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Buffs' free throw conversion rate is troubling

Will Colorado win 20 games this year?

  • Yes

    Votes: 13 54.2%
  • Ha.

    Votes: 11 45.8%

  • Total voters
    24

Justin M Guerriero

Club Member
Club Member
The 2016-17 Colorado Buffaloes have had an interesting non conference performance so far this year. Head coach Tad Boyle has called his team "overrated," and he's named the Buffs' 72-58 loss to CSU at the Keg on Nov 30 the worst loss in his tenure as CU's head coach. Finally, he labeled Colorado's recent win over Fort Hays State as the "worst win" that he's seen during his time with the Buffaloes.

So needless to say, it's been an interesting season. Something that hovers above all the inconsistencies that have defined the 9-3 Buffs so far this year has been free throw shooting. In Tad Boyle's first year at CU, the Buffs ranked fifth nationally in free throw shooting. The team knocked down 77.8 of its shots from the charity stripe that year.

In his sophomore season at CU, Boyle's Buffaloes shot .691 from the free throw line, but went on to win the Pac-12 Tourney as well as making it to the third round of the NCAA Tournament in March, eventually losing to Baylor.

The Buffs regressed a smidgen the next season, making 68.6 percent of its free throws in 2012-13. However, in 13-14, 14-15 and 15-16, the Buffaloes as a team posted a FT percentage of higher than 70 in all three seasons.

Now, the Buffs are dealing with a .696 free throw conversion rate. If the charity stripe woes continue, the 2016-17 Buffaloes could easily turn out to be Boyle's most inefficient free throw shooting squad that he has coached at CU.

The Buffs' .696 mark ranks 162nd nationally for D1 basketball squads. Notre Dame currently leads the nation with 85.6 percent of its 209 foul shots going in the basket. The Fighting Irish have missed just 30 FTs this year.

As I'm sure we all raised our eyebrows to, the Buffs made just 11-of-22 free throws in their narrow win at Air Force. Versus CSU, the Buffaloes made just under 55 percent of their free throws, missing 14 in the loss.

Look at Xavier Johnson for a second. He's shooting .704 from the Ft line, a bit better than the team average. But boy, has he had to work up to that. As a freshman, he shot .561 and the next year he shot .613. In '14-15, he got it up to .645, so the guy has been steadily improving during his CU career but the team around him continues to struggle.

With the exception of Josh Fortune. He's a great foul shooter and has made nearly 90 percent of his attempted free throws this year. Derrick White is next on the team, owning a near 80 percent make rate.

The fist of the new year on January 1 will feature the beginning of Pac-12 play for the Buffs, who travel to Utah that day and have following road contests vs. Arizona State and Arizona.

I'm somewhat afraid that the team won't turn its FT woes around and thus will finish the year with a worse than 70 percent conversion rate. Hope I'm wrong. Thoughts? Am I making too big a deal out of this?
 
In other words, the Buffs are in the top half of D1 on FT shooting %.

I haven't checked, but we seem to be getting to the line at a high rate (which is a much, much more important stat).

My concern is with clutch FTs. Buffs have been missing in end-game situations. That's a problem.
 
Don't know how so many people think we won't reach 20 wins. I don't think we're a tourney team but 20 wins isn't that difficult. 10-3 non-conference, 8 or 9 wins conference, 1 win in the Pac-12 tourney, and then the NIT.
 
In other words, the Buffs are in the top half of D1 on FT shooting %.

I haven't checked, but we seem to be getting to the line at a high rate (which is a much, much more important stat).

My concern is with clutch FTs. Buffs have been missing in end-game situations. That's a problem.

To answer your question, Colorado is #27 in Free Throw Attempts. So, yes we are getting to line an awful lot, which is good news.
 
@Jeric

20 regular season wins - yes/no
I think we win 19 in the regular season, 1 in the Pac-12 tourney, or at least that's where I set my expectiation. It's possible we could win more, this team isn't incapable of improving, just how I see it at the moment. My point was how 8 out of 10 people (at the time) said "ha!" to winning 20 games this year, when all that would require is 9 conference wins and a Pac-12 tourney win and the possibility of postseason play in that scenario, which I was surprised so many people didn't think was possible.
 
The important point to me is that poor FT shooting indicates, to me anyway, lack of focus.
 
Don't know how so many people think we won't reach 20 wins. I don't think we're a tourney team but 20 wins isn't that difficult. 10-3 non-conference, 8 or 9 wins conference, 1 win in the Pac-12 tourney, and then the NIT.
Certainly your projection could be accurate. Although your numbers add up to 19 or 20 wins before the NIT - which is exactly the point, getting to 20 could be a challenge.

Couple of concerns I have. First, inconsistent play (both during games and against different opponents), if it continues. I fear we will play poorly at times and lose to conference opponents we could / should beat. We may also play well against good teams and lose. Overall the odds are that inconsistency will drag the record down.

