2019 NFL Draft Thread

[TSchekler]

If you want to move this to the Pub or if @Jens1893 thinks it should be combined with the general NFL thread, feel free.

What will the Broncos do? Elway is supposedly "smitten" with Drew Lock, but with needs on the OL, LB, CB, they should be in position to get an elite player at one of those positions.

Will @chipwich like the direction the Giants go? Supposedly, they are NOT really interested in Kyler Murray because he's small. Will they go with Haskins instead?

With Tannehill possibly out in Miami, what do they do; QB in this draft or go after Flacco/Foles? @White_Rabbit

Josh Jacobs is a DUDE and probably going to be RB1 when it's all said and done.

 

[White_Rabbit]

there were some rumors, who knows if they're based on anything and we don't even have the coach yet, that the higher ups really want to tank for a year and get a QB next year. I have seen Murray mocked to the Dolphins several times so who knows if there's anything to that. They also seemed to like Drew Lock at the senior bowl. I was kind of digging Daniel Jones for a bit thinking he was a mid round guy, now he's getting mocked to the Dolphins in the first so not sure on that.

I think the play is draft defense since we actually have some pieces there, sprinkle in some OL guys or WR and just tank until next year.

 

[DrunkRalphie]

How many Buffs make training camp rosters?

 

[TSchekler]

there were some rumors, who knows if they're based on anything and we don't even have the coach yet, that the higher ups really want to tank for a year and get a QB next year. I have seen Murray mocked to the Dolphins several times so who knows if there's anything to that. They also seemed to like Drew Lock at the senior bowl. I was kind of digging Daniel Jones for a bit thinking he was a mid round guy, now he's getting mocked to the Dolphins in the first so not sure on that.

I think the play is draft defense since we actually have some pieces there, sprinkle in some OL guys or WR and just tank until next year.

From all reports, Lock was the class of the Senior Bowl and it wasn't really all that close. Saw a bunch of tweets about Jones not having good practices and then being really awkward and standoffish in interviews, but then he played fairly well during the game I think. Of course, neither Murray or Haskins were there and Haskins seems to be the consensus QB1 in this draft. Murray feels like Lamar Jackson from last year, where teams don't want to take the risk on him early, but someone will take a later 1st round flier. Even in a QB-weak draft, it still feels like at least 4 guys get drafted in the 1st round.

 

[TSchekler]

How many Buffs make training camp rosters?

Drew Lewis, Evan Worthington, Travon McMillian, and Juwan Winfree are the probables, IMO. Javier Edwards, Nick Fisher and Gamboa are probably OTA/mini camp locks, but outside looking in for Training Camp.

 

[Buffsrock85]

No on drew lock! I’d have to look at the lists as I’m not great with names but there is plenty of defense in this draft to take. OL,DL, CB and then tank, tank, tank until you can get Trevor Lawrence.

 

[Bread]

Drew Lewis, Evan Worthington, Travon McMillian, and Juwan Winfree are the probables, IMO. Javier Edwards, Nick Fisher and Gamboa are probably OTA/mini camp locks, but outside looking in for Training Camp.

I think Drew Lewis because of his freakish Pro day #'s will get on a camp on that alone, plus reports from the bowl he went to were good. Juwann played very well in his bowl which will help him out a lot.

 

[White_Rabbit]

From all reports, Lock was the class of the Senior Bowl and it wasn't really all that close. Saw a bunch of tweets about Jones not having good practices and then being really awkward and standoffish in interviews, but then he played fairly well during the game I think. Of course, neither Murray or Haskins were there and Haskins seems to be the consensus QB1 in this draft. Murray feels like Lamar Jackson from last year, where teams don't want to take the risk on him early, but someone will take a later 1st round flier. Even in a QB-weak draft, it still feels like at least 4 guys get drafted in the 1st round.

I didn't even watch the senior bowl, but I'm really hesitant on Lock. Whenever accuracy is brought up as a possible issue, that seems like a huge red flag. Josh Allen being not a dumpster fire seems like it'll help a guy like Lock, but I'm still really hesitant to see a future top QB in Allen.

 

[TSchekler]

I didn't even watch the senior bowl, but I'm really hesitant on Lock. Whenever accuracy is brought up as a possible issue, that seems like a huge red flag. Josh Allen being not a dumpster fire seems like it'll help a guy like Lock, but I'm still really hesitant to see a future top QB in Allen.

