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Future MWC: is this realistic?

Buffnik

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member

Notably, even the person who created this seems to assume that Stanford & Cal would drop football or go independent before joining this conference.

Personally, I think this is likely to happen in some form. However, I'd expect it to be more like when the Big 8 added UT, aTm, TTU and **** bailer where they called it a merger instead of an expansion... agreeing on completely new by laws and it being a new conference for media negotiations.
 
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That is definitely going to be a merger and the MWC commissioner will assume the same position for the PAC. GK is as good as gone at this point.

The reason? The PAC is legislated in college sports as an Automatic Five and that carries more weight than what is being floated as Power Two. If a merger isn't going to work, the MWC schools can dissolve the MWC and join the PAC. The PAC name will live because of that legislation.
 
If Arizona, Oregon and Washington join the Big12 wouldn't OSU, WSU, Utah and ASU have no choice but to join the MWC, considering MWC members are hamstrung by buyouts?
 
H.E. Pennypacker said:
If Arizona, Oregon and Washington join the Big12 wouldn't OSU, WSU, Utah and ASU have no choice but to join the MWC, considering MWC members are hamstrung by buyouts?
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I know of no corporate organization, partnership, or sports conference where a super majority of the owners/members can't vote to change the rules at any time. Hell, even the ACC's grant of rights can be broken with enough votes.

At the next conference business meeting:
CSewe: I move to lower the conference exit penalty to $1.
SDSU: I second.
Chair: that motion requires __ votes to pass, all in favor?

And yes, it would be that easy - if you have the votes. And they'll have the votes if it comes to that.
 
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Good point. I've heard if that happened in the ACC, it would take 8 teams to do that. Let's assume it would be the same for the MWC. The PAC 12 would have to take 8 MWC members. This would probably be more likely if Stanford and Cal don't stand in the way.
 
PAC MAN said:
Those PAC leftovers are not joining the MWC. It will be MWC schools moving to the PAC because the PAC is legislated in as an A5 school despite that P2 noise.
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How many votes does it take to dissolve the MWC? That would be the number the PAC12 would have to take
 
Buffnik said:
Notably, even the person who created this seems to assume that Stanford & Cal would drop football or go independent before joining this conference.
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While certainly a plausible scenario, I'll briefly say Cal's stomach for dropping football is much, much lower than the common internet myth. Many in admin recognize the benefits (exposure, alumni relations, and donations) of D1 football, the chancellor is very pro-sports, and several very big donors are very tied to the program. And then there's the whole stadium debt thing.

That said, Cal might be left with little choice at some point.

OSU and WSU, I will say, I hate to see relegated to the MWC. They have (mostly) great fans. On the other hand, I'd enjoy watching late-night games of OSU and WSU playing Boise and a couple other MWC teams, especially if Utah ends up there (and maybe ASU too).

Utah and ASU are really in a tricky spot. The general consensus as of late seems to suggest the Big XII has comfortable room for one more (assumption is Arizona is the choice there), but can get the money from Fox and ESPN for a very particular three more (add UW and UO). That makes an unfortunate amount of sense, and ASU and Utah would be double-dipping in small-ish (if growing) states. I think there's a legit chance ASU and Utah are screwed.

Or hey, maybe we're all wrong, the PAC 9 finds an acceptable (enough) deal, and chugs along for a few more years. Going to be an interesting few weeks. I personally think a media deal will surely be found by the start of the season, and after that decisions are made. But of course I thought there was no way the media deal would take longer than Christmas, then March, then early summer...
 
What I think we are seeing play out is how the "dregs" of the P5, then 4, then 2 are eventually going to be weeded out.

The best properties have been pulled from the PAC. They'll pull the best properties from the MWC.
 
PAHIBuff said:
The big mystery to me is that Utah appears to be sitting on its hands while the PAC dissolves around them.
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Utah learning the PAC may be crumbling:
Not Listening Dumb And Dumber GIF
 
PhillyBuff said:
We did that... guess. our analysis of the situation happened much faster that Utah so far.
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All signs point to CU being the primary target for the Big 12, too. History, market, bridging to BYU, championship potential, good ratings and attendance even when going 4-8 & 1-11 the past 2 years, academic elevation, ability to fill later time slots for media partners, further destabilizing the Pac to make other targets there more attainable, and stack on the Prime Effect for these coming years heading into the next round of negotiations & realignment.

CU was almost certainly the main conversation for #13 because it works on every level for the conference.
 
Not possible.

Apple TV, Stanford and Cal is already lock step with the PAC 6. They don't even need the MWC teams since they aren't going to be on cable. Whoever is willing to pay the exit fee will join the PAC on Apple TV if the PAC wants them. The MWC is getting 4 million per school. They have zero chance of getting any school in the PAC or P5.
 
#1 pick said:
Not possible.

Apple TV, Stanford and Cal is already lock step with the PAC 6. They don't even need the MWC teams since they aren't going to be on cable. Whoever is willing to pay the exit fee will join the PAC on Apple TV if the PAC wants them. The MWC is getting 4 million per school. They have zero chance of getting any school in the PAC or P5.
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I think it requires 8 to be an FBS conference in the NCAA. If Stanford's the leader: Rice & Tulane will be the first backfills to get to that number, as we've been discussing. I'm not convinced that the academic elites have ever loved the idea of SMU.
 
#1 pick said:
Not possible.

Apple TV, Stanford and Cal is already lock step with the PAC 6. They don't even need the MWC teams since they aren't going to be on cable. Whoever is willing to pay the exit fee will join the PAC on Apple TV if the PAC wants them. The MWC is getting 4 million per school. They have zero chance of getting any school in the PAC or P5.
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If they want just six, they could be forced down to FCS where 6 is the minimum. Must have at least 8 teams to stay FBS.
 
What screws college football, is the fact that there are no mechanisms to achieve parity.

Viewers want to watch good contests. The NFL has the draft and some economic controls. They have decent parity, and most of their games are considered worth watching.

But in college the rich will get richer, at an ever faster pace. The fact they put in The Portal and NIL guarantees this, and leaves the small schools with shallow pockets, playing for pride and love of sports.


A game between the #12 and #15 teams in a particular conference, is not going to be a hot item. The media and the better teams will have issues as time goes on.

Conferences/teams selling directly to the viewer?

I don't see a good answer.
 
cu3x said:
What screws college football, is the fact that there are no mechanisms to achieve parity.

Viewers want to watch good contests. The NFL has the draft and some economic controls. They have decent parity, and most of their games are considered worth watching.

But in college the rich will get richer, at an ever faster pace. The fact they put in The Portal and NIL guarantees this, and leaves the small schools with shallow pockets, playing for pride and love of sports.


A game between the #12 and #15 teams in a particular conference, is not going to be a hot item. The media and the better teams will have issues as time goes on.

Conferences/teams selling directly to the viewer?

I don't see a good answer.
Click to expand...

I believe some potential answers lies in the FCS ranks. A football only conference which is the MVFC is easily the best FCS conference and it could be argued that conference could be better than the MWC.

Due to some FCS schools moving up and realignment, two sets of conferences are merging their football operations. The WAC is hooked up with the ASUN and the OVC is doing the same with the Big South. If those conferences get stronger in football as a result, then the template for football only conferences could be there.
 
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