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College Hotline - My AP top-25 football ballot: Alabama is the new No. 1, Texas and...

Discussion in 'CU Buffs Newsroom' started by RSSBot, Sep 6, 2016.

  1. RSSBot

    RSSBot News Junkie

    Jul 8, 2005
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    (Credit: Austin American-Statesman)

    The first in-season ballot of 2016 is below. It plays off my preseason ballot, which was a projection of how everything will shake out, and makes adjustments based on results where applicable.

    There have been several major changes, but the ballot cannot be wholly results-oriented because not every team played a meaningful opponent.

    In those instances, preseason guesswork unfortunately remains. Ohio State and Michigan are two prominent examples: My sense is that both teams deserve placement near the top of the ballot, although Bowling Green and Hawaii hardly provided resistance.

    It will be several weeks before we have enough quality games to compile a ballot that’s completely based on results. But because of the stellar opening weekend, we’re further along in the process than usual.

    *** In my view, Alabama’s victory over USC was the most impressive win of the weekend. As a result, the Crimson Tide jumped into the No. 1 spot, replacing Ohio State (my pick to win the national title, and hence my preseason No. 1).

    But that could very well be a temporary position for the Tide — it depends, to some extent, on USC’s performance. If the Trojans stumble again, it would devalue Alabama’s win and force a reassessment.

    *** You’ll note that the top-eight teams on the ballot all played marquee opponents, not cupcakes. The rankings are based on my view of the quality of the individual win — Alabama over USC being the best, followed closely by Texas over Notre Dame.

    (Yes, I gave serious consideration to putting the Longhorns in the top spot. To use my own example: You might think Ohio State is better than Texas, but there’s no way to argue that Ohio State has a better result than Texas.)

    *** I went back and forth on Florida State and Clemson, finally settling on the Seminoles in the No. 3 spot. Admittedly, that’s a guess, because we don’t know which opponent, Ole Miss or Auburn, is better at this point.

    *** The exception to the run of winners at the top of the ballot is Notre Dame, which lost in double OT at Texas but nonetheless deserves a lofty position — in my view, that was a high-quality game matching two very good teams.

    Losing on the road in 2OT to a quality opponent is not grounds for removing the Irish from the top portion of the ballot, when only a handful of teams can claim victories over a quality opponent.

    *** Houston was undeniably impressive in handling Oklahoma, but I’m not as sold on the Sooners as most: They were No. 3 in the AP preseason poll but No. 11 in my preseason ballot. As a result, Houston was slotted in the 5-hole.

    *** Once we account for the teams with marquee victories, the guesswork truly begins with Ohio State, Michigan, TCU, Washington and Stanford in the No. 9 – 13 spots — all teams that I believe are top shelf but didn’t record substantive results.

    Those will become available starting in Week Three, which has a set of terrific matchups. (Sept. 10 is devoid of marquee games, unfortunately.)

    *** Readers of this space know that I don’t necessarily punish teams that lose in a given week, that it all depends on the competition:

    We learn much more about a particular team’s worthiness, so to speak, if it loses a close game to a quality opponent than if it beats a creampuff by 50.

    That’s why UCLA and Ole Miss, for example, are higher on the ballot than Louisville and Iowa.

    *** We’ll continue to tweak the ballot as the weeks unfold and the meaningful results roll in.

    In some cases, as with Texas, there will be dramatic moves up or down the ballot. That approach is encouraged by the Associated Press in its voting guidelines and is the best way to work through the guesswork and bias that form the basis of the preseason polls.

    Note: The number next to each represents its placement on my preseason ballot, for comparative purposes.

    1. Alabama (4)
    2. Texas (22)
    3. Florida State (3)
    4. Clemson (5)
    5. Houston (12)
    6. Notre Dame (6)
    7. Wisconsin (NR)
    8. Texas A&M (25)
    9. Ohio State (1)
    10. Michigan (8)
    11. TCU (9)
    12. Washington (10)
    13. Stanford (13)
    14. LSU (2)
    15. Oklahoma (11)
    16. UCLA (17)
    17. Mississippi (NR)
    18. Georgia (NR)
    19. Miami (14)
    20. Louisville (15)
    21. Iowa (16)
    22. Oklahoma State (18)
    23. Michigan State (19)
    24. Oregon (20)
    25. Auburn (NR)

    The post My AP top-25 football ballot: Alabama is the new No. 1, Texas and Wisconsin soar appeared first on College Hotline.

    Continue reading...

    by Jon Wilner
  2. J.R. Ewing

    J.R. Ewing Club Member Club Member

    Jun 17, 2011
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    Wlner's top 25 is always kinda weird.
  3. AeroBuff99

    AeroBuff99 Club Member Club Member

    Feb 16, 2006
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    Only weird if you compare it to other people. His take is each week should be based on the performance of the team up to that point, and with only one game played, opens it up for big movements. It changes each week with big movements. He doesn't keep at team at a spot just because they win, or necessarily drop them if they lose. Depends on how they played in that game and how others did in their games.
  4. J.R. Ewing

    J.R. Ewing Club Member Club Member

    Jun 17, 2011
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    He dropped OSU from 1 to 7 after they blew out Bowling Green 77-10. 67 points was the largest margin of victory that week.
  5. CitizenKane

    CitizenKane Club Member Club Member

    Oct 22, 2013
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    the USAToday 1-128 rankings came out today and basically they flipped CSU and our positions. CU is now 86. Completely laughable.
  6. J.R. Ewing

    J.R. Ewing Club Member Club Member

    Jun 17, 2011
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    Paul Myerberg sucks. He's said some real dumb stuff in the past.
    CitizenKane likes this.
  7. CarolinaBuff

    CarolinaBuff Unintelligent and deplorable Club Member

    Sep 14, 2006
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    I agree with putting alot of emphasis on the quality of the opponent but he takes it too far by giving teams more credit for losing on the road against a quality opponent than blowing out a cupcake at home.
  8. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

    Mar 20, 2009
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    Where it's tough is with something like Notre Dame or TCU. ND played at UT in front of a record crowd and lost by 3 points in OT. Should they drop behind a TCU that managed a 59-41 home win over South Dakota State? The voters thought so.
    buffaholic and Duff Man like this.
  9. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

    Jul 11, 2006
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    Not really that tough IMO. Playing quality opponents needs to matter and the only way to make that happen is give credit to teams for losing to quality opponents in week one.
  10. buffaholic

    buffaholic Club Member Club Member

    Oct 5, 2008
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    How did TCU stay in the top 40?

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