Yeah Lock has some accuracy issues for sure, but his college comp percentage improved every year and he was around 63% his Senior year.

 

[White_Rabbit]

Yeah Lock has some accuracy issues for sure, but his college comp percentage improved every year and he was around 63% his Senior year.

I can't say I watched many or any Mizzou games this last year, but were they just running an Adam Gase 80% screens offense? His junior year he had fewer attempts and quite a lower completion %, but had way more yards and much higher Y/A.

I really haven't looked into him yet, so I might change my mind, but give me a weak armed accurate guy over cannon arm who doesn't know where it's going.

 

[Da Lama]

Lock = This year's Josh Allen (and not in a good way) in a QB class that's the absolute definition of mediocrity. Does anyone truly believe Haskins is franchise type QB? And I'll go ahead and put the over/under on Murray switching to baseball at 2.5 years. Dude is 5-8 170, no matter what OU S&C says.

 

[White_Rabbit]

Murray intrigues me the most this year, but yeah, if he weighs in at 5'8 170 that's just too small. If he weighs in at like 5'10 200, I'm interested. I think you gotta design an offense around him, though. Not just throw him into some run of the mill NFL offense.

 

[TSchekler]

Murray intrigues me the most this year, but yeah, if he weighs in at 5'8 170 that's just too small. If he weighs in at like 5'10 200, I'm interested. I think you gotta design an offense around him, though. Not just throw him into some run of the mill NFL offense.

I think that's the case for pretty much every QB coming out with the exception of one or two every so often. I'm not as concerned about Murray's height as much as his weight. If he weighs in at the combine at 170 lbs, there's just no chance. Lamar Jackson is considered too skinny/light and he was 216. Even Mayfield weight in at 215. If he is able to get to around 190 lbs and maintain speed/athleticism, things get intriguing in my opinion.

 

[MtnBuff]

If Jones goes to the right team that will put quality guys around him and some time to develop he could end up being the best QB in this draft. More than likely though he will end up on some team that throws him to the wolves and he ends up in panic mode.

 

[4BienemyTDs]

Lock = This year's Josh Allen (and not in a good way) in a QB class that's the absolute definition of mediocrity. Does anyone truly believe Haskins is franchise type QB? And I'll go ahead and put the over/under on Murray switching to baseball at 2.5 years. Dude is 5-8 170, no matter what OU S&C says.

This is easily the worst year ever, period!!!
Haskins cannot move in the pocket or on the run like Mahomes and thus he is not worthy of QB1. I like someone like Ian Book or Herbert next year better than anyone.
Draft Corners, ILB, and OL and roll with Keenum and clean up the defensive play.

 

[Buffsrock85]

This is easily the worst year ever, period!!!
Haskins cannot move in the pocket or on the run like Mahomes and thus he is not worthy of QB1. I like someone like Ian Book or Herbert next year better than anyone.
Draft Corners, ILB, and OL and roll with Keenum and clean up the defensive play.

Keenum is a ****ing disaster but I’d rather watch us suck with him than suck with a 1st round draft pick. Elway can’t pick QB’s, he can’t draft really at all but if it has to be a QB make it a top 5, obvious, anyone could make that pick and succeed QB.

 

[tante]

I didn't even watch the senior bowl, but I'm really hesitant on Lock. Whenever accuracy is brought up as a possible issue, that seems like a huge red flag. Josh Allen being not a dumpster fire seems like it'll help a guy like Lock, but I'm still really hesitant to see a future top QB in Allen.

How was Allen not a dumpster fire? More INTs than TDs, 52% completion percentage, 6.5 YPA. Those are all dumpster fire stats.

 

[AllStarBuffs]

If Elway is the lead decision maker on which QB to draft, the pick is going turn out to be a guaranteed bust

 

[TSchekler]

If Elway is the lead decision maker on which QB to draft, the pick is going turn out to be a guaranteed bust

Hot take!

 

[Medford M.]

Lock is going to be garbage.

 

[White_Rabbit]

How was Allen not a dumpster fire? More INTs than TDs, 52% completion percentage, 6.5 YPA. Those are all dumpster fire stats.

He went 5-6 as a starter and actually had a couple comeback wins. He also was really adept at running the ball which I'm not sure is really sustainable, but yeah.

