Official 2016 Head Coach Prediction Thread

[SINKRATZ]

It's a small class, so general rankings are going to be low. Average star rankings is where this class should be judged, and even by doing that, CU is still ranked 59th. They are, however, ranked ahead of the following P5 programs: NC State, VA Tech, Purdue, BC, Wake, Washington State, UVA, Illinois, Kansas, Indiana, UCF, Syracuse, Cincy, and Iowa State.

However, even this doesn't tell the story as there are teams like Akron, UMass and Hawaii that are ranked in the top 30 for avg stars but only because they have 1 or 2 total recruits but the one or both are 3*.

National ranking does not matter. We're not going head to head with Syracuse for players and they are not on our schedule in the foreseeable future, so how we rank compared to them does not matter.

Compare our classes to the rest of the Pac 12 and it's easy to see why we aren't winning.

 

[Buffnik]

Anyone else think that if MM had not beat OSU he would be gone?

One way to look at it is we get MM for another year because he fell ass backwards into a Pac 12 win.

It would have been hard to keep a coach who went winless in the conference 2 straight years.

I don't think it's fair to say someone fell ass backwards into a win. You win or you lose. Scoreboard. Besides, the Buffs controlled that football game. The frustration is that the team didn't separate and win comfortably in a game they looked very capable of doing so.

 

[leftybuff]

Anyone else think that if MM had not beat OSU he would be gone?

One way to look at it is we get MM for another year because he fell ass backwards into a Pac 12 win.

Yes. I still think there is a small outside chance he goes, but not real likely. The only way I see it happening is if there is somebody out there RG already has a backroom deal with who is letting the season play out. Not very likely at all.

 

[BuffaloB]

It's a small class, so general rankings are going to be low. Average star rankings is where this class should be judged, and even by doing that, CU is still ranked 59th. They are, however, ranked ahead of the following P5 programs: NC State, VA Tech, Purdue, BC, Wake, Washington State, UVA, Illinois, Kansas, Indiana, UCF, Syracuse, Cincy, and Iowa State.

However, even this doesn't tell the story as there are teams like Akron, UMass and Hawaii that are ranked in the top 30 for avg stars but only because they have 1 or 2 total recruits but the one or both are 3*.

I know it is not an exact science, and this class is small. I just use Rivals rankings, and for consistency don't jump around sites and pick and choose. CU 2013-2016 rivals rankings are 68,63,71,70, while other PAC 12 schools are much better. Washington 18,36,30,47 and CAL 32,46,29,32. Even look at the usual bottom PAC 12 teams; Washington State 53, 70, 55, 50 or Oregan St 39, 54, 71, 30.

I see lots of posts and have conversations with lots people with lots of "reasons" or "excuses". Bottom line is those who think it is unacceptable for whatever reason will continue to beat this drum, while apologists continue to try justify it and tell other side that it has been beaten to death and they should quit talking about it. I have don't have an opinion if it is a problem of coaching staff or administration limiting program somehow, but it is just not good enough.

 

[Buffnik]

First of all -- initial recruiting is not good enough. It has to improve a lot or we'll never see our Buffs climb very far out of this hole.

But I do want to stress that Rivals and similar sites focus on initial recruiting so it's not the whole story on the talent on the roster. JUCO transfers are lightly scouted and downgraded vs. a high school prospect in the ratings. Transfers from other programs are not included. Late signings don't cause a re-ranking (they're on to the next year). And attrition is not factored in. So you end up with a guy like P-Rich getting counted in UCLA's recruiting rank but not in CU's.

Plus, there have always been some things a bit off with the ranks. First, they focus on performance as a HS junior. So there are always a lot of very talented guys who blow up as seniors but don't ever get the rating they should. (Boise State used to live off those guys.) Also, different sites have different regional biases. (ESPN has a documented bias to the SEC region and neglect of the west coast, for example.) Finally, class size and the player being rated at his position skews things. (Embree's full class rated better than it was because there aren't a lot of FBs rated and CU got a bump from Powell and Norgard being rated Top 10s at the spot.)

