Both Moody's and S&P reiterated their status as "Investment Grade". Which means they have the breadth and cash flow to pay their bills.
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I hope CSU joins the big XII
- Thread starter darth-horax
- Start date
Both Moody's and S&P reiterated their status as "Investment Grade". Which means they have the breadth and cash flow to pay their bills.
You do understand they are rated this way because they are state run institutions right?
Big 12 would love that. BYU and AFA as football-only. Would make a ton of sense. Would work very well if BYU was able to leverage AFA into the WCC for other sports, too.
In fact, that is probably the preferred scenario. At the least, it would be the way they'd want to go to get to 14. Cincy & Houston as full members with BYU & AFA as football-only.
Yes.
Moody's is rating default risk. There's a very small chance those bonds are defaulted. That is irrespective of the constrains placed on the cash flow of the school to service that debt. So while investing in those bonds is probably pretty safe, their very existence places the rest of the CSU system at a disadvantage.
Deleted member 807
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ramfan
Well-Known Member
I think some of you are going a bit overboard, both with assertions that the stadium project is solely in reference to B12 (or any) conference expansion and that CSU has no shot at being included in potential conference expansion.
As some of you may know, the current stadium, Hughes, is both a dump and off-campus. It needs $30+M in maintenance just to get the basics back on track (electrical, plumbing, lighting, etc). These dollars wouldn't have added anything to the stadium, just kept it from crumbling. Donors for such a project would likely be hard to come by and no new revenue streams would be created. As a result, your primary funding source is the general fund (student tuition/state dollars) and you're still left with an off-campus dump. The new stadium is financed through low interest bonds, offers a legitimate opportunity to pay for itself through a combination of donations and new revenue streams, brings the team and fans back home, and expands options for visiting and hanging out on campus. Sure, CSU has zero chance in conference realignment without a new stadium, but nothing really changes here if CSU is left out. CSU needs to be successful in competing within the MWC, in all phases, before worrying too much about what's next. The stadium is a necessary part of that.
I maintain that CSU has a shot at being included in this round of expansion. Probably not a great shot, overall, and arguably nearly zero if B12 only goes to 12, but there are certain criteria that easily get CSU into the top 4 if (IF) those turn out to be important to B12 decision-makers. Remember, this decision is made by university presidents, not coaches, not ADs, not fans. CSU is a peer academic institution to many B12 schools, would be a natural fit as a university, and has no major NCAA infractions. This is the sort of stuff that may be (hopefully is) very important to the presidents of B12 universities (who are typically academic people) and is not easily fixable for anyone lagging in these areas. Yes, CSU's product on the field and fan bases metrics are behind others on the list. I understand this is about money, and maybe those things end up being the most important, but they are also easily the most correctable factors a university could tackle in the future. The geography is a challenge and nothing changes that. I get it - CSU is little brother, is terrible, blah blah, but this process isn't about football recruiting and may well not be about immediate impact on the field/conference. If the B12 places significant value on long-term potential then CSU has a shot if they go to 14.
As some of you may know, the current stadium, Hughes, is both a dump and off-campus. It needs $30+M in maintenance just to get the basics back on track (electrical, plumbing, lighting, etc). These dollars wouldn't have added anything to the stadium, just kept it from crumbling. Donors for such a project would likely be hard to come by and no new revenue streams would be created. As a result, your primary funding source is the general fund (student tuition/state dollars) and you're still left with an off-campus dump. The new stadium is financed through low interest bonds, offers a legitimate opportunity to pay for itself through a combination of donations and new revenue streams, brings the team and fans back home, and expands options for visiting and hanging out on campus. Sure, CSU has zero chance in conference realignment without a new stadium, but nothing really changes here if CSU is left out. CSU needs to be successful in competing within the MWC, in all phases, before worrying too much about what's next. The stadium is a necessary part of that.
I maintain that CSU has a shot at being included in this round of expansion. Probably not a great shot, overall, and arguably nearly zero if B12 only goes to 12, but there are certain criteria that easily get CSU into the top 4 if (IF) those turn out to be important to B12 decision-makers. Remember, this decision is made by university presidents, not coaches, not ADs, not fans. CSU is a peer academic institution to many B12 schools, would be a natural fit as a university, and has no major NCAA infractions. This is the sort of stuff that may be (hopefully is) very important to the presidents of B12 universities (who are typically academic people) and is not easily fixable for anyone lagging in these areas. Yes, CSU's product on the field and fan bases metrics are behind others on the list. I understand this is about money, and maybe those things end up being the most important, but they are also easily the most correctable factors a university could tackle in the future. The geography is a challenge and nothing changes that. I get it - CSU is little brother, is terrible, blah blah, but this process isn't about football recruiting and may well not be about immediate impact on the field/conference. If the B12 places significant value on long-term potential then CSU has a shot if they go to 14.
Deleted member 807
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CSU can dream but they are not a favorite to move up, they are probably moving down the list over time. They clearly weren't in the first school out position this time.
The university presidents make the final decisions but they don't make decisions until they see the numbers and the numbers say CSU doesn't add value.
Does a new stadium double their average attendance? Even 40k a game (double the average over the past few years) would put them at the tail end of P5 attendance. Do they draw TV ratings? History says no.
