Bracketology/Bubble Watch 2021

[torero]

We don't have a bracketology thread for this year, but I had to create one just to discuss how ridiculous the NET rankings can be in this Covid season. Colgate, 2nd place in the Patriot League at 11-1 is 9th in the Net Ranking. KenPom has them at 92, but that's probably generous too. They've played a grand total of 3 teams, each 4 times, including a 4 in a row against Holy Cross.

 

[Buffsbball]

Colgate might be the 9th best toothpaste brand but not basketball team

 

[Denver_sc]

We don't have a bracketology thread for this year, but I had to create one just to discuss how ridiculous the NET rankings can be in this Covid season. Colgate, 2nd place in the Patriot League at 11-1 is 9th in the Net Ranking. KenPom has them at 92, but that's probably generous too. They've played a grand total of 3 teams, each 4 times, including a 4 in a row against Holy Cross.

So do you have them on the 3 seed line or the 4 seed line?

 

[slider]

Lunardi has us as a 7 seed playing North Carolina.

CBS as a 9

 

[Buffsbball]

Lunardi and CBS had us at 7 and 9 before the USC and UCLA wins as well. Like what do we need to do to move up? No way we are 40-45th best team in America right now.

 

[torero]

So do you have them on the 3 seed line or the 4 seed line?

3 of course. That 4 game win streak against Holy Cross, Holy Cross, Holy Cross and Holy Cross is really impressive.

 

[Alfred91]

Lunardi and CBS had us at 7 and 9 before the USC and UCLA wins as well. Like what do we need to do to move up? No way we are 40-45th best team in America right now.

That bracket CBS had us in was perfect though. First round against BYU, second round likely against Ohio State. I would take it.

 

[Buffsbball]

Just checked Lunardi hasn't updated bracketology since 2/26 so before the UCLA game. So hopefully we go up to a 6 or a 5. Actually would probably rather be 6 v 11 than the 5 v 12 game.

 

[Robert Sorell]

Buffs high is #2, Low is #9 on bracketmatrix

The #2 comes from CBR which has a lot of the highest/lowest seeds for individual teams



Out of the 100 brackets showing today, about a half dozen have Buffs as a #9, the #2 is an outlier, next highest is a #5.

 

[Robert Sorell]

Other things I'm watching.

Colorado State is the last team in for Lunardi. I hope the Rams get in and I hope they pull off a first round upset.

The down year for the bluebloods is interesting. Duke, Michigan State, Syracuse, Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina, and UConn, are all within shouting distance of one side or the other of the bubble.

Provided we end up 3rd or better in the conference, Stanford winning a couple of Pac12 tourney games and getting in would be good for the conference.

 

[dwyermj]

Buffs high is #2, Low is #9 on bracketmatrix

The #2 comes from CBR which has a lot of the highest/lowest seeds for individual teams



Out of the 100 brackets showing today, about a half dozen have Buffs as a #9, the #2 is an outlier, next highest is a #5.

Here is the distribution (last update on the 28th, oldest brackets as of 26th)

2​	3​	4​	5​	6​	7​	8​	9​
1​	0​	1​	9​	24​	46​	13​	6​

And the distribution of his "Tier 1" bracketologists (he has tracked them for over 3 years and they have been better than average)

5​	6​	7​	8​	9​
1​	9​	22​	3​	1​

I'd guess we have to win the pac 12 tourney to have a chance at a 5 or better seed but it will be interesting to see how the committee views our good wins vs. bad losses. We probably have the strangest quadrant breakdown this year outside of Creighton.

	Quad 1	Quad 2	Quad 3	Quad 4
Colorado	3-4	7-0	6-3	3-0
Creighton	4-2	7-1	2-3	4-0

 

[FM-Buff]

It's hard to argue with a 6 or a 7 seed at this point.

 

[Denver_sc]

Buffs high is #2, Low is #9 on bracketmatrix

The #2 comes from CBR which has a lot of the highest/lowest seeds for individual teams



Out of the 100 brackets showing today, about a half dozen have Buffs as a #9, the #2 is an outlier, next highest is a #5.