Second, I had thought (as a number of posts this Fall have suggested) that getting into the NIT was simple for a decent team that failed to make the NCAAs. Couple years ago it became clear that many of the 32 slots in the NIT are automatic, and competition is tight among the many teams that "just missed the cut" for NCAAs. Thus we wound up with a lackluster and embarrassing showing in the CBI. So can't assume we've got a lock on postseason, with NIT as a backup option to NCAA. Have to focus on getting into the NCAAs, or there may be no post-season.
 
Wasn't the point of what I said at all.

My apologies. Just tired of everyone (not including you in this statement now) writing the team off. All off-season, the entire damn fan base/media/everyone said "we won't know what we have until conference play". This is still true. We **** the bed against CSU. We beat Xavier. Because I don't have this bizarre infatuation with CSU that a large chunk of this fanbase has, those things even out in my world. One is a ****ty loss, the other is a damn impressive win. We're exactly where I thought the team would be. Have we looked worse at times than we should? Yeah, but once again - everyone said we won't know what this team is capable of until conference play rolls around.

I'm standing by my prediction that we dance.
 
My apologies. Just tired of everyone (not including you in this statement now) writing the team off. All off-season, the entire damn fan base/media/everyone said "we won't know what we have until conference play". This is still true. We **** the bed against CSU. We beat Xavier. Because I don't have this bizarre infatuation with CSU that a large chunk of this fanbase has, those things even out in my world. One is a ****ty loss, the other is a damn impressive win. We're exactly where I thought the team would be. Have we looked worse at times than we should? Yeah, but once again - everyone said we won't know what this team is capable of until conference play rolls around.

I'm standing by my prediction that we dance.

Yep. I'm actually feeling very good right now about how CU is positioned and where we'll finish in the Pac-12 standings.
 
Yep. I'm actually feeling very good right now about how CU is positioned and where we'll finish in the Pac-12 standings.

I agree. My biggest concern though is that the PAC has one of those years where 7 or 8 teams are within a game or two of each other in conference. If that happens it will be hard to overcome the RPI hurdle that the conference has dug. Need to have a distinct 4 tiers or so, and avoid more than 1 loss to teams in the bottom tier, while picking off a win against a UCLA or Arizona (or both!)
 
I agree. My biggest concern though is that the PAC has one of those years where 7 or 8 teams are within a game or two of each other in conference. If that happens it will be hard to overcome the RPI hurdle that the conference has dug. Need to have a distinct 4 tiers or so, and avoid more than 1 loss to teams in the bottom tier, while picking off a win against a UCLA or Arizona (or both!)
That's my fear as well. Given the rebounding and FT struggles, I see CU ripe for a road loss to a Wazzou, Washington, Oregon St and/or Arizona St, which will be very damaging to their tournament hopes.
 
Absolutely cannot lose to OSU in conference play. That's my fear. PAC-12 play this year is a minefield of potentially horrible losses.
 
Absolutely cannot lose to OSU in conference play. That's my fear. PAC-12 play this year is a minefield of potentially horrible losses.
Only having one game a piece with UofA and UCLA aint going to help our RPI either.
 
Only having one game a piece with UofA and UCLA aint going to help our RPI either.

Only get UA once, too.

The big thing for our resume will be to take care of business against the bottom and then outperform Cal, Furd and Utah with head-to-head resume comparisons.

UCLA, USC, Oregon and Arizona look like tourney locks. Hopefully we crash that Top 4 party, but if not we absolutely need to be #5.
 
OSU is ranked 346 out of 351 in RPI :eek:

What an embarrassment to the conference, it looks like they've given up on the season already. Hard to believe after the nice season they had last year.
 
Absolutely cannot lose to OSU in conference play. That's my fear. PAC-12 play this year is a minefield of potentially horrible losses.
Only having one game a piece with UofA and UCLA aint going to help our RPI either.

This is why the CSU game worries me. Hopefully its the only bad loss we have.

Assuming they beat EWU I won't complain about 10-3. There has been some borderline apathetic play so far this season though.
 
This is why the CSU game worries me. Hopefully its the only bad loss we have.

Assuming they beat EWU I won't complain about 10-3. There has been some borderline apathetic play so far this season though.

Real positive from the Xavier and Texas games shows how capable they are when they decide it's a big game.
 
Real positive from the Xavier and Texas games shows how capable they are when they decide it's a big game.

Agreed and I'd put the 2nd half of the ND game in there to. That they can hang with good teams anywhere they go is not a surprise, that should be expected from this group. The surprise is how bad they've looked against teams they should be running out of the gym.
 
I voted yes. I believe this team will beat Eastern Washington and go at least 10-8 in Pac 12 play.

But I'm worried about making the Dance given the RPI situation both for CU and the Pac, I'm not convinced that gets us in. BUT, @Buffnik and @Goose follow the national landscape closer than me, so I'm trying to ride their optimism coat-tails.
 
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