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Week Two is vital for the Pac-12, albeit in a different manner than Week One.
Week One played out nationally, particularly by the Los Angeles schools — and not played very well, I’d add.
Week Two will unfold on the regional stage, with four games against the Mountain West and a fifth against a certain former MW school from Provo.
After losses in head-to-head matchups against the SEC, Brigham Young and, um, Eastern Washington, the conference can ill-afford a clunker of a Week Two.
Group of 5 losses count just as much as Power 5 losses. In some regards, they count more.
Oh, and there are two Power 5 no-win affairs, as well: Oregon-Virginia and Arizona State-Texas Tech.
In both cases, the Pac-12 is the home favorite, which means nobody notices victory but everybody sees defeat, especially the selection committee.
To the picks …
(Like the Trojans and Cougars, I’m hoping to bounce back from a disappointing performance.)
Last week: 3-4
Season: 3-4
Five-star special: 0-1
All picks against the spread
Lines taken from vegasinsider.com (opening lines used)
Not listed (FCS opponent): Arizona and Colorado
Byes: Stanford and Oregon State
BRIGHAM YOUNG (plus-4.5) at UTAH: Don’t know what to make of Utah, which handled FCS Southern Utah, or new quarterback Troy Williams. But we know BYU’s defense is decent after it held Arizona to 16 points, and we know Taysom Hill’s knee remained structurally sound. Also, we know that 4.5 points is a lot in the Holy War. Pick: Brigham Young.
UTAH STATE (plus-14) at USC: Crammed between Alabama and Stanford, this looked like an all-time trap game for the Trojans (14 points? yes, please!). But after the Week One embarrassment, the dynamic has changed — and not to Utah State’s advantage. Pick: USC.
WASHINGTON STATE (plus-12) at BOISE STATE: Nowhere in the Pac-12 lineup has Week One created a more deceiving point spread than here. The Cougars are much better than their loss to Eastern Washington indicates. This line is off by a touchdown, at least. Pick: Washington State.
VIRGINIA (plus-20.5) at OREGON: The Ducks looked largely Duck-like in throttling an FCS opponent (UC Davis). The Cavaliers looked mostly Cavalier-esque in losing to an FCS opponent (Richmond). As opposed to the instances of Week One results creating point spreads to take advantage of, this line seems spot on: The Ducks should win handily. Pick: Oregon.
UNLV (plus-25.5) at UCLA: The Bruins dominated in Las Vegas last season. This should be a repeat, with zero chance of a letdown after the loss in College Station. Pick: UCLA.
TEXAS TECH (plus-5) at ARIZONA STATE: ASU’s 44-13 victory over NAU wasn’t nearly as convincing as the final score indicates. This is a major jump in competition against a Big 12 team with a veteran quarterback and high-powered offense, which will expose leaks in the Sun Devils’ defense. Pick: Texas Tech.
CAL (plus-7) at SAN DIEGO STATE: Tough assignment for the Bears, who beat SDSU last season by four touchdowns. This isn’t the same Aztecs team, nor is it the same Cal defense — it’s worse. After their grand Down Under experience, the Bears encounter reality. Pick: San Diego State.
IDAHO (plus-35) at WASHINGTON: For all intents and purposes, this is Pac-12 vs. FCS — and not Washington State against FCS, in case you were wondering. Pick: Washington.
Straight-up winners: Utah, USC, Washington State, Oregon, UCLA, Texas Tech, San Diego State and Washington
Five-star special: Washington State. As noted, I expect the Cougars to not only cover the spread but win the game. Good chance we look back on this as one of the easiest picks of the season.
* Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline
The post Pac-12 football picks: USC, Washington State bounce back while Oregon rolls appeared first on College Hotline.
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by Jon Wilner