Ram fans can dream but the crude reality is that they want to play at a $100 dollar table and all they have is a couple twenties.
CSU took their shot. They hired (and paid) McElwain, they built the stadium, they have dumped over $15 million a year into subsidizing athletics, mostly for football. It was a longshot and they missed. Time to move on but the cost are going to be with them for a long time to come.
Putting $30 million into Hughes wasn't going to fix things and wasn't going to bring any additional revenue. Borrowing multiples of that $30 million to build a new stadium on campus isn't going to pay for itself either. For CSU fans who want to keep up the illusion of playing big time college football it is the classic rock and a hard place.
fwiw, I think most everyone agreed that the stadium project was good for CSU, the city of Fort Collins and the state of Colorado.
I was glad to see that it happened.
In terms of being added to the Big 12, I'd be very surprised.
What I do see as very likely is that if and when the next round of P5 expansion occurs, moving it to a P4 by breaking up the Big 12... that KSU, ISU, Baylor, TCU would be left out of that and invite CSU to join them in a new Big 12 that would easily be the best G6 conference.
ramfan
Well-Known Member
Statements like this are just as delusional as homer CSU fans claiming the B12 is a lock. Yes, under certain criteria CSU has no chance. Under certain criteria they do. None of us know what will truly be important here. I think you're overlooking the positives of CSU. It's not a little podunk school in the middle of farm country anymore, no matter what you might believe.
ramfan
Well-Known Member
Same. I'm skeptical, mostly because CSU clearly hasn't earned it on the field lately and no one cares about 1994 or whatever. If anything, CSU may be more (possibly) in play for whatever happens next. That's ok.
Deleted member 807
Guest
Additional revenue streams like Lady Gaga concerts and weddings is nothing to sneer at.
[snicker]
None can deny that $30M at Hughes could buy some impressive shrubbery. Maybe a labyrinth and topiary sculptures like from Edward Scissor Hands. I'd pay a few bucks to walk through something like that if the submarine races up at horsetooth aren't in session. Just think of the potential for crop circles!
[snicker]
None can deny that $30M at Hughes could buy some impressive shrubbery. Maybe a labyrinth and topiary sculptures like from Edward Scissor Hands. I'd pay a few bucks to walk through something like that if the submarine races up at horsetooth aren't in session. Just think of the potential for crop circles!
CsquaredCC
Well-Known Member
The one thing I am enjoying more than anything from this process is the giant piece of humble pie the Boise State fans are eating in all of this. There is not a more insufferable fan base in the MWC (or the country for that matter). Reports that CSU and AFA are apparently above the Broncos on the list of expansion candidates is driving the Boise State fans completely insane. It really is fun to watch.
http://denver.cbslocal.com/2016/08/31/csu-survives-first-cut-for-big-12-conference/
http://denver.cbslocal.com/2016/08/31/csu-survives-first-cut-for-big-12-conference/
What did you see to indicate that CSU was even close? Getting left out of the finalist group gives a good indication that not only are they not getting in, they aren't that close.
This doesn't say they have no chance. It does say that the chance they have is not really a practical hope much less expectation at this point and nothing indicates that will change in the forseeable future.
I would be interested in seeing the criteria in which CSU is a favorite because I can guarantee that isn't the criteria that the presidents are using in making the decision.
If it were about academic quality half the B12 would already be gone. About atractiveness of the campus and surrounding area most of the B12 would be D3.
It is about $$$$$$$$$$$$$$ and more $$$$$$$$$$$$$. Everything else is just a tiebreaker. CSU has done nothing to show they are close to the best fit when the money is counted.
They firmly believed that the run they went on under Petersen wasn't their peak as a program. Rather, they believed (still believe?) that it was the beginning of them establishing themselves as the Florida State of the west the same way FSU went from an all-women's college to a D1 football program almost overnight to become a sustained elite.
They supposedly are in the finalist group now
The final 6-8 (10?).
In all honesty, I think most here would agree that they do belong in the final 6-8. Problem is that the B12 is only expanding by two, Maaayybe 4 someday. I can't see any scenarios where they make the top two. Cincinnati, Houston and BYU are all well ahead of CSU. After those teams, though, I can see the possibility of getting in the top 4, but it's a real stretch.
CsquaredCC
Well-Known Member
Boise State fans just can't get their heads around the notion that most of the country views their program (and school) as a nice story, but not much else. At some point the program will come back to earth. The "Blue Turf" is cute and all, but it doesn't cover up the large scale structural issues the university has as a whole when it comes to certain expansion criteria. No television market and horrid academics are an anchor that I don't think Boise will be able to overcome when it comes to being a serious expansion candidate. This latest round of expansion is starting to drive that point home for me. Don't tell that to Boise fan - he gets upset.
Boise has built their program with some big subsidies from the school. The school is now under some financial pressure due to state funding cuts and the loss of some major corporate sponsors in the area. There is a question about how long they can maintain their budget to run the program like they do.
Even with all their winning they are still only averaging about 33,000 a game. The TV market is better than you give credit for. The population in the area is growing fast and they dominate the market but overall they don't offer the positive finances to interest a P5 conference.
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