Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by JimmyBuff, Sep 30, 2013.
curious how this impacts where Texass thinks it needs to be ....
will the new AD be happy with the Big 12 (10) ?
Bruce Feldman is now talking about how a USC source told him the Kiffin move have them a two month head start on Texas. Writing is on the wall for Mack.
Mack is dead man walking....
Dodds was the main stumbling block for UT to go in a new direction.
LHN is an impediment to hiring a coach since the media time commitment makes it more attractive to the Rick Neuheisal types and less attractive to the Nick Saban types. If a politician like Mack Brown didn't like it, then most coaches won't either.
There is also the issue of being in a lesser conference that has awful academic reputations - a big reason UT said "never" to the SEC and liked the Big 12 concept (CU, KU, ISU, aTm, Mizzou and NU were all members - NU since dropped by AAU). Now UT sits in a conference where it is 1 of only 3 AAU members.
What could this mean for the Pac-12? Will UT look to make a move?
1. LHN could be rolled in as the regional network for Texas while maintaining their ESPN earnings. It would actually be an ESPN-driven deal.
2. AAU members in the Pac-12: Zona, Cal, CU, Furd, Oregon, UCLA, USC, Washington. http://www.aau.edu/about/article.aspx?id=5476
bricks are starting to fall
Rick Barnes can probably begin brushing up his resume as well.
Not sure Scott would allow ESPN into the P12 network. That's a complicated issue.
F*ck That Sh*t!!!
Texas isn't coming to the Pac 12 and the new coach will deal with LHN just fine.
Business is business and money is money, but I was left with a sense that Larry Scott saw what UT was about during the last round of negotiations and would be reluctant to accept anything but a contrite (in contractual terms) Texas into the conference.
I've yet to see anybody give me a reason where Texass can feasibly move to the Pac 12 right now. They signed a decade long grant of rights for their TV revenue. That means unless enough members vote to dissolve the conference (which there aren't, BU, KU, KSU and ISU will never allow it), Texas' TV money belongs to the Big 12. That means they are absolutely worthless financially (along with OU, OSU, Ttech) to the Pac 12 because expansion is only about TV revenue. They ain't going anwhere.
allowing ESPN to own part of the P12 network would be a fundamental change from the P12 network's core values. Unless it's a deal where Texas basically forfeits its share to ESPN... but even then, would ESPN agree to the P12 network hierarchy etc?
You and I agree on this.
But is ESPN now the owner of those rights rather than the conference? http://outkickthecoverage.com/espn-texas-contract-for-longhorn-network.php
Yeah...this makes me nervous about Boyle if he has another great year and Texas backs up the money truck.
Oliver Luck being mentioned as one of the lead candidates. It'd be interesting to see if he'd want to take a different position on realignment given the potential impact on his alma mater (though he is also a Texas Law grad). Will also depend on whether there actually is an out in the B12 GoR and how litigious Baylor wants to get.
Unless the Big 12 allows Texas to have their media rights back, Texas isn't going anywhere.
ESPN owns the LHN, but that is only tier 3 TV rights. The Big 12 owns tier 1 and tier 2 TV rights, which is where the grant of rights exists. The LHN is actually the simple part of the equation.
I suppose if they really wanted to, Texas could still move to a different conference. But any TV revenue (outside of the LHN) they made from the Pac-12 would go straight back to the Big 12.
Where there's a will and so forth. I'm sure a lawyer will get them out of the grant of rights thing. Look at what we were supposed to pay and what we got away with.
UT messed themselves up completely with their TV rights situation. They were so convinved that the LHN was going to be the pot of gold that they sold their souls to the rest of the B12 to get it, now the devil is calling in his chips.
No way in the world does Iowa State, KSU, Baylor, TT, TCU, Kansas let Texas slip off to the PAC and leave them holding the bag. A number of those schools know that if Texas leaves they might as well turn out the lights because the B12 will be dead as a TV power and they have scarce other options to replace the revenues. Long term they become much more like C-USA or the MWC than a major conference power when the TV money is up for discussion.
At the same time the PAC doesn't let UT have it's own little ESPN corner. Either they join the PAC and share and contribute as a member or they don't join. The only way this wouldn't be the case is if ESPN has had enough of the LHN, Texas can get out of their B12 deal (highly unlikely,) and Larry Scott can manuver the PAC12 network as a whole into a partnership with ESPN giving the PAC the door to national coverage as a part of the ESPN deal with the carriers going forward. I just don't see this happening.
Technically the LHN is a pot of gold, UT is getting their ESPN payoff regardless, its just all of the intangibles that they lost out on, and now they've added yet another in-state school to the B12 to create more political roadblocks to being able to bail out of the increasingly regional league. B12 could get even more underwhelming if say Bob Stoops manages to land the USC job.
Texas is making almost $40 million annually in TV money, between the $25 million they get in Big 12 money and the $15 million they get from the LHN. Sounds like a veritable pot of gold to me. Larry Scott can't even broker a deal with DirecTV - why on earth would you think he could broker some kind of deal to turn the LHN into a regional deal with the Pac 12?
As long as they can hold ESPN to paying that chunk of money they are solid financially. It does however lock them into the B12 making it almost impossible to move. It is a good deal on the surface with the money but has some negatives in terms of ongoing flexibility.
There is also the question of what happens down the road when the LHN deal is up for renewal. I don't think they will get anything close to the same deal at that time. ESPN has had a hard time selling the channel. And I don't think it is on Direct either unless something happened I didn't see.
Does ESPN have piece of the SEC Network?
Pretty sure the LHN is a ridiculously long contract term though, doesn't it run for 20 years? ESPN may have some outs though if the channel continues to be a dog. However the deal does give ESPN a ton of leverage in "suggesting" how UT should move, and may allow them to broker a realignment deal to the maximum benefit of the Mouse House...either to strongarm them towards the SEC, or to win concessions / equity stake from the P12.
Pretty sure they own the SEC network lock stock and barrel.
Doubt it. These look to be a lot more binding, plus in our case, the rest of the conference was telling us to not let the door hit our backside on the way out. If UT (OU, OSU and TTU) leave that means conference oblivion for the remaining schools. They will not broker a deal in that case.
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