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Not sure how it happened
- Thread starter Duff Man
- Start date
I will be expecting the worst and hoping for the best.
It's possible that we go undefeated and win the National Championship. I just cannot bring myself to believe that either scenario is probable at this point. If we turn out as bad as that 2-10, I'll be happy to shower you with all the rep and pictures of skinny crazy girls that I can find.
It is much more likely we go 2-10 than 14-0. I'm not being pessimistic, I'm being realistic.
We better beat CSU and Sac St. That's 2. Then we go to Fresno, which I think we should win, but we don't know much about our team and it is still a road game. WSU is better and won't be an easy road game. Then we have UCLA and ASU at home. Both of those teams destroyed us last year. UCLA will still have a lot more talent and speed, I'm not sure about ASU, but I'm not going to expect a win. I'm not even going to talk about the next three games. Arizona on the road we should have a good chance, but again it is a road game so who knows how we show up. Washington destroyed us last year, will have much more talent again, so I won't count on that one. Utah gave us the win last year and I don't consider this to be a gimme either. I think they will be tough.
I personally think we go 4-8 at best. In order to get to 6 wins, everything would have to go perfect. That doesn't happen.
After reading some of the posts on this thread I began to think about what it is going to take for this team to become bowl eligible. I started by looking at last year’s schedule compared to this years. We trade a home game against Cal for a home game against Sac St. That is a big plus. Instead of traveling to Hawaii, we are traveling to Fresno. I value this as a wash. Then we have a bye instead of traveling to Ohio State, which is a huge benefit. In PAC-12 play we then swap home/away with our opponents. On the positive is we are @ USC and OU, which are likely losses, and we get ASU, UCLA, UU, and Washington at home. Negatives are we are now traveling to WSU and U of A, which we would have a much better chance of winning at home. In PAC-12 we will get a slight scheduling benefit this year over last year.
Looking at all 13 games last year there were 6 that we had a change of winning; Hawaii, Cal, CSU, WSU, AU, and UU, and we were able to win 50% of those contests. Part of that low percent I feel was due to first year coaches. In order to win the needed 6 games my guess is that the Buffs have to have a chance to win 9 games. The increase from 50% to 67% winning percentage in close games will need to come from the coaches having the players mentally and physically prepared, and then calling the right plays and schemes to give the players the best chance to execute. Whether there are 9 games that we have a chance of winning will come on the execution of the players, and right now that is a huge question mark. Who is the QB, who will be the go to WR, will we have a TE threat, how many freshmen play on the DL and in the secondary? There is cause for optimism if you feel many of these questions will have a positive answer, but for me it is still wait and see.
Looking at all 13 games last year there were 6 that we had a change of winning; Hawaii, Cal, CSU, WSU, AU, and UU, and we were able to win 50% of those contests. Part of that low percent I feel was due to first year coaches. In order to win the needed 6 games my guess is that the Buffs have to have a chance to win 9 games. The increase from 50% to 67% winning percentage in close games will need to come from the coaches having the players mentally and physically prepared, and then calling the right plays and schemes to give the players the best chance to execute. Whether there are 9 games that we have a chance of winning will come on the execution of the players, and right now that is a huge question mark. Who is the QB, who will be the go to WR, will we have a TE threat, how many freshmen play on the DL and in the secondary? There is cause for optimism if you feel many of these questions will have a positive answer, but for me it is still wait and see.
Soooo...were gonna win?
Pessimistic versus realistic is all a matter of perspective, my friend. That said, I wouldn't disagree that we're probably closer to two wins than we are to 14. However, in my opinion, your best case scenario of a four-win season would be slightly disappointing to me. I get that lowballing the expectations is the thing to do right now, but I maintain that this 2, 3 win season talk is a bit much. Again, just my two cents, and like I said, if the season turns out as disastrous as you predict, I'll be man enough to give you your props.
If you have to say you're not pessimistic but rather you're realistic, you're pessimistic.
People are making too big of a deal bout the FSU game. They have one of (either 1 or 2) worst home record the past 5 years I believe at 7-20. Yes it's our first road game of the year but it's not like we're going to Autzen to face Oregon.
People are making too big of a deal bout the FSU game. They have one of (either 1 or 2) worst home record the past 5 years I believe at 7-20. Yes it's our first road game of the year but it's not like we're going to Autzen to face Oregon.
