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Home Court Advantage & PPG Home/Away

jgisland

Club Member
Club Member
I have put together a bunch of stats and will post ones I find interesting as the season goes on. Here are a couple on Home vs Away Point Per game scoring as well as one on Home Court Advantage for last year. Home court advantage is calculated on Home Win % - Away Win %.




TeamHome PPGAway PPGDiffHCA factor (Home Winning Percent - Away Winning Percent)
ARIZONA79.973.76.231.304
ARIZONA ST64.763.31.434.5029
CALIFORNIA7668.27.832.706
COLORADO84.77410.755.1136
OREGON72.865.47.422.5274
OREGON ST72.665.76.913.3928
STANFORD68.963.75.228.5425
UCLA70.769.31.440.1515
USC66.366.20.134.2857
UTAH71.363.18.222.6006
WASHINGTON90.576.813.750
WASHINGTON ST75.869.8626.5734



A couple of noteworthy things.

1) CU played very well at home last year, scoring 10.7 PPG more at home than on the road and winning 55% more games at home than on the road.

2) UCLA didn't score many more pts at home than away (1.4), but won 40% more games at home than on the road. This year UCLA will be playing their "Home" games at the Los Angeles Sports Arena which is right next to USC as Pauley Pavilion is being renovated.

Good article on their attempted adjustment to their new home here.

3) Washington was a monster at home
 
We're going to have some epic battles with Washington in upcoming years - some 105-103 type games.
 
It would be awesome if we did this exact thing for the last couple years. Find out who has had the best average home field advantage. I'm guessing Washington.
 
Another great post, jgisland.

YMSSRA

Someone please hit him with their rep stick for me.

******************

Where we need to get is to be almost impossible to beat at home for anyone except the true elites while winning 50% on the road. When we get there, we'll be a consistent tournament team.
 
Another great post, jgisland.

YMSSRA

Someone please hit him with their rep stick for me.

******************

Where we need to get is to be almost impossible to beat at home for anyone except the true elites while winning 50% on the road. When we get there, we'll be a consistent tournament team.
I hit him hard with my rep stick.
 
It would be awesome if we did this exact thing for the last couple years. Find out who has had the best average home field advantage. I'm guessing Washington.

btbuff you are quite correct, Washington has had the best home court advantage over the last 5 years. However the Buffs are # 2 in HCA and PPG differential.

Below is the info for HCA (Home court advantage, which is calculated by Home Court Win % - Road Win %) as well as PPG differential (calculated by avg home points per game scored - avg away points per game scored).

2010/20112009/20102008/20092007/20082006/20075 YR AVG
TeamHCA factor (Home Winning Percent - Away Winning Percent)
ARIZONA31.30432.3863636466.81812.59.04977375630.41166384
ARIZONA ST34.502938.7559808621.2532.0261437930.5555555631.41811604
CALIFORNIA32.70638.2352941238.8891.21212121215.5555555625.31957195
COLORADO55.113664.58347.05916.92331.666743.06902
OREGON22.527421.5311004815.29433.3333333332.1428571424.96576172
OREGON ST13.392829.2307692325.4816.04395604419.0283400818.63532692
STANFORD28.542545.8333333345.70134.5238095230.5555555637.03131118
UCLA40.151532.524.2113.33333333325.2136752125.08180697
USC34.285750.5681818263.8893.0303030332.8063241136.91587957
UTAH22.600619.607841.34638.636355.357135.50958
WASHINGTON5049.473684213022.581.6666666746.72807018
WASHINGTON ST26.573443.7510.795-5.7692307714.9797570918.06587617
PPG H/A DIFF
TEAM2010/20112009/20102008/20092007/20082006/20075 YR AVG
ARIZONA6.25.35.38.52.95.64
ARIZONA ST1.43.16.710.412.56.82
CALIFORNIA7.83.75-3.684.18
COLORADO10.72.62.27.513.37.26
OREGON7.43.58.99.60.66
OREGON ST6.91.4-2.86.23.12.96
STANFORD5.23.23.44.85.84.48
UCLA1.46.46.97.52.74.98
USC0.10.64.43.110.93.82
UTAH8.26.74.34.34.85.66
WASHINGTON13.72.61.415.298.38
WASHINGTON ST6-0.91.82.8-0.21.9
 