I guess what I'm getting at is that the initial recruiting rating is just one piece of the puzzle. There are other ways to build a talented roster (signing senior standouts, player retention, grayshirting/redshirting/missions to be more veteran, bringing in JUCOs & transfers). Initial recruiting tells a story -- actually the biggest part of the story and has a direct correlation in the aggregate -- but it doesn't tell the whole story.

 

[buffaholic]

The other point we've discussed ad nauseum, but I think most agree with is that they're not reliable once you get much further outside let's say 40? 9th is a lot better than 24th. But 49th is kind of in the same ballpark as 64th. I don't think there's been any on-field correlation there.

One Yuri Wright signing bumps a class at that level. Yippee.

 

[MtnBuff]

The other point we've discussed ad nauseum, but I think most agree with is that they're not reliable once you get much further outside let's say 40? 9th is a lot better than 24th. But 49th is kind of in the same ballpark as 64th. I don't think there's been any on-field correlation there.

One Yuri Wright signing bumps a class at that level. Yippee.

Also sometimes a big difference between who signs on LOI day and who shows up for fall camp. Classes can be impacted by highly rated guys who are big academic risk. It can be another thing still to look at which players are still around 12-24 months after reporting day. Which guys are going to be victims of attrition due to academics, behavior, or simply a lack of desire to do the work at this level.

Recruiting does have to get better, much better. JL has raised the standard but that only accounts for a portion of the class and most of these guys won't impact for at least a couple years.

It may be dumb optimism but I think we will be a better team next year. Will we be better enough to save M2s job and take a step forward?

My biggest measure of recruiting is the number and quality of P5 offers our recruits have. Even with the smaller number of total recruits this class is well ahead of any of M2s prior classes. We still however do not have kids who have offers from UCLA, Oregon, USC, etc. In other words the schools we need to beat.

 

[PAHIBuff]

Next season sets up perfectly for Rick George to go in a few different directions, depending on the outcome. HCMM gets the opportunity to prove he can win. If he can't and the season starts going south again, RG can fire him mid season, make Leavitt the interim HC, and then remove the interim tag after the year. Solves the coaching search issue and would more than likely keep most of our all important 2017 recruiting class in tact.

This.

 

[buffaholic]

This.

If JL is here next year.

 

[SINKRATZ]

You guys can find every outlier you want to undermine recruiting rankings or explain away our sh**ty recruiting: "Yuri was a bust!" "Gillam was a 2-star!", but go back at look at Pac 12 rankings over the past 5-7 years - for the most part the teams in the top half versus the bottom half of the rankings are the teams you would expect to be there. CU has taken residency at or near the bottom and we're seeing the results.

 

[slider]

holic loves him some Yuri

 

[BuffinCali]

Next season sets up perfectly for Rick George to go in a few different directions, depending on the outcome. HCMM gets the opportunity to prove he can win. If he can't and the season starts going south again, RG can fire him mid season, make Leavitt the interim HC, and then remove the interim tag after the year. Solves the coaching search issue and would more than likely keep most of our all important 2017 recruiting class in tact.

Nice post! Supposing RG sticks to his comments that MM will be the coach next season.... If the Buffs win 6 games next year, they are bowling and there was improvement. Does he keep MM for achieving a .500 record?

 

[PAHIBuff]

Close call. Let's say we go got the Vegemite Mutton Human Rights Bowl vs Ball State, at 6-6, with a crappy recruiting class. Close call.

 

[Buffnik]

Nice post! Supposing RG sticks to his comments that MM will be the coach next season.... If the Buffs win 6 games next year, they are bowling and there was improvement. Does he keep MM for achieving a .500 record?

Close call. Let's say we go got the Vegemite Mutton Human Rights Bowl vs Ball State, at 6-6, with a crappy recruiting class. Close call.

Is this serious?

CU hasn't been to a bowl game in a decade. You don't consider firing the guy who gets you back. We're looking at a schedule with 9 Pac-12 games, away at Michigan and neutral vs an in-state rival on a 3-year bowl streak. If MacIntyre wins 6 games next year you should be on your knees thanking him while pledging RG an extra donation.

