Past expansion of the B1G says that they care about a few things: market expansion, academic prestige and football prestige. Of the 3, football prestige seems to be the least important to them as long as the resources and cultural fit seem to be in place. Although they definitely care about it.
Putting the ACC options to the side since I think that the B1G is having some buyer's remorse over the geographic isolation of USC/UCLA and want to balance things up now (they'll go after the ACC later), below is where the potential expansion targets compare with the last 4 additions (Maryland, Rutgers, UCLA, USC). Only AAU members are listed because the B1G has never added a non-AAU and never will unless it's Notre Dame.
The 3 basic things I'm looking at are: 1. MSA (metropolitan statistical area) to determine whether it delivers media and likely alums/donors/applicants; 2. ARWU (Academic Ranking of World Universities) to determine whether the school is going to enhance academic prestige and drive collaborations and grants as well as attract more international applicants for undergrad and grad studies (Top 100 are schools which add prestige); and, 3. Football prestige, for which I'm using All-Time FBS Wins since the B1G is so much about its history.
Other things modify this, of course. We could look at recruiting grounds. National following. Number of alumni from candidate in the existing B1G footprint. Prestige from other sports. National championships, national awards and historic games or rivalries with other B1G members. There's a lot of stuff that can adjust this, but I think these have been strong drivers (and it's a lot easier to find comparative data).
Here are the candidates from the Pac-12 that would help with the geographic isolation issue:
I think Washington jumps out as the clear #1 candidate here. Metro is almost the same as Cal/Stanford but they don't split it and also have a lot more fan support within that metro. Academically, they're only ranked behind Cal & Stanford and would be among the very top tier in the B1G. In football, the most wins of everyone to go along with the most PAC conference championships after USC, Rose Bowls, tons of All-Americans and a couple claimed national championships.
I would also think it would be hard for the B1G to pass on the academic prestige of Cal and Stanford. To put it in perspective of how elite this is, Stanford (2), Cal (5), UCLA (13) and Washington (17) are the only universities in the Top 25 that play FBS football (Michigan comes in next at #28). But they're less than ideal in other ways. Splits a metro that really only needs 1 team in the market, low fan support, etc. But I just can't imagine not picking these schools given the thought process of university presidents. There's enough there on other criteria to make them a no-brainer due to the academic prestige.
Colorado looks like the next best to me. Best remaining market. Best remaining academic prestige. Best remaining football history (wins, plus all the hardware). Also brings a ratings-driving rivalry with current B1G member Nebraska along with a bit of history with the "Miracle at Michigan" game. CU draws a lot of its students from & has a high percentage of its alumni residing in the Chicagoland metro. It's a damn good fit. CU is actually a close equivalent to Maryland.
... but Nike. Seriously. The Nike Duck marketing and PR machine has had them all over everything for years. They buy their way into sports bars, local radio gamecasts, every ESPN and other network or CFB / CBB sponsor promo, etc. There's also been a lot of success between the lines the past decades, so it's not empty marketing - just overblown. Academics are barely there. Program prestige is barely there. Home market's not there. But the national following and brand they've built along with having the heated traditional rivalry with Washington makes them a lock, imo.
After that, we've got Utah and Arizona. Both have a ton going for them, but they're among the lowest on academics (still absolutely top schools in the world, but it's a tough room). They also have the worst home markets. UA can sort of claim the state and that massive population. Similarly, Utah can claim a fast-growing state and has some reach into smaller near-in metros from border states which don't have a P5 team. But if we grant that, we also should acknowledge that each school has the #2 following in its own home state and in the largest metro/most loyal demographic behind ASU and BYU, respectively.
Bottom Line: If the B1G expands now I think they go to 20 and CU gets shafted. However, I think that the smarter play would be to choose CU and either Cal or Stanford if they're looking to maximize markets and revenue. If the expansion goes to 22, CU is going to be in.
But I'm calling my shot that we see the ULTIMATE BIG TEN HAM MOVE: expand to 24 teams with all 7 of the Pac-12 AAUs plus Notre Dame.
Putting the ACC options to the side since I think that the B1G is having some buyer's remorse over the geographic isolation of USC/UCLA and want to balance things up now (they'll go after the ACC later), below is where the potential expansion targets compare with the last 4 additions (Maryland, Rutgers, UCLA, USC). Only AAU members are listed because the B1G has never added a non-AAU and never will unless it's Notre Dame.