I am not going after you because I know you're just the messenger, but I think a 9 seed is absurd for the Buffs. That basically means the Buffs are the 33rd-36th best team in the country when pretty much every advanced metric puts them as a top 20 team.

 

[4BienemyTDs]

Lunardi has us as a 7 seed playing North Carolina.

CBS as a 9

Not voting down your post, just do not want to ever play a team like UNC cause they have a high level of talent

 

[BIGEZ321]

It's the Dance. Every team is going to have talent. If we dont have our A game, any of the teams will send us home.

 

[crosby87]

Not voting down your post, just do not want to ever play a team like UNC cause they have a high level of talent

They can’t shoot tho. Big game at Syracuse tonight.....Seton Hall need to beat UCONN Wednesday or they are out.

 

[King_George_XXIV_Rules]

Not voting down your post, just do not want to ever play a team like UNC cause they have a high level of talent

He set us up for a revenge match against the 'heels, the 1997 tournament with Chauncey where we beat IU in round 1 and lost to UNC in round 2.

 

[crosby87]

UNC look terrible.

 

[Medford M.]

Remember when Rutgers was ranked? Lol

Beat by 21 to in Lincoln.

 

[crosby87]

Yeah and 9-10 in conf. I don’t think any team should ever get an automatic bid under .500 in conference.

 

[crosby87]

Buddy Buckets is an interesting player. He chucks it but has a feel for big shots. Will be play in the NBA? Did any of you have fathers old enough to be your grandfathers? That must be kinda weird.

 

[hokiehead]

UNC look terrible.

"soft" is the word that most ACC fans are using to describe them. I think we can take them

 

[FM-Buff]

Lunardi has CU at a 5-seed playing Xavier/Georgia Tech. Bracket Matrix has CU at a 7-seed.

Also, we’re getting dangerously close to playing CSU in the first round. I know a lot still has to happen but that’s not a first round matchup I’m interested in.

 

[Alfred91]

Lunardi has CU at a 5-seed playing Xavier/Georgia Tech. Bracket Matrix has CU at a 7-seed.

Also, we’re getting dangerously close to playing CSU in the first round. I know a lot still has to happen but that’s not a first round matchup I’m interested in.

I don't know what to make of CSU. They've won a lot of games, but the MWC hasn't played a lot of OOC games, so I don't know of the conference is any good or not.

 

[FM-Buff]

I don't know what to make of CSU. They've won a lot of games, but the MWC hasn't played a lot of OOC games, so I don't know of the conference is any good or not.

I get what you're saying and I am confident we beat them. But I just don't want to play a rival in the 1st round. Weird **** happens.

 

[King_George_XXIV_Rules]

I don't know what to make of CSU. They've won a lot of games, but the MWC hasn't played a lot of OOC games, so I don't know of the conference is any good or not.

I've watched a few CSU games. They've got a few good players, but aren't very deep. Roddy is their best player and a good rebounder, he's like a shorter Battey but a better scorer than Battey. He bullies his way through MWC opponents and is their go-to guy. They have a couple outside shooters who can knock down the 3. They can be really streaky and score a lot of points quickly when they get hot. I think we'd match up well against them with tight perimeter D and guarding Roddy to limit his production.

 

[Buffsbball]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Up to a 5 on Lunardis. This now includes the UCLA game

 

[Kronah]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Up to a 5 on Lunardis. This now includes the UCLA game

Oklahoma St. would be fun for the second game.

 

[SINKRATZ]

6 weeks ago Illinois was 9-5 and now they’re maybe a #1 seed. This season is weird.

 

[Buffsbball]

If we can finish in the 4-6 seed range, I'd be amped. We wouldn't have to play a top 2 seed until the sweet 16. If we are 7-10 we'd have to in round 2. I feel like there is a lot of parity after the top 5-6 teams this year.