Like I said, not sure I can squint and see future top QB, but I also figured he'd be a total dumpster fire which I define as Jamarcus Russell or Ryan Leaf level.

 

[manhattanbuf]

He went 5-6 as a starter and actually had a couple comeback wins. He also was really adept at running the ball which I'm not sure is really sustainable, but yeah.

Like I said, not sure I can squint and see future top QB, but I also figured he'd be a total dumpster fire which I define as Jamarcus Russell or Ryan Leaf level.

Buffalo’s defense was better than expected. In terms of offensive output, the Bills offense was one of the worst in the NFL (only the Jaguars and Cardinals were lower). As the starter for the bulk of the season, Allen didn’t really show himself improved over what he was at Wyoming. He basically just repeated his stat line with normal regression for playing against better players.

Granted, he doesn’t have the immaturity of Leaf or Russell; but, like them, you have a physically gifted athlete who will be extremely limited at this level. Given his positive demeanor and physical attributes, he’ll get a few shots to be a backup for quite a while.

 

[tante]

He went 5-6 as a starter and actually had a couple comeback wins. He also was really adept at running the ball which I'm not sure is really sustainable, but yeah.

Like I said, not sure I can squint and see future top QB, but I also figured he'd be a total dumpster fire which I define as Jamarcus Russell or Ryan Leaf level.

The Bills were 9-7 in 2017, daft Allen and are now 6-10 in 2018. You know who else had some come back wins and could run the ball....Tim Tebow.

 

[White_Rabbit]

Buffalo’s defense was better than expected. In terms of offensive output, the Bills offense was one of the worst in the NFL (only the Jaguars and Cardinals were lower). As the starter for the bulk of the season, Allen didn’t really show himself improved over what he was at Wyoming. He basically just repeated his stat line with normal regression for playing against better players.

Granted, he doesn’t have the immaturity of Leaf or Russell; but, like them, you have a physically gifted athlete who will be extremely limited at this level. Given his positive demeanor and physical attributes, he’ll get a few shots to be a backup for quite a while.

idk how I'm somehow defending Josh Allen, but what do you think of this stat line:

4-6 record, 47.5% completion, 7 TDs 14 INTs

what about this one for a 2nd year guy:

2-12 53.7% 8 TDs 13 INTs

here's a good one:

0-11, 52.9% 9 TDs 18 INTs

maybe a more recent one:

0-7 54.6% 5 TDs 7 INTs

I don't like Allen nor do I think he'll be anywhere near as good as some of those guys I just listed, but the idea that he's garbage and can't improve is questionable

 

[manhattanbuf]

idk how I'm somehow defending Josh Allen, but what do you think of this stat line:

4-6 record, 47.5% completion, 7 TDs 14 INTs

what about this one for a 2nd year guy:

2-12 53.7% 8 TDs 13 INTs

here's a good one:

0-11, 52.9% 9 TDs 18 INTs

maybe a more recent one:

0-7 54.6% 5 TDs 7 INTs

I don't like Allen nor do I think he'll be anywhere near as good as some of those guys I just listed, but the idea that he's garbage and can't improve is questionable

I use season long data. You sniping individual poor games does nothing for this discussion.

At Wyoming, Allen was a 56.2% career passer with a 2:1 TD:INT ratio, 7.8 yards per attempt, and 7.7 attempt yards per attempt.

Allen was a limited player against mediocre competition in college. The above stats aren’t anywhere in the ballpark for top QBs against mediocre/poor competition when you look back on them after successful NFL careers in the contemporary era (last 15 seasons).

Allen was drafted solely because of his physical gifts. Allen did not demonstrate improvement against mediocre competition in college. Check his outputs for yourself. As a professional, he showed regression because he was playing against better players.

He had a slightly worse than 1:1 TD:INT ratio, 6.5 yards per attempt, and 5.4 attempt yards per attempt.

Is it impossible for Allen to improve? No. But, as a betting man, I would not spend one penny backing Allen as a candidate to be a future successful starter in the NFL. He has done nothing to indicate that he fits the profile of a player who can execute at the level necessary in the passing game.

 

[MtnBuff]

He went 5-6 as a starter and actually had a couple comeback wins. He also was really adept at running the ball which I'm not sure is really sustainable, but yeah.

