Colorado Recruiting Over a 5 Year Period

[jizzrag85]

I was reading an interesting article that a Ute writer wrote for 247 and it got me wondering what the Buffs would look like. I took the 5 highest rated and 5 lowest rated recruits in each class from 2016-2020. A few things to note:

*I didn’t include transfers
*2016 and 2017 each had a player not rated, I took the next guy on the list.
*Moretti. He really skewed the average and he unfortunately could never contribute so I used Laviska Shenault as he was the 6th highest rated. I’ll add the difference below.
*I included Clayton for now


Cumulative class averages:

2016 - .8353
2017 - .8521
2018 - .8449
2019 - .8491
2020 - .8576

5 year bottom 5:

2016 - .80494
2017 - .82024
2018 - .81006
2019 - .82482
2020 - .8193

5 year top 5:

2016 - .86308
2017 - .88312 with LS, .90046 with Moretti.
2018 - .87454
2019 - .88658
2020 - .9021

 

[Duff Man]

Bottom five of classes is killing us.

 

[jizzrag85]

I think we still have work to do with the bottom of the classes and raising that floor. For reference (just based off 2020) a championship level class looks like this:

Bottom 5: .86744
Top 5: .99456
Cumulative average: .9365

 

[CPVbuff]

I think we still have work to do with the bottom of the classes and raising that floor. For reference (just based off 2020) a championship level class looks like this:

Bottom 5: .86744
Top 5: .99456
Cumulative average: .9365

Good data. I do think this year is different. I assume you have the bottom 5 as

Watt 8197.
Stacks 8113
Striker 8378
Passarello 8158
Lichtenhan. 8169


First, the punter is necessary and one Of the highest rated in country. Brings down the average but should probably not be considered.

Striker is a DB that is recruited to make the quickest impact as a JC. So the perspective might be a little different

Stacks and Lichtenhan - I extremely excited about both. Huge upside. I want them both.

Passarello, ok I’m pretty neutral. But a hardcore blocking TE is very functional and critical. If he can block are we really concerned about his ratings with respect to down field receiving threat?

So this year that low (bottom 5) number is that concerning.

 

[jizzrag85]

Good data. I do think this year is different. I assume you have the bottom 5 as

Watt 8197.
Stacks 8113
Striker 8378
Passarello 8158
Lichtenhan. 8169


First, the punter is necessary and one Of the highest rated in country. Brings down the average but should probably not be considered.

Striker is a DB that is recruited to make the quickest impact as a JC. So the perspective might be a little different

Stacks and Lichtenhan - I extremely excited about both. Huge upside. I want them both.

Passarello, ok I’m pretty neutral. But a hardcore blocking TE is very functional and critical. If he can block are we really concerned about his ratings with respect to down field receiving threat?

So this year that low (bottom 5) number is that concerning.

I actually glossed over stacks at the bottom and used Jackson, I’ll have to update the first post!

 

[jizzrag85]

First post has been edited and dropped the bottom 5 average below 2019. MT has work to do in 2021.

 

[Duff Man]

Good data. I do think this year is different. I assume you have the bottom 5 as

Watt 8197.
Stacks 8113
Striker 8378
Passarello 8158
Lichtenhan. 8169


First, the punter is necessary and one Of the highest rated in country. Brings down the average but should probably not be considered.

Striker is a DB that is recruited to make the quickest impact as a JC. So the perspective might be a little different

Stacks and Lichtenhan - I extremely excited about both. Huge upside. I want them both.

Passarello, ok I’m pretty neutral. But a hardcore blocking TE is very functional and critical. If he can block are we really concerned about his ratings with respect to down field receiving threat?

So this year that low (bottom 5) number is that concerning.

This is every class ever signed. You can justify just about any player if you try hard enough.

 

[Buffnik]

Bottom five of classes is killing us.

Yep. As a general rule of thumb, I'd like to see us get that number over .83 for the 2021 class and going forward. It's a sizable jump for this year, but I think it will be a smaller class so it's a reasonable goal. And going forward with the assumption that the HCMT program and long-term recruiting that starts with HS Freshmen has had time to get established, I think it's also reasonable to maintain that standard from 2022 onward.

I look forward to re-visiting this thread. This year, I assume the numbers get real pretty at the top if we sign Clayton. Then, I think this should be an annual thing to look at the rolling numbers, maybe with 4- or 5-year averages included for the data points.

 

[Buffnik]

Good data. I do think this year is different. I assume you have the bottom 5 as

Watt 8197.
Stacks 8113
Striker 8378
Passarello 8158
Lichtenhan. 8169


First, the punter is necessary and one Of the highest rated in country. Brings down the average but should probably not be considered.

Striker is a DB that is recruited to make the quickest impact as a JC. So the perspective might be a little different

Stacks and Lichtenhan - I extremely excited about both. Huge upside. I want them both.

Passarello, ok I’m pretty neutral. But a hardcore blocking TE is very functional and critical. If he can block are we really concerned about his ratings with respect to down field receiving threat?

So this year that low (bottom 5) number is that concerning.

I agree with not including specialists since the ratings are done differently by the sites for them. You have to include JUCOs, though. They're an integral part of the class and could just as easily be in the Top 5 as the Bottom 5.

 

[jizzrag85]

I agree with not including specialists since the ratings are done differently by the sites for them. You have to include JUCOs, though. They're an integral part of the class and could just as easily be in the Top 5 as the Bottom 5.

I can adjust everything if that’s the consensus of everyone here about kickers and punters. I was also thinking that I could update this year over year to see the differences over time. I think more than anything, these numbers highlight how the classes compare.

 

[Buffnik]

I can adjust everything if that’s the consensus of everyone here about kickers and punters. I was also thinking that I could update this year over year to see the differences over time. I think more than anything, these numbers highlight how the classes compare.

The reason I like the idea of a 4-year rolling average is that it gives a comparison snapshot of the level of talent on the team from year to year. Not perfect (guys leave, JUCOs are only around for 1-3 years, transfers come in, etc.), but I think it would give an indication of the talent trend and over time will tell us if this analysis has any validity as we compare that talent trend to our season records.