The 3 basic things I'm looking at are: 1. MSA (metropolitan statistical area) to determine whether it delivers media and likely alums/donors/applicants; 2. ARWU (Academic Ranking of World Universities) to determine whether the school is going to enhance academic prestige and drive collaborations and grants as well as attract more international applicants for undergrad and grad studies (Top 100 are schools which add prestige); and, 3. Football prestige, for which I'm using All-Time FBS Wins since the B1G is so much about its history.
Other things modify this, of course. We could look at recruiting grounds. National following. Number of alumni from candidate in the existing B1G footprint. Prestige from other sports. National championships, national awards and historic games or rivalries with other B1G members. There's a lot of stuff that can adjust this, but I think these have been strong drivers (and it's a lot easier to find comparative data).
| Newest B1G Members | Metro Size | ARWU Rank | FBS Wins Rank |
| Maryland | 20 (Baltimore) / 6 (Washington DC) | 50 | 40 |
| Rutgers | 1 | 101-150 | 42 |
| UCLA | 2 | 13 | 61 |
| USC | 2 | 53 | 11 |
Here are the candidates from the Pac-12 that would help with the geographic isolation issue:
| P12 Candidate Universities | Metro Size | ARWU Rank | FBS Wins Rank |
| Arizona | 53 | 101-150 | 60 |
| Cal | 13 | 5 | 36 |
| Colorado | 19 | 51 | 30 |
| Oregon | 25 | 301-400 | 34 |
| Stanford | 13 | 2 | 41 |
| Utah | 46 | 101-150 | 32 |
| Washington | 15 | 17 | 18 |
I think Washington jumps out as the clear #1 candidate here. Metro is almost the same as Cal/Stanford but they don't split it and also have a lot more fan support within that metro. Academically, they're only ranked behind Cal & Stanford and would be among the very top tier in the B1G. In football, the most wins of everyone to go along with the most PAC conference championships after USC, Rose Bowls, tons of All-Americans and a couple claimed national championships.
I would also think it would be hard for the B1G to pass on the academic prestige of Cal and Stanford. To put it in perspective of how elite this is, Stanford (2), Cal (5), UCLA (13) and Washington (17) are the only universities in the Top 25 that play FBS football (Michigan comes in next at #28). But they're less than ideal in other ways. Splits a metro that really only needs 1 team in the market, low fan support, etc. But I just can't imagine not picking these schools given the thought process of university presidents. There's enough there on other criteria to make them a no-brainer due to the academic prestige.
Colorado looks like the next best to me. Best remaining market. Best remaining academic prestige. Best remaining football history (wins, plus all the hardware). Also brings a ratings-driving rivalry with current B1G member Nebraska along with a bit of history with the "Miracle at Michigan" game. CU draws a lot of its students from & has a high percentage of its alumni residing in the Chicagoland metro. It's a damn good fit. CU is actually a close equivalent to Maryland.
... but Nike. Seriously. The Nike Duck marketing and PR machine has had them all over everything for years. They buy their way into sports bars, local radio gamecasts, every ESPN and other network or CFB / CBB sponsor promo, etc. There's also been a lot of success between the lines the past decades, so it's not empty marketing - just overblown. Academics are barely there. Program prestige is barely there. Home market's not there. But the national following and brand they've built along with having the heated traditional rivalry with Washington makes them a lock, imo.
After that, we've got Utah and Arizona. Both have a ton going for them, but they're among the lowest on academics (still absolutely top schools in the world, but it's a tough room). They also have the worst home markets. UA can sort of claim the state and that massive population. Similarly, Utah can claim a fast-growing state and has some reach into smaller near-in metros from border states which don't have a P5 team. But if we grant that, we also should acknowledge that each school has the #2 following in its own home state and in the largest metro/most loyal demographic behind ASU and BYU, respectively.
Bottom Line: If the B1G expands now I think they go to 20 and CU gets shafted. However, I think that the smarter play would be to choose CU and either Cal or Stanford if they're looking to maximize markets and revenue. If the expansion goes to 22, CU is going to be in.
But I'm calling my shot that we see the ULTIMATE BIG TEN HAM MOVE: expand to 24 teams with all 7 of the Pac-12 AAUs plus Notre Dame.
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