I'm not sure how I feel about the HCA stat. I think it's suggestive more than definitive. For example, let's say a team wins 90% of its games at home but 80% on the road. That team would be a +10. If another team wins 50% of its home games and 20% of its road games, it would be a +30. There's value here, but I think that it may point more to being a bad road team (or just plain bad or good) in a lot of cases versus being especially good at home.
 
I'm not sure how I feel about the HCA stat. I think it's suggestive more than definitive. For example, let's say a team wins 90% of its games at home but 80% on the road. That team would be a +10. If another team wins 50% of its home games and 20% of its road games, it would be a +30. There's value here, but I think that it may point more to being a bad road team (or just plain bad or good) in a lot of cases versus being especially good at home.

Completely agree, the HCA stat in itself only tells part of the story, you need to look at the overall team records in conjunction, but as the sample size gets bigger (5 years is still a relatively small sample size) it does start to actually tell a story. You also need to look at the bigger picture, PPG Home vs Road helps tell that as well as H vs R tempo.


There is an interesting read here on a study about college basketball HCA. It also may put you to sleep.......

Or is it all about the ball?
 
Ken Pomeroy has an article on HCA today featured in ESPN (insider access required). He used a similar methodology as I did, taking home margin of victory vs. away margin of victory. He did this for the all of DI but didn't publish the whole list. He basically found that HCA has more to do with altitude and travel than a hostile crowd, high altitude schools Utah Valley and DU were in the top 10. No mention of CU but worth the read.
 
Ken Pomeroy has an article on HCA today featured in ESPN (insider access required). He used a similar methodology as I did, taking home margin of victory vs. away margin of victory. He did this for the all of DI but didn't publish the whole list. He basically found that HCA has more to do with altitude and travel than a hostile crowd, high altitude schools Utah Valley and DU were in the top 10. No mention of CU but worth the read.

A lot of research suggests that HCA doesn't have a ton to do with a hostile crowd but rather is mostly from familiarity with surroundings. Of course altitude is another factor that definitely has an impact. It's more geared towards football, but advancednflstats.com has some good posts on the topic of HCA/HFA.
 
Boyle has made Boulder a nearly impossible place to win - we should have beaten Kansas in here last year but that was the best team we have faced in Boulder during Boyle's short but fabulous tenure here....it still baffles me how Wyoming beat us.
 
Maybe the band could signal it by blasting a funeral dirge -- dum, dum, da-dum, dum, dum, dum, dum, dum, dum, dum.
 
This isn't going to happen, but I think the student section should be moved into the north bleachers, that way the opposing team would have to basically walk through the student section to get to the locker room. I haven't walked out that tunnel, but I have to imagine if you had all of the students jumping up and down on those bleachers it would feel like the roof was going to cave in when you walked through there. Now that would be HCA.
 
Maybe the band could signal it by blasting a funeral dirge -- dum, dum, da-dum, dum, dum, dum, dum, dum, dum, dum.

I seriously want the other teams to be afraid to be here. Lets get a coffin in the student section, play funeral music, put fake blood near their bench, write the names and addresses of their family members on posters, bite heads off of bats, all sorts of fun **** we can do.
 
I seriously want the other teams to be afraid to be here. Lets get a coffin in the student section, play funeral music, put fake blood near their bench, write the names and addresses of their family members on posters, bite heads off of bats, all sorts of fun **** we can do.
start at the 00:20 mark. [video=youtube;6PQ6335puOc]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PQ6335puOc[/video]
 
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