What's our road record over the last 5 years?
Exactly. We're due. :wink2:
Yes I get that but people have been making this Fresno game seem like we're playing some excellent team who never loses at home just because we lost to them in 2001 and they have Carr's brother now. A 7-20 record at home, in the WAC is really bad. Will it be easy? No, but lets stop pretending that we're playing the 2001 Fresno team.
I don't want props if I'm right. I don't want to be right.
I get what you are saying but four of those last five years started with Dan Hawkins as the coach.
The Utah game last year was huge. Utah wasn't a great team but they were a conference foe with a winning record and something to play for. CU made some mistakes and had some opportunities to fold up and lose and didn't. Ending that season with a flight home from a winning game was huge.
Fresno is a team that is going to be waiting to be beaten. They will be coming off a beating by Oregon the week before, they have a new offense and they haven't exactly been dominant at home recently.
I think that Embree has been focused on attitude and the Buffs will have an expectation of winning at Fresno instead of the expectation of losing on the road (and at home) that they had under Hawk. For much of the past five years we had already lost the game before we ever got off the plane, it was just a question of figuring out how. I don't think that is going to be the case for the Fresno game.
The more often you are wrong the better off the world is
Uh... where in the hell are you getting 7-20? They have gone 14-9 against 1-A opponents at home in the last five years.
Phil Steele's article
Steele is smoking crack apparently.
Fresno State has nowhere near a 7-20 home record over the last five years.
I'm not saying Fresno is good at all, although I recall a recent game where they went toe to toe with Wisconsin. I am, however, saying that we suck balls on the road. Maybe the Utah game changed all that, maybe it didn't. We'll see. Until then, I have a hard time penciling in a W there.
I'm starting to drink the kool aid here and think you hippies may actually get 6 wins this year. I had you down for 4-5 wins and losing to Fresno and WSU but I'm thinking maybe you beat Fresno now. I don't think you win at WSU but I still think you shock one team in the PAC. I'm hoping UCLA is the one. I think your younger players will step up and you'll figure out the QB situation. The question that keeps popping up in my mind is your team speed against the rest of the PAC. I don't think a desire to win, injuries or "not playing hard" will be factors this year. It will be speed at key positions. Best of luck.
Well if you're thinking we get six now, which two other games do you think we win if you're saying we start 4-1 with our loss to WSU and our surprise against UCLA?
somebody
Well-Known Member
Bite your tongue. Or someone's. And bring us the video.
Still having trouble adjusting to having posters here from other teams in our conference with intelligent, realistic post. We just didn't get that in the Big XII.
I agree with you on the speed issue. We are going to be a much faster team than we were last year which still means we will be one of the slowest overall teams in the PAC. We will be much faster at DB with the new guys and our new WRs will be a step forward as well.
We will also have an issue with maturity. Compared to other teams in the PAC we are going to be very short on contributing seniors and juniors. A lot of underclassmen who would be in depth or developmental roles on other teams will be seeing significant playing time.
The biggest step forward should be the attitude question. The coaches will have had a year to overcome the losing attitudes that permiated the team under Hawkins and this year over half the team will have never played for him. This should make a huge difference for us.
somebody
Well-Known Member
We're stooping to Reggie Jackson logic?
The Arizona Schools and Utah are in my mix. They are looking dodgy this year. Buffs beating UCLA is my personal hope. Bonus game is the Buffs beating furd which is my dream but I'm not losing any sleep over it.
You don't have the speed yet. Most of the PAC has track quality athletes in a variety of key offensive and defensive positions. One more year with players/schemes in place and you're there. A lot will depend on coaching. I think the attitude will be right but you can't coach speed. Still, you'll do much better at home this year and remember that several PAC schools have never visited Folsom. Therein lies an advantage...that and I think you win on the road a few times.
While I'd like to get UCLA, I'd REALLY like the suprise to be UW. Their fans are so confident that they are "back," and their coaches have been neg recruiting the hell out of us. UW fans are also convinced they are and always will be a tier above us in the pecking order, despite historically being the closest thing we have to a twin program and have conveniently forgotten how recently they had a winless season.
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Yeah, the game in Seattle was brutal. They weren't outright hostile. But they were smug little bitches. My favorite was
"How do you like being in a real conference?"
Uhhhhhh - the Big12 had as many, if not more, tough teams than the Pac.
Stadium is loud as **** at least