80%
9) December 3rd - Colorado State (Away) 75%
10) December 7th - Kansas (Home) 35%
11) December 13th - Elon (Home) 95%
12) December 21st - Oklahoma State (Las Vegas) 40%
13) December 28th - Georgia (Home) 90%
 
I think most people should be able to admit this is a tough schedule for CU and they could lose 4-5 games. Still, if Tad Boyle wants to take the team to the next level (Top 25 team, one of the top 2-3 teams in the PAC), that can not happen.
 
Darth Snow said:
I just agreed with the substance posted by Absinthe above. Can I incorporate it by reference?

here's my general statement/belief, restated: We are young, despite a lot of experience from a few starters. Very inexperienced guys will be playing key minutes against well coached, talented teams, often in hostile situations. Even if our guys are talented young players, there will be some hiccups, especially on the road and early.

Next, **** happens.

Finally, I'm a pessimistic asshole, so take the reasonable expectation and add a loss or two. See happens, ****.

That said, the lumps we take early will provide dividends down the road :nod:
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If we go 8-5, it is gonna be tough to make the dance. Unless that dividend is another season.
 
Jeez, 'Tini. It's a thread about what we think. Don't get your panties in a wad because others have a different opinion from yours. I happen to agree that CU should have a decent OOC, but I'm not about to try to convince anybody else of that. It's, just, like, your opinion, man.
 
Darth Snow said:
quoted for future generations. expound, please. your statement is unclear.
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Well are we basing it off of the probabilities I listed or based on models (like real time RPI) where they calculate the probabilities?

I guess to make it more clear, take someone who is a 80% free throw shooter. The probability of him making the first one is 80%, obviously. Now, if I remember my stat class correctly, to figure out the probability of him making both would be to multiply 80% * 80% to give you a 64% chance of both being made.

I think
 
'Tini said:
Well are we basing it off of the probabilities I listed or based on models (like real time RPI) where they calculate the probabilities?

I guess to make it more clear, take someone who is a 80% free throw shooter. The probability of him making the first one is 80%, obviously. Now, if I remember my stat class correctly, to figure out the probability of him making both would be to multiply 80% * 80% to give you a 64% chance of both being made.

I think
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So given your wildly generous 80% ish chance for winning each game individually, it is still only a 64% chance that CU wins both, and you are unable to comprehend how people can argue that we will be losing at least one of those games?

(note: even at a 70% chance to win each game individually, CU has less than a 50% chance of winning both games).
 
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