Like I said, not sure I can squint and see future top QB, but I also figured he'd be a total dumpster fire which I define as Jamarcus Russell or Ryan Leaf level.

Leaf, Russell, Lynch, etc. were giant bust. Allen so far is a dumpster fire.

Remember that Tim Tebow had a winning record and "led" a team to the playoffs and a playoff win. Nobody has wanted him as their QB since.

Allen does have a lot of raw physical talent but he showed very little to indicate he could convert that into being a decent NFL starter.

 

[JMBuffs]

Tscheck, nice job successfully starting this thread. Much needed!

Also, I hope that Elway is getting savvy and all this "Lock Love" is a smoke screen to drive up the value of #10 pick. Broncos need to trade down and stock up.

So many good Olineman and Secondary in this draft!

 

[onealcd]

Allen will be alright. Similar to Rosen, he didn’t have much on front on him and that’s going to hurt his learning during the season. He made some flat out amazing throws but had some off passes as well. The defense played better but they were also picking up a bunch of receivers that were getting cut by other teams to start the season, that doesn’t really seem like he was set up for success. A lot to improve on but hardly a terrible rookie season.

 

[TSchekler]

Allen will be alright. Similar to Rosen, he didn’t have much on front on him and that’s going to hurt his learning during the season. He made some flat out amazing throws but had some off passes as well. The defense played better but they were also picking up a bunch of receivers that were getting cut by other teams to start the season, that doesn’t really seem like he was set up for success. A lot to improve on but hardly a terrible rookie season.

As a passer he was terrible, as predicted. He made a handful of elite down field throws, but that kind of thing was never in question. The problem is that he’s never been a >60% passer and I just don’t think he can truly be successful in the NFL if he can’t have even slightly below average accuracy.

He won’t flame out like Paxton Lynch or anything, but he’ll be lucky to make it to a Blake Bortles level, IMO.

 

[White_Rabbit]

I use season long data. You sniping individual poor games does nothing for this discussion.

At Wyoming, Allen was a 56.2% career passer with a 2:1 TD:INT ratio, 7.8 yards per attempt, and 7.7 attempt yards per attempt.

Allen was a limited player against mediocre competition in college. The above stats aren’t anywhere in the ballpark for top QBs against mediocre/poor competition when you look back on them after successful NFL careers in the contemporary era (last 15 seasons).

Allen was drafted solely because of his physical gifts. Allen did not demonstrate improvement against mediocre competition in college. Check his outputs for yourself. As a professional, he showed regression because he was playing against better players.

He had a slightly worse than 1:1 TD:INT ratio, 6.5 yards per attempt, and 5.4 attempt yards per attempt.

Is it impossible for Allen to improve? No. But, as a betting man, I would not spend one penny backing Allen as a candidate to be a future successful starter in the NFL. He has done nothing to indicate that he fits the profile of a player who can execute at the level necessary in the passing game.

What? Those are season long stats. I'm well aware of what Allen did in college, I was comparing his first season in the NFL with other guys in their first taste of the NFL. Those guys that you apparently didn't read too closely were: John Elway, Steve Young, Troy Aikman, and Jared Goff.

So here are the other guys from last years class ******SEASON LONG STATS*********

Josh Rosen:

3-10 55.2% 5.8 YPA 11 TD 14 INT 138 rushing yards 0 TDs

Sam Darnold:

4-9 57.7% 6.9 YPA 17 TD 15 INT 138 rushing 1 TD

Josh Allen:

5-6 52.8% 6.5 YPA 10 TD 12 INT 631 rushing 8 TDs

Lamar Jackson:

6-1 58.2% 7.1 YPA 6 TDs 3 INT 695 rushing 5 TDs

The completion % is obviously worse than the other guys, but other than that, he doesn't look like he's all that much worse than those other guys, hence my extremely controversial earlier statement that he wasn't a complete dumpster fire. I'd venture a guess that 5 years from now, 1 of these guys will be really good, one a borderline starter, one holding up posterboards on the sideline, and one out of the NFL. I'd throw my money in on Darnold being the good one, but I don't honestly know.

Circling back to the topic of this thread, I don't like guys that have accuracy issues as their red flag like Drew Lock or Josh Allen. Guys don't suddenly learn to accurately throw the football, just like some pitchers never learn how to throw strikes.