 

[PAHIBuff]

I know we disagree on this Nik but I still think the PAC 12 is a weak conference, behind the SEC and the B1G, and maybe equal to the B12 on a good day. I'll grant you that MM will keep his job at 6-6, but we will still suck. And he'll keep his job because it will be the path of least resistance.

 

[Duff Man]

I know we disagree on this Nik but I still think the PAC 12 is a weak conference, behind the SEC and the B1G, and maybe equal to the B12 on a good day. I'll grant you that MM will keep his job at 6-6, but we will still suck. And he'll keep his job because it will be the path of least resistance.

You say this over and over with very little reasoning. The Big 10 West and SEC East are just not very good. Honestly, it just seems like extreme personal bias because you dislike the style of play in the Pac-12 or something.

 

[Idot Buff]

I know we disagree on this Nik but I still think the PAC 12 is a weak conference, behind the SEC and the B1G, and maybe equal to the B12 on a good day. I'll grant you that MM will keep his job at 6-6, but we will still suck. And he'll keep his job because it will be the path of least resistance.

Not following your last sentence at all....path of least resistance for whom? Do you have any idea of what Rick George is all about? Go run a lap, bitch

 

[PAHIBuff]

Because it will be easy for RG to RATIONALIZE, after going to the Alpo Numchuk Bowl.

 

[PAHIBuff]

You say this over and over with very little reasoning. The Big 10 West and SEC East are just not very good. Honestly, it just seems like extreme personal bias because you dislike the style of play in the Pac-12 or something.

Nice dissection Duff. Yes, those halves of each conference are pretty average right now. Wisco, Neb, Fla, and Georgia won't be down for too long though, and the good halves of each conference are very very good.

 

[Darth Snow]

Pop quiz, do weak divisions count when assessing conference strength?

 

[PAHIBuff]

I think that getting teams into the playoffs counts. Not sure if the PAC would have a team in an 8 team configuration. Stanford marginal.

 

[ahoelsken]

Next year is all about going out and taking it. Watching the 2015 version of CU showed me a couple of things. One, they don't have a good grasp of basic situational football. Not knowing USC would go deep after a blocked FG isn't about recruiting.........its about piss poor coaching. Two, this staff plays not to lose. That's gotta stop if MM doesn't want to be collecting severance from us this time next year. Playing not to lose against UA isn't about recruiting-we had the talent to win that football game. We didn't because we played and called the game not to lose. We lost the Utah game in 2014 because MM didn't try to take the game from the Utes-he punted with 3 minutes to go, knowing full well our defense couldn't stop them.

 

[PAHIBuff]

Well, I'll give you Furd as a 7 or 8 seed….

 

[Duff Man]

I think that getting teams into the playoffs counts. Not sure if the PAC would have a team in an 8 team configuration. Stanford marginal.

Oh come on, Stanford would be a lock in an 8-team configuration.

BTW, the SEC West is living on reputation right now.

 

[PAHIBuff]

A little bit, but Bama might win the NC this year and Auburn, Miss, Miss State, and LSU are usually going to be one recruiting class away from being in the Top 10. Whereas USC, UCLA, AZ State, and Oregon are a mile wide and an inch deep.

 

[Buffnik]

 

[Duff Man]

Oh my.

 

[patebuff]

A little bit, but Bama might win the NC this year and Auburn, Miss, Miss State, and LSU are usually going to be one recruiting class away from being in the Top 10. Whereas USC, UCLA, AZ State, and Oregon are a mile wide and an inch deep.

My goodness

 

[MtnBuff]

A little bit, but Bama might win the NC this year and Auburn, Miss, Miss State, and LSU are usually going to be one recruiting class away from being in the Top 10. Whereas USC, UCLA, AZ State, and Oregon are a mile wide and an inch deep.

Well, the SEC is so superior that they do have the defending National Champion. Oh they don't, that can't be

Let the SEC schools schedule some decent OOC games including taking some trips outside of SEC country to play a few then they can talk.

 

[DBT]

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