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Do Freshman QB's improve? SMQ breaks it down...

Darth Snow

Darth Snow

Hawaiian Buffalo
Club Member
Junta Member
So what are our hopes for Little Hawk? Well, statistically, he has a great chance of being.... AVERAGE.

http://www.sundaymorningqb.com/2008/6/17/553536/freshman-quarterback-revie

Quick results: QB's revert to the mean in their second seasons. Only a very few QB's showed continued improvement season to season, and those are usually ballyhooed recruits that go into the NFL.
Caveat: SMQ made NO attempt to bring the offensive line play, Wide receiver play, etc. into the equation. His theory was that a large enough sample size would make all things equal. I don't know if he reached a large enough sample, but it sure seemed to be enough to get a rough conclusion.

His predictions based on the results:

What that means for current sophomores going forward: I'd expect Sam Bradford's sky-high freshman numbers to come plummeting to earth, with an efficiency in the 135-145 range; ditto Case Keenum at Houston, who opened up with a rating last year over 145. Cody Hawkins, T.J. Yates and Adam Weber are all still at least nominally competing for their positions, which says something in and of itself. They might improve slightly, but by and large will probably look the same inconsistent/consistently mediocre quarterbacks they were as freshman.
Click to expand...

I looked up Cody's passer rating for last season. The "average" passer rating was about 131. Cody's is 119. I happen to think it should have been a lot higher due to an abnormally high number of dropped TD's and that Cody showed improvement through most of the season. However, the statistics show that the MOST we can hope out of Cody is something in the 135 range on a consistent basis. It is more likely it will be lower. However, Joel Klatt's best season was his first, and during that season he had a 140 rating (for comparison, his 2nd season Klatt had a 115 rating!)...

I think we can all agree it would be great if Cody could hold onto something like the form Klatt showed in his first season. So it's not all doom and gloom, but the Ballenger lovers could have a point of contention if Cody does not improve.


RankPlayerPosClGmPattPcompComppctIntIntpctPydsYdspattTDsTDpctRating

80Cody Hawkins, ColoradoQBFR13463263 56.8017 3.673015 6.5122 4.75 119.8
29Joel Klatt, ColoradoQBSO11358233 65.0810 2.792614 7.3021 5.87 140.2
 
Good info! I can buy into the stats to a degree, but there are too many variables to draw any real conclusions on an individual basis. If CU had five seniors on the line last year, or a 2,000-yard senior running back, we would be talking about the Buff offense taking a step back.

As the players around the quarterback improve, the quarterback play will magically improve as well.:thumbsup:
 
SMQ made the point (several times) that the purpose of the study was simply to find out if QB's actually improve (in the college game at least) after their freshman year as common wisdom suggests.

By and large, he found that they don't. What you see is what you get. Basically, it just means that Cody is what most of us thought he was: A damn decent college/system QB (or at least, he should be) with serious physical limitations.

He can't win games alone or pull the team across the finish line, but he sure can be a damn good "cog" that makes the offense run.

However, we can always hope that the extra weight he put on this last offseason will change him into a world beater...
 
It would be sorely disappointing should Cody's TD:INT ratio fail to improve over the next few seasons.
 
Well if nothing else he should have had +5 TD's or so this season due to drops alone.

Even if his TD #s don't rise all that much (or at all) I would be supremely happy to see those INT's continue to drop like they did in the last few games of the regular season.

Especially with the way our D is going to get lit up this year. Proliferation of spread + lack of DB's = BAD
 
Klatt's first season he was also throwing to DJ Hackett and Derek McCoy... anybody's numbers would drop after losing both of those guys at once.
 
FallenSkye said:
Well if nothing else he should have had +5 TD's or so this season due to drops alone.
Click to expand...

Agreed, but you can say that about a lot of quaterbacks...everyone has passes dropped, many for touchdowns, it is just part of the game! In a perfect world...haha yeah right..:smile2:
 
On balance, he's right. A QB is only as good as the team around him unless he's a superstar. I don't think anybody here would classify Cody as a superstar. He does have a great chance to improve his stats based solely on the upgrades in talent around him.
 
Honestly if D. Scott is half the player we hope Cody should improve is TD/int ration and comp %, He'll likely throw for less yards but